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15 Bold Predictions for the 2012 Houston Astros

Dan PopoloskiSep 13, 2011

The 2011 Astros have had a year that most fans want to forget. However, it has opened up a lot of opportunities for some players who normally wouldn't have gotten a chance with older players blocking their paths.

With so many young players, next year could be a wild ride. Most people don't know how the youngsters will be able to perform over a full year. Here's what I think is going to happen next year with the new Astros team.

15. Jose Altuve Hits over .300

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Jose Altuve has been brought up to fill in Jeff Keppinger's spot in the roster after Keppinger was traded to the Giants. Ever since then, Altuve has done the thing that he's never stopped doing in his entire professional career—hit for a high average. So far in his first 39 games, he's hit .277 along with two homers and 12 RBI.

Next year I expect Altuve to hit a little bit over .300 and get over 170 hits. It will be exciting to see Altuve develop, shine and maybe even be an All-Star.

14. Brett Wallace Stays in the Majors and Hits over .285

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Brett Wallace has struggled in his first full year in the majors. It was made even worse when manager Brad Mills started sitting him out against left-handed pitchers, destroying his confidence.

After continuing to struggle under Mills' rule, the team sent him down to the minors to try to rework some things.

I expect Wallace to be able to hit over .280 next year and hit around 10 home runs. Wallace is the future of first base and if he begins to fail, someone from the lower levels such as Kody Hinze could be brought up to replace him. The team needs him to perform.

13. J.A. Happ Has Breakout Year

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J.A. Happ has struggled this year and after the trade deadline was sent down to the minors to try to fix some issues he's been having. In his three starts since returning from his minor league stint, he has been great, only giving up five earned runs with most of them being in the previous one.

I predict that Happ will have a breakout out year in 2012, win around 15 games and post an ERA around 3.50. I'm very excited to see what Happ has to offer and next year will be his breakout year we've been waiting for.

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12. Jason Bourgeois Is Sent Off

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Besides his injuries, Jason Bourgeois has been amazing almost all of this year. The sabermetrics had shown that his hot hitting was a statistical fluke. Recently, Bourgeois has been showing that the sabermetrics were correct and he won't be able to hit well consistently.

In July, he hit .360 but in August, he only hit .157. He's probably showing his true colors and next year will play terribly. He'll then be sent off to make room for younger Astros outfielders. He has electric speed but can't get on base enough to make it worthwhile. He's not in the future plans for the team.

11. Astros Are in Top 10 in Team ERA

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In 2011, the Astros have the worst team ERA in the majors. The majority of their entire pitching staff has been very inconsistent and have been some of the worst pitchers in the league. The Astros will hopefully be rid of older players such as Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez to make room for the younger guys.

With a new pitching coach, a new owner and a new start, I believe that they will work out their kinks and be in the top 10 in the majors in team ERA.

10. Mark Melancon Saves over 30 Games

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Mark Melancon started out the season as the setup man for closer Brandon Lyon. When Lyon was injured and could no longer pitch—not to mention that he wasn't pitching well when he was healthy—Melancon took over as the closer. Since then, he's saved 17 out of 21 opportunities.

Next year as the full-time closer from the start, Melancon will easily reach and eclipse 30 saves and become a more respected closer around the majors.

9. J.D. Martinez Will Hit 30 or More Homers and Knock in 100 or More Runs

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J.D. Martinez has been great in his short stint in the majors since taking Hunter Pence's roster spot after the trade deadline. He has five homers and 29 RBI with a solid .272 batting average. I believe that J.D. will be able to hit more than 30 homers which will be exciting since the Astros desperately need that kind of power.

Along with his 30 home runs, Martinez will knock in over 100 runs. That type of production will be key if the Astros wish to return to contention.

8. J.B. Shuck Will Take over Starting Center Field Duties

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Recently acquired Jordan Schafer is expected to be the Astros' future center fielder. However, I don't believe that he has the talent and ability to be a full-time center fielder. So by the end of next year, I think that J.B. Shuck will have taken over the starting job.

His good fielding, great bat for average and an even better work ethic should be enough to overtake Schafer for the starting job.

7. J.B. Shuck and Jordan Schafer Will Steal 25 or More Bases

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Jordan Schafer will definitely start out 2012 as the starting center fielder and Shuck will be his backup over Jason Bourgeois. Schafer won't get on base a whole lot but when he does, will be able to show his great speed and steal 25 bases easily.

Shuck, however, only has average speed at best. But because of the way he plays, smart and attentive, I believe that he'll be able to pull out 25 stolen bases after he takes over the starting job in center.

6. Chris Johnson Won't Return to the Majors

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Chris Johnson had an amazing rookie year in 2010, hitting .309 and 11 home runs. He was expected to fill in at third base for years to come.

However, in 92 games in 2011, Johnson only hit .245 with six homers and a terrible .285 on-base percentage before he was sent down to the minors to try to work out his problems and Jimmy Paredes replaced him. Paredes responded with great hitting and will almost definitely take the job permanently.

Chris Johnson then won't return to the majors next year, staying in the minors until something happens to Paredes.

5. Bud Norris in Top Five in Strikeouts and Has ERA Under 3.00

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Bud Norris has steadily improved since his arrival in the majors in 2009. He has a nice 3.78 ERA this year along with 170 strikeouts. At age 26, he's only going to get better and next year, he'll be in the top five in the league in strikeouts and have a sub-3.00 ERA, maybe even garnering some interest for the Cy Young award.

He will become one of the top pitchers in the majors in 2012.

4. Carlos Lee Will Hit 25 Homers and Knock in 90 RBI

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Carlos Lee has had a miserable past two years with the Astros and the only reason why he's still with the team is because of his no-trade clause and ridiculously large contract. At age 35, he isn't expected to get any better. However, 2012 is his walk year and his last chance to prove that he's got gas left in the tank. 

If Lee wants a job past next year then he needs to play his best and I think he will so he can get another contract somewhere. I believe that he'll eclipse 25 home runs and 90 RBI.

3. Carlos Lee Is Then Traded

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In response to the previous slide, Carlos Lee will be traded by the July 31st trade deadline. He will waive his partial no-trade clause and some contender in need of a power bat will pick him up for a small handful of prospects. No top-rated prospects but Houston will deal just to get rid of Lee.

Lee will be gone and a huge burden will be lifted off of the Astros' shoulders as the last major piece of the old Astros is removed once and for all.

2. Jarred Cosart Wins 10 Games

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Brought over in the Hunter Pence deal, Jarred Cosart is projected to be the Astros' future ace. He has been amazing since joining his new organization and is expected to be brought up halfway through next season.

During his first chance in the big leagues, I predict that Cosart will bring his electric stuff and clock up 10 wins before season's end, thus fixating him for the future rotation. It will be exciting to see what he can do.

1. Astros Finish in Third Place in the NL Central

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With their new team young and enthusiastic, the Astros will finish in third place in the NL Central. They will easily beat out the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs and late in the season will beat out the withering St. Louis Cardinals. They'll finish a little bit over .500 for the first time since 2008.

The Astros' rebuilding process has come quicker than expected. They'll have a stronger first half than second but it won't matter since they weren't planning on contending in the first place. It will be a good season in Houston.

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