UFC 137: Does Carlos Condit Have the Tools to Beat BJ Penn?

UFC 137 is almost two months away, but it stands as perhaps the most intriguing card of 2011. Questions across a number of divisions stand to be answered, and a host of big names will compete at the event.

One such big name to compete is BJ Penn, Hawaii’s favourite son who is currently in the midst of a return to welterweight that has him undefeated in two fights. On October 29, he’ll stand across the cage from the final welterweight champion the WEC ever produced, Carlos Condit.

The matchup represents two men at opposite ends of the spectrum in the MMA world. Penn, who hasn’t had a significant win at that weight since he disposed of Matt Hughes in 2004, continues to soak up limitless praise from fans almost in spite of himself. Condit, on the other hand, has finished opponents in 26 of his 27 wins and has never been knocked out. Still, it took a four-fight win streak, three of which were by knockout—including a remarkable comeback, a thundering KO of an English hero on his home soil, and an outrageous first-round flying knee knockout—for people to stand up and take notice.

To put it simply, while Penn has largely been resting on his welterweight laurels, it’s been Condit doing the yeoman’s work a man requires to become a contender in the sport’s toughest division.

It is for that reason that Condit seems poised to act as a foil for the BJ Penn welterweight hype train heading into Vegas in October. He’s young, hungry, and above all else, highly skilled. BJ, on the other hand, is often unmotivated and flip-flops regularly on continuing his fighting career. No one could ever question the raw talent he has, but in a sport that’s grown leaps and bounds since he was king of the division, that raw talent isn’t enough anymore.

There are also other issues at play besides which man is hungrier.

While Condit isn’t a big welterweight, he’s bigger than Penn, who doesn’t cut weight to fight at 170. Bigger men have given BJ problems in the past, particularly rangier foes. Condit is definitely rangy.

Condit also has access to one of the best minds in the game as he trains in Albuquerque with Jackson’s MMA. Greg Jackson catches a lot of flak for his approach to the fight game, and perhaps rightfully so, but he understands fighting and he understands how to win in mixed martial arts. While you have to appreciate BJ’s fighting spirit, this isn’t a street fight on a beach in Hawaii.

Complain about decisions and fights going to judges all you want, when you’re looking in the record books that result is a "W" the same way the best win by soccer kicks in Pride history would be.

There is also the everlasting question mark regarding Penn’s stamina, something that outright cannot be ignored. BJ has never looked good in a fight that went into deep waters, often slowing considerably after the first round. Look no further than his fight with Jon Fitch, where he battered the gritty wrestler for a round, then slowed down a little in the second, and got utterly thrashed in the third. Condit, on the other hand, has shown his conditioning in the past by gutting out Jake Ellenberger and also receiving the beating of his life from Rory MacDonald before storming him in the third round to take the fight away.

Unquestionably, BJ Penn fans aren’t going to like what’s been said here. He still stands as one of the most popular figures in the sport, and remains one of the best lightweights of all time. One of the best lightweights. His recent return to welterweight is little more than fool’s gold for fans who think that this is UFC 46 and he can still be relevant in a division where he’ll always be badly outsized, and usually out-committed, by his opponents.

His matchup with Carlos Condit is likely to exploit that fact. Condit is younger, faster, hungrier and more focused, and has a lot more tools to be successful than anyone that BJ has seen at 170 outside of Georges St-Pierre and Matt Hughes when he was at his best.

Does Carlos Condit have to tools to beat BJ Penn? Yes. One thousand percent, yes.

Will he do it at UFC 137? Likely yes, though the odds perhaps don’t inspire the same confidence.

But at the end of the day, that’s why they fight the fights.