Fantasy Football's Real and Surreal of Week Eleven

What?

That was my thought in response to many an analyst’s claims that the Philadelphia Eagles’ tie to the Cincinnati Bengals wasn’t all that bad, as it would provide them an extra advantage come time when NFC wild cards are being handed out.

Again, what?

I understand that a tie is better than a loss. But they were playing the Bengals. The one-win Bengals. Vegas had the Eagles as nine-point favorites. Need I say more?

If this tie came against the Baltimore Ravens, the Eagles’ Week 12 opponent, then yes, I would understand. But when you tie the second-worst team in the NFL, it’s an opportunity lost for a basically free win.

Let’s get to Week Eleven’s real and surreal.

Houston Texans-Indianapolis Colts

Marvin Harrison: Harrison caught nine balls, the most he’s had since Week One of 2006, for 77 yards and a touchdown. We witnessed this game five weeks ago, when Harrison put up 83 yards and a score against the Ravens. In the four games that followed that breakout, Harrison totaled 10 receptions for 110 yards.

He’ll have one or two more of these fluke games in the coming weeks, but with no signs of when they’ll occur, it’s tough to fully trust him. Sell high if you can.

Joseph Addai: You may look at this game as unusual after Addai put up less than 90 total yards in his first two games since returning from his injury. But look at the defenses he faced: the Patriots and Steelers, who are ranked seventh and third respectively in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs.

In the first four weeks of the season, Addai averaged 12 fantasy points, before being injured in the next game and missing the next two. I see this game as a preview of what’s to come.

Peyton Manning: After posting just eight touchdowns in his first six games, Peyton now has nine in his past four games (plus a rushing touchdown). This was only his second 300-yard game on the year. But don’t worry about that low number, since he only had three all of last year.

Expect Peyton to perform as a top-three quarterback the rest of the way. In his next four games, Peyton and the Colts get the Chargers (worst in the league against opposing QBs), then a three game stretch against the Browns, Bengals, and Lions.

Steve Slaton and Ahman Green: Slaton put up only seven yards on four carries last week, so it was refreshing to see a 100-yard game this week, albeit against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. So much for hitting the rookie wall.

Slaton is now averaging 13.7 fantasy points on the year and 15.2 in his last four games (taking out his seven-yard game last week). You can be assured that this week was not surreal.

As for Green, the 1.9 yards per carry doesn’t look so good, but with ten touches he is fantasy relevant. He’s averaging more than ten carries per game since he returned from injury in Week Five, so in standard leagues he’s worth a pickup.

Carolina Panthers-Detroit Lions

Jake Delhomme: With under 100 yards passing in his last two games against two of the worst teams in the league, Delhomme is now droppable in 12-team standard leagues. He had eight touchdowns in his five games prior, but as I noted, you can’t trust him when he can’t even get 100 passing yards against the worst team in the NFL.

Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams: Stewart was putting up under 45 yards per game on the year before he put up 130 against the Lions. With an average of 5.1 fantasy points in his five games prior to this one, you can definitely say that this was a case of a running back going against the Lions. Definitely surreal and a sell high.

On the other hand, Williams has put up over 100 yards in each of his past three games, with four touchdowns to boot. Williams has a per-game line of 107 yards, a score, and 18.7 fantasy points since Week Five. As crazy as it sounds, he’s a top-10 running back.

Daunte Culpepper: Yeah, yeah, it was a good game, but you can find better players on the waiver wire in your league.

Here are quarterbacks owned in less than 60 percent of ESPN.com standard leagues that I’d rather have than Culpepper, in no particular order: Tyler Thigpen, Marc Bulger, Jeff Garcia, Brady Quinn, Matt Hasselbeck, Joe Flacco, Shaun Hill, and Kerry Collins.

New England Patriots-New York Jets

Matt Cassel: Cassel became the first player ever to throw for 400 yards and rush for 60 in the same game. Both of those were by far the highest single-game total in his career. He averaged 235 yards and had just one touchdown passing in his past three games, so don’t expect 300-yard games from him every other week.

Dustin Keller: After his 100-yard, one-score performance in Week Ten against the Rams, Keller followed up by gaining 87 receiving yards on eight catches and was proclaimed as the next best thing by the media. He’s a mid-to-low top-ten tight end in my mind, so don’t get too giddy.