Fantasy Football Rankings 2011: Who's No. 1, Adrian Peterson or Michael Vick?

So you're the lucky soul with the No. 1 overall pick in a traditional fantasy football draft, or you're that crazy dude who's willing to drop 50 bucks on one big-time player in an auction draft.

Who should you choose—Adrian Peterson or Michael Vick?

Choosing between AD and Vick may not be an age-old dilemma, but picking one or the other does invoke the timeless debate over whether to play it safe by going for the sure thing or to get greedy and risk the possibility of abject failure for the enticing potential of untold reward.

Okay, so maybe the modern-day decision isn't quite so dramatic (depending on what's riding on your fantasy league, of course), but it is worth considering nonetheless.

Adrian Peterson

Behind Door #1, we have Adrian Peterson, the All-World running back who sports the Purple and Gold of the Los Angeles Lakers Minnesota Vikings.

Peterson is about as close to a sure thing as there's ever been in fantasy football. All Day has never led running backs in fantasy points in a given season, but he's the only 'back who's finished top-five at the position in each of the four years since he came into the league. You can practically etch Peterson in stone for 1,300 yards and double-digit touchdowns, as he's produced at least that much every season so far.

As far as durability is concerned, AD is about as reliable as they come. He's missed only three games in four NFL seasons, thanks in part to his chiseled 6'1", 217-pound frame.

And if you're worried about fumbles, don't be. Peterson's fumbling problems are a thing of the past, as evidenced by the fact that he put the ball on the ground only once last season.

The addition of Donovan McNabb to the Vikings' quarterback pool should also make AD's life a bit easier and more productive. Assuming D-Mac fares better in Minny than he did in DC, opposing defenses won't be able to simply overload the box take away the run. McNabb will force teams to play honestly against the Vikes, thereby opening up more opportunities for Peterson to run free than if, say, Joe Webb or Tarvaris Jackson were to be the one taking snaps.

As good as Peterson is, you're going to need plenty of high-caliber fantasy players around him on your team to be effective. Of course, that's the case with just about every fantasy prospect...

Michael Vick

...Except for Michael Vick. ESPN fantasy football guru Matthew Berry put the case for Vick in simple terms during an appearance on Bill Simmons' podcast at the end of August. As he put it, if you pick Vick and he does over the course of 16 games what he did in 12 games last season, you win your league.

It's that simple.

Given what we saw from Vick in 2010, he has the potential to put together the greatest single-season performance in the long and illustrious history of fantasy football.

Greater than Peyton Manning in 2004. Greater than LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. Greater than Tom Brady in 2007.

And greater than Vick in 2010. Remember, Vick did his damage last season while playing in what was essentially a Kevin Kolb offense. The Eagles came into the season fully expecting Kolb to be their guy, though it became clear once Vick got his chance that the former would simply have to give way to the latter.

Now that the former is gone, Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg are free to tailor Philly's attack to Vick's particular and considerable talents.

Vick will also be surrounded by arguably the best collection of skill players in the league, including running back LeSean McCoy, receivers DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and (eventually) Steve Smith, and tight end Brent Celek.

With all of that being said, there are also plenty of red flags surrounding Vick as a potential first-overall selection.

First and foremost, Vick was among the most frequently sacked quarterbacks in the league last season and will be paying behind a brand new offensive line that looked like a quintet of matadors against opposing pass rushes in the preseason. The Eagles also have reason for concern regarding the protection of Vick's blindside, as the release of right tackle Ryan Harris, who came to Philly as a free agent but fell victim to a season-ending injury, leaves them with the gigantic but inconsistent King Dunlap at that all-important position.

That will likely leave Vick vulnerable to extra wear and tear, which, at 31 years of age, he can't quite as easily recover from as he used to. The hits and blitzes took their toll on Vick last season, as his pace slowed considerably down the stretch.

Yet, even with that toll, Vick still managed to make fantasy owners smile from ear to ear last season. Who's to say he won't do the same this time around when facing similar obstacles?

Of course, there is also some reason for concern about Vick's track record. Last season was far and away the most efficient of Vick's NFL career and the first time his average QB rating even sniffed 100. At this point, the sample size is such that we simply can't predict with any sort of certainty that Vick will be able to replicate his success from 2010.

Maybe Vick is a new man. Maybe Andy Reid really is a genius, the Mike Shanahan of quarterbacks, and has figured out how to make Vick an effective quarterback rather than just a dazzling scrambler.

Maybe, but for now, his resurgence is, statistically speaking, an outlier, an anomaly.

On the other hand, Peterson, as I've already pointed out, is a lock to be supremely productive.

So Who's No. 1?

 In the end, though, the first pick has to be Mike Vick. Again, he's the only guy who can singlehandedly win your fantasy league for you. Nobody else comes close.

Not even Adrian Peterson, reliably spectacular as he may be. There are plenty of other excellent running backs available for the taking, from Chris Johnson and Arian Foster to Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles, and the list goes on.

As for quarterbacks, there is no other Vick. Aaron Rodgers is excellent, as are Drew Brees and Tom Brady, but none of those players has even remotely the same level of fantasy impact as Vick.

If you're worried about losing Vick and not having a decent backup, don't be. The NFL will be as deep in 2011 as it's ever been with quality fantasy quarterbacks. Anyone who picks up Vick should still have the opportunity to another signal-caller in a pass-happy offense, like, say, Sam Bradford or Matthew Stafford.

In short, if you're serious about winning your fantasy league and not just coming in second or third this year, then you need to take Vick.

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