Weekly NFL Picks: Week 11

I had the pleasure of watching the Packers-Vikings game here in Green Bay with a collection of Packers fans. Being such an anti-Packers guy, it was fun to watch the Packers get beat, then come back, then finally lose at the gun. Good times.

Last week was surely a good time for my picks. I got about as close to 100 season victories as I could and expect to break the century mark after this week.

Let's get to the picks.

New York Jets (6-3) over New England (6-3)

The Jets are good. The Patriots, and more specifically Matt Cassel, can't beat good teams regularly. Despite being at home in prime time, the Patriots will show their first signs of weakness in years and fall to the Jets with the division lead on the line.

Atlanta (6-3) over Denver (5-4)

I've said it before and I'll say it again: The Broncos are not a good team. Not even close.

On the other hand, the Falcons are surprisingly successful this year. Matt Ryan is making a legitimate case for Rookie of the Year—and maybe even NFL MVP, if the Falcons make the playoffs—and should have a proverbial field day against Denver's lackluster pass defense.

Philadelphia (5-4) over Cincinnati (1-8)

Another thing I've said on multiple occasions: The Eagles soar against bad opponents. Coming to Philadelphia this week are the abysmal Cincinnati Bengals, which should spell an easy victory for the Eagles. Cincinnati won't be able to stop Donovan McNabb or Brian Westbrook.

Green Bay (4-5) over Chicago (5-4)

Strengths and weaknesses match up at Lambeau Field this week. The Packers can't really stop the run and Matt Forte is fourth in the NFL in rushing yards. On the other hand, Green Bay can lock down the pass and will be facing a returning Kyle Orton.

Aaron Rodgers will do enough to lead the Packers to a crucial home victory and keep the Pack in the race for the NFC North crown.

Indianapolis (5-4) over Houston (3-6)

The mark of a lackluster team is failure away from home. Houston's record away from Reliant Stadium? 0-4.

While the Colts are having anything but a successful year by their own lofty standards, a victory over the Texans is absolutely mandatