Ranking the 2011 National League Cy Young Candidates

With just under a month left in the season, more and more talk will begin about postseason awards.

The awards debate exemplifies a dichotomy of two lines of thinking. There are the old-school writers who value traditional stats like win-loss record and ERA and the new-school who place more credence on fielding and team independent statistics.

Last year's selection of Felix Hernandez as the American League Cy Young winner, despite a 13-12 record, could represent a slight paradigm shift in voting. Or it could have just been a one-year exception as I'd venture to say most of the voters are still of the old-school ilk.

This article will not be primarily predicated on who I think will win the award, but rather who deserves it.

#6 Matt Cain

Innings: 196.0

Record: 11-9

ERA: 2.85

FIP: 2.82

WHIP: 1.07

K/9: 7.21

BB/9: 2.30

HR/9: 0.37

WAR: 5.1

Cain is one of six National League pitchers with a WAR above 5.0.

Cain has always been able to defy FIP and it's more predictive brother, xFIP with his unique ability to limit home runs much more than a typical pitcher otherwise would.

This year has been no different. Even for his own standards, this year as been pretty ridiculous. Just a 3.8 percent fly ball to home run ratio is microscopic.

By giving up so few homers, he's amidst of a career year.

His home runs per nine innings is behind only Charlie Morton and his FIP is good for sixth among starters. He's also posting a career best in walks per nine innings while maintaining his consistent strikeout rate.

Like all Giants starters, his record would be a lot better if it wasn't for a poor offense behind him.

#5. Madison Bumgarner

Innings: 181.2

Record: 10-12

ERA: 3.37

FIP: 2.70

WHIP: 1.23

K/9: 8.42

BB/9: 2.08

HR/9: 0.54

WAR: 5.0

This may be the first surpriser of the list, especially to those old-school supporters. Bumgarner is a prime example of how a pitcher's record is a horrible way of judging ability.

Bumgarner has surpassed virtually all projections this year en route to a terrific season.

His ERA is slightly bloated due to a .326 BABIP and 71.5 left on base percentage. On the other hand, you can say he's been a bit fortunate with his strikeout rate as his 81 percent contact rate and nine percent swinging-strike rate are much closer to that of Matt Cain and his 7.21 K/9.

Still, what he doesn't make up for with strikeouts as compared to his teammate Lincecum, he makes up for with excellent control.

He ranks sixth in WAR and strikeout-to-walk ratio, fourth in FIP and fifth in HR/9.

Sadly, because of his record, I doubt he will get any more than a couple of votes at best, which is a shame.

#4. Cole Hamels

Innings: 185.0

Record: 13-7

ERA: 2.63

FIP: 2.72

WHIP: 1.02

K/9: 8.22

BB/9: 1.85

HR/9: 0.58

WAR: 5.2

It's amazing just two years ago, many Phillies fans wanted him traded. A lack of understanding of the bad luck indicators (BABIP,HR/FB, and LOB%) will do that.

However, he's also improved since then. This year marks career bests in WHIP, walks, groundball-rate, line drive-rate, outside the zone swing percentage and first pitch strikes.

He doesn't quite have the durability as the top three pitchers, which hurts his Cy Young stock. He's among the league leaders in every important stat, including first in WHIP.

He gets the nod over the San Francisco Giants' pitchers right behind him for the overall better numbers of fielding independent metrics (FIP,xFIP,SIERA,walk-rate, groundball-rate, contact rate, etc.) and pitching in Citizens Bank Park rather than pitcher-friendly AT&T park.

#3. Cliff Lee

Innings: 203.2

Record: 16-7

ERA: 2.47

FIP: 2.64

WHIP: 1.03

K/9: 9.01

BB/9: 1.77

HR/9: 0.66

WAR: 5.9

The Phillies' big free agent signing has not disappointed. He's even improved in some aspects.

Even though he's walking more than last year( 0.76 BB/9 was impossible to repeat anyway), he's offset it by striking out more batters than at any point in his career.

Striking out over a quarter of batters this season bests last year's career mark of 22 percent. This is thanks to career bests in contact rate and swinging-strike rate.

His ERA, FIP and WAR are currently third in the National League while his total strikeouts and strikeout-to-walk ratio rank second.

His six shutouts blow away the rest of the National League. The two closest players each have two. He accounts for over 21 percent of all complete game shutouts thrown in the National League this year.

#2. Clayton Kershaw

Innings: 205.2

Record: 17-5

ERA: 2.45

FIP: 2.44

WHIP: 1.02

K/9: 9.71

BB/9: 2.19

HR/9: 0.57

WAR: 6.2

It's a bit surprising Kershaw didn't receive votes last year (Brett Myers and Bronson Arroyo did) despite posting a 2.91 ERA, 3.12 FIP, and 212 strikeouts.

But he's taken another step this year. Dropping his walks from 3.57 per nine innings to 2.19.

His contact percentage is at a career-best 76.5 perfect while he's also getting 11.2 percent of swinging strikes.

He's also throwing his slider harder and more often than at any point in his career.

Thus far, his ERA, FIP, WHIP and WAR are second in the NL and he leads the league in strikeouts.

At just 23-years-old, it's not a question of if he will win a Cy Young someday, but when.

Lee and Kershaw are neck and neck for runner up.

#1 Roy Halladay

Innings: 202.2

Record: 16-5

ERA: 2.49

FIP: 2.12

WHIP: 1.06

K/9: 8.66

BB/9: 1.15

HR/9: 0.40

WAR: 7.4

Halladay is primed to repeat as the Cy Young Award Winner.

He edges out Kershaw primarily due to his superior fielding independent statistics.

His 2.12 FIP is the best among starters by a fairly large margin, beating out Kershaw's 2.44.

His 7.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio leads the league by a large margin also. Teammate Cliff Lee is the next closest starter at 4.95.

Lots of strikeouts and ground-balls to go with pinpoint control and excellent durability is always a recipe for success.

Honorable Mention

Tim Lincecum

ERA: 2.75

FIP: 3.15

WAR: 4.1

Craig Kimbrel

ERA: 1.57

FIP: 1.10

WAR: 3.4

Ian Kennedy

ERA: 2.96

FIP: 3.50

WAR: 3.8

Jordan Zimmerman

ERA: 3.18

FIP: 3.16

WAR: 3.5

Daniel Hudson

ERA: 3.53

FIP: 3.23

WAR: 4.4

Zach Greinke and Chris Carpenter also could be included among the honorable mention as they've posted very good fielding independent numbers but have had not much good luck.

How I Think the Voting Would End Up as of Right Now

Of course there's a difference between who should be voted and who will be voted.

With some voters' mindsets stuck in the 30s, each year questionable pitchers receive votes that should go to more deserving pitchers.

With that in mind, here's how I think the voting would end up as of right now:

1. Roy Halladay

2. Cliff Lee

3. Clayton Kershaw

4. Ian Kennedy

5. Craig Kimbrel

6. Cole Hamels

7. Johnny Cueto

8. John Axford

9. Daniel Hudson

10. Tim Lincecum