Fantasy Football Rankings 2011: 25 Most Overrated Players in Fantasy Football

Winning fantasy football is minimizing risk while maximizing potential. 

Your first round in the fantasy draft won't lose you the league, but taking several players who are overvalued can quickly sink your fantasy team. Fantasy football success is about value. You might end up drafting some of these players, and that's not necessarily a bad thing, as long as you draft them in the correct spot. 

Last year Cedric Benson was going in the first round while Jamaal Charles was going in the third. If you avoided a player like Benson for a more proven producer, and picked up Charles in the third then you probably had a pretty good year. 

Do yourself a favor: If you can help it, avoid these 25 players. If they fall to you later, all the better for you. 

Peyton Manning

Manning is hard to overrate, but given the last time he started a season with injury, the team started 3-4 and after he got healthy he won the MVP. 

It all comes down to value, and Manning is still has an ADP of 33 on ESPN.com. He's right ahead of Tony Romo, Matt Schaub and Ben Roethlisberger, all of whom could put up great numbers. Romo, specifically, has excellent value and is largely considered an elite fantasy quarterback. 

Manning just has too many health issues right now to start taking him so soon in your fantasy draft. Now, if he starts to fall to late fourth or fifth, definitely start considering him. In the meantime, take another running back or wide receiver. 

Rashard Mendenhall

There have been 28 instances in which a running back has carried the ball 370 times in a single season. Aaron Schatz of footballoutsiders.com has dubbed it "The Curse of 370," and for good reason. 

This article looks at the curse in detail, and is very eye-opening.

In short, running backs who carry the ball 370-plus times in one year see a 20 percent decrease or greater in their fantasy totals the next year. Out of the 28, nine of them scored half of their previous season's total. The running backs have also averaged 3.3 missed games the next season.

The stats show a dangerous trend in owning Mendenhall.  

Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)

Mike Williams had the best rookie wide receiver year since Randy Moss. 

It was very surprising, especially since know one saw Josh Freeman turning the corner like he did. However, the matter comes down to regression. 

The Bucs were able to take advantage of an easy schedule, especially towards the end of the year where they played teams already destined for the playoffs that ended up resting starters. 

I have no doubt Williams will be a good player this year. However, he's being taken as a No. 1 wide receiver at an ADP of 40. He's a sure No. 2 that could have some big games. Don't expect him to catch 11 touchdowns again, however. 

Marques Colston

Colston's skills have been slowly slipping the last couple of years.

He's lost and step and cannot gain the separation he was once able to. The Saints look headed for a more balanced offense with the drafting of Mark Ingram. The team has plenty of options outside of him. 

Colston is going just ahead of Stevie Johnson, Jeremy Maclin and Anquan Boldin, all of whom have higher upside and will generate fantasy totals as the best options for their team. Pass on Colston in every draft you have. 

Cedric Benson

Why anyone would every draft Cedric Benson, I don't know. 

He was a volume running back in '09, generating subpar stats on 301 carries. His 4.2 yards per carry average was half-a-yard per carry more than his six-year career average. 

A whopping 3.7 yards per pop is what you can expect from Benson, and that's outside of his legal trouble. He was sentenced to 20 days in jail over the bye week. He still might be punished by the league; considering he's been punished before, he could be suspended for a few games as well.

Somehow he's still going ahead of Beanie Wells, Tim Hightower and Joseph Addai, all of whom have had better track records recently and are just flat-out better running backs.

I would put money down that Bernard Scott takes Benson's job by midseason. That kid is talented, and it would be just plain stupid to keep him on the bench.   

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

The Law Firm, as he was named, had a pretty good 2010. 

He had a 1,000-yard season with a whopping 13 touchdowns. He shared time with Danny Woodhead, who produced well as a flex running back also. However, fantasy owners should be very wary in 2010. 

Bill Belichick is a madman, and rotates through offensive players very quickly, always keeping opponents on their toes. The Patriots drafted Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley in the second and third round this year. 

Ridley is essentially a more talented Green-Ellis. He's also had fantastic preseason. Green-Ellis is a risky proposition this year, when you could have a player like Tim Hightower or Beanie Wells who could be very high-upside players. 

Jahvid Best

I am very high on Jahvid Best's skills, and incredibly low on his ability to stay healthy. 

He had concussion problems in college, and has already suffered one this preseason. Turf toe is a difficult injury to overcome, and it plagued him for much of last year. 

He's got Jamaal Charles kind of upside, but it's all about him staying healthy—and with the Lions' luck, I don't see that happening. 

Michael Turner

Turner had a great year, especially finding the end zone. 

However, the Falcons may be moving to a pass-first offense, which will kill a lot of Turner's value. Matt Ryan attempted an incredible 42 passes in only the first half in their last preseason game. With the addition of Julio Jones in the blockbuster trade they made in the draft, it's no small secret they're going to be throwing the ball more and running less. 

Michael Turner has also been taking a beating the last few years. The 370 Curse struck him in '09, but he rebounded last year. He's getting older, so the wear and tear might start to show even more this year. 

Eli Manning

Eli Manning might think he's as good as Tom Brady, but I don't.

Manning has been a solid starting quarterback in fantasy leagues for the last few years. He's supported by a strong running game a couple of dynamite receivers. 

He threw 25 interceptions last year, and now has lost the super-reliable Steve Smith to the Eagles and safety net Kevin Boss. He's looked terrible in the preseason, and I don't think it's exactly a coincidence. I don't doubt Hakeem Nicks or Mario Manningham's ability, but I do doubt any target outside of that.

It will be extremely hard for Manning to put up a 25 touchdown 3,800-yard season with how much they're going to be running the ball and the loss of two key targets. Many think of Manning as reliable, but guys like Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan and even Jay Cutler could put up very similar years.  

Pierre Garcon

Garcon has been a bit of a tease the last couple of years, and the prospect to take any Colts wide receiver is tempting. 

Garcon, however, is just not worth it. With Manning being injured, there's almost no chance for Garcon to find reliable fantasy production now that Dallas Clark and Austin Collie will have returned. On top of that, Anthony Gonzalez and Blair White could both get more playing time than the inconsistent Garcon.

Drop him faster than he drops passes.

Arian Foster

It's really hard to call Arian Foster overrated, considering he does have the skills and his amazing fantasy season last year. 

In my opinion, he's the fourth-best running back on the board, right behind Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice. He's experiencing hamstring problems, which can be a nagging injury that puts a player out a couple weeks, or at the very least slows them down.

I think there's something to be said about the departure of Vonta Leach. He had an incredible year, and you would often seem him as the leading blocker in highlight reels. The offensive line played very well, maybe above their heads last year. Regression is expected for Foster; the only question is how much, especially considering the other backs on the board.  

Tony Gonazalez

It almost hurts me to write this being a long-time Kansas City fan, but Tony Gonzalez looks done. 

Not to say he isn't an effective player; he's just not an effective fantasy player anymore. Gonzalez has clearly lost a step, and with several good sleepers out there like Jimmy Graham, Jared Cook and Tony Moaeki, it just doesn't make sense to take a tight end who will put up average numbers. 

He's worth a waiver play every now and then since he will still catch touchdowns, but he shouldn't be starting for anyone.

Ahmad Bradshaw

I buy into Bradshaw's ability as a back. If he were the primary back for the Giants I'd put him in the late first or early second round. 

The problem, however, is that Brandon Jacobs is there and probably just as good of a back. When Bradshaw experienced fumbling problems last year, Jacobs got the job for a couple of games. 

Jacobs ended up producing 823 yards and nine touchdowns on only 147 carries. If Bradshaw had the opportunity to get those touchdowns he could have been a fantasy monster last year.

As is, this time share is bad news for fantasy owners. If Bradshaw ends up as the primary starter and gets more goal-line carries, I'd love to own him. He's overrated as long as Jacobs is there, however.  

Michael Vick

Vick's numbers were absolutely mind-boggling last year, rushing for over 600 yards and running in nine touchdowns, on top of throwing for 3,000 yards and 21 touchdowns. 

This just screams regression. 

No quarterback has ever run in nine touchdowns, and to expect Vick to do it again is a little absurd. Not to mention the fact that when he starts running around like a madman he gets injured, and he does that a lot behind a porous offensive line. 

He has great upside, but for a first-round pick Vick could lose you a great starter. You can most likely take Aaron Rodgers who carries a lot less risk for injury, and still gets a few rushing touchdowns. 

Josh Freeman

Like Vick, Josh Freeman's year screams regression.

Freeman went from a 54.5 percent completion percentage for 10 touchdowns and 18 interceptions to a 61.4 percent completion percentage for 25 touchdowns and six interceptions. 

Given his easy schedule, Freeman's true character probably lies somewhere in between those numbers. There's no way he's throwing only six interceptions again this year, it would be more likely to see 12-15 after a performance like last year's.

If the Bucs are legit, he might be able to post 25 touchdowns again, but a tougher schedule sure won't help.

He won't be a top-10 quarterback again this year in fantasy. Go find yourself a Matthew Stafford. 

Chad Ochocinco

Though it's become trendy to see every move Bill Belichick makes as savvy and super intelligent, I see it as a reach for a receiver on a hard downward trend. 

Ochocinco has been losing his skill over the last couple years. Everyone remembers when he boasted how he'd take on Darrelle Revis, and disappeared for the entire game. He fails to create separation, runs poor routes and is generally a personality nightmare.

The Patriots are going to stretch the field with their two stud tight ends, not with Ochocinco. He's just another guy in their offense. He's a slightly better option than Deion Branch, but that's not saying much. I would expect Danny Woodhead to have a bigger season. Do not expect him to be Randy Moss.  

DeSean Jackson

DeSean has undoubtedly become one of the best receivers in the NFL to stretch the field with, averaging 22.5 yards per reception last year. 

The problem really comes in that he's being drafted as a primary No. 1 receiver when he's just not going to get the targets. In three years he's had reception totals of 62, 62 and 47. He's the type that always seems to make the highlight reels, because his plays are usually big ones. He'll more than likely hit a 1,000 yards and something around another six touchdowns, but that wouldn't even make him the best receiver on his team. 

On ESPN.com, Jeremy Maclin is going as the 21st receiver overall, and that's with reports coming out that he's playing Week 1. I wouldn't be surprised if Maclin was slow the first couple of weeks and Jackson was on fire, but after Maclin's 100 percent, he'll be the best receiver on that team.

DeSean could also lose receptions to the dependable Steve Smith, who came over from the New York Giants. Despite microfracture surgery, he's expected to be able to start Week 1.

Take a real No. 1 receiver over Jackson. Or at least wait and take Maclin, who will be a great value.   

Ryan Mathews

Ryan Mathews was overrated last year. 

Mathews has a lot to prove, so much so that Norv Turner has insisted it will be a running back committee. Consider Tolbert was able to run for 735 yards and 11 touchdowns last year, completely destroying Mathews' value, and he became a fantasy starter.  

Expect the same this year. In fact, I would have Tolbert ranked ahead of Mathews. There will be many opportunities for touchdowns, and the Chargers are one of those teams who like run it in just as much as they like to throw it. Tolbert is also a good pass-catcher, which will thieve more work from Mathews on 3rd down.

Mathews is currently going ahead of Tolbert, Marshawn Lynch, Joseph Addai, Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower. At least three of those players are uncontested starters, and a couple of them are candidates for 300 carries.  

Thomas Jones

Jones has had a great career, and has been vastly underrated for most of it. 

That's been a changing trend this season, as people are drafting him when he's losing value. It's understandable, if Jamaal Charles goes down many would expect him to be the direct backup and Jones could vulture touchdowns and maintain production. That's just not going to be the case this year. 

Dexter McCluster has been practicing with the running backs all training camp, and Todd Haley has said he will play running back for much of the season.

McCluster saw a ton of work during the preseason, and was the only bright spot for the Chiefs' preseason. If Charles went down, it's not only possible, but likely, that McCluster would take his role.

Charles has also been getting more goal-line carries, during practice and the preseason. In the end, McCluster could end up getting as many touches by the end of the year as Jones. Avoid him.   

Kevin Kolb

New quarterback, new system—guarantee you he's going to throw four picks in the first game.

The League references aside, Kolb will have difficulty producing fantasy stats coming into a brand new system so quickly. He does have the massive benefit of throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, but that only goes so far.

The other Cardinals receivers are unproven, and that doesn't spell out great things for Kolb. Not only that, but "Open the Levi" Brown is playing left tackle and the rest of the offensive line looks just as bad. It's just a difficult situation for Kolb to come into and actually produce fantasy-wise.

He's starting in a lot of 12 team leagues, and is the primary backup in a lot of standard fantasy leagues. Do yourself a favor and draft Sam Bradford instead.  

Any Defense or Kicker

The thing that drives me insane in the majority of drafts I do is when someone just runs out of ideas and so they end up taking Nate Kaeding in the 10th, or the Eagles defense in the ninth. Why people, why?

Fantasy defenses fluctuate incredible amounts year to year. The Bears defense was great in fantasy last year; the year before they were 30th in fantasy. Those trends can be seen of almost any defense over the last five years. The only consistent one from year to year is the Steelers, and someone almost always ends up taking them in the 11th. 

I repeat: Do not draft them until the last rounds. Maybe you can draft the defense you absolutely want in the 13th round instead of the 14th, but don't take a valuable sleeper or depth pick and burn it on the least meaningful position.  

Plaxico Burress

In his nine-year career with the Steelers and Giants, Plaxico was above average. 

In his last year, before being incarcerated, he played 10 games for the Giants and caught only 35 balls. I do not doubt his ability to stand around in the end zone and catch touchdowns, but Mark Sanchez just doesn't throw many. He had 17 last year, and there's only so many to go around. 

Burress is 34 years old and has clearly lost his speed. He's a big red-zone target and that's it. With Mark Sanchez at quarterback, on a run-centered team, Burress has very little chance to be a fantasy stud.

Burress is currently going ahead of players like Santana Moss, a proven producer, and Malcolm Floyd, who is the second receiver on a prolific Chargers offense.  

Maurice Jones-Drew

The real problem with Maurice Jones-Drew is that he's had the third-greatest workload of any running back over the last three years. We've already discussed what that can do to a running back. 

Then MJD had offseason knee surgery, and he's assured us that he's 100 percent healthy (who doesn't tell us that?).

If he stays healthy, he could do work. The problem is he's probably not going to be. I would reconsider my decision on MJD after I see the game on Friday. He's supposed to play for the first time in preseason. Until then, he's going in the late first round or very early second, and I would still avoid him there. Unless of course he just looks great in the last preseason game. 

Julio Jones

As we discussed for Mike Williams, rookie wide receivers have a really low expectation level. 

Outside of the quarterback, wide receiver is the hardest position to come in and pick up in the NFL. They have an entire playbook to go through, a new system and just adapting to the higher level of competition is an uphill battle.

Jones is getting drafted ahead of Austin Collie currently, which makes no sense. Collie looks to soon overtake Reggie Wayne as the Colts No. 1 wide receiver, barring injury. He's going ahead of the tried-and-true Santana Moss, and he's only a couple slots down the ADP board from Mario Manningham, who could have a huge year.

Rookies are a dangerous game. It would be wise to stay away.  

Reggie Wayne

Speaking of Colts wide receivers, Wayne needs a closer look.  

He's getting older and older, and he's visibly slowing down. To be honest, if it weren't for Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne might have had a mediocre 2010.

Austin Collie and Manning have developed an incredible connection last year. That will definitely eat into Wayne's production, as will Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez coming back from injury. 

Not to mention that if Manning doesn't play 100 percent then it will hurt all the Colts receivers. It just makes sense to avoid Wayne for a receiver that's still on the board in the same target area, like Mike Wallace or Miles Austin.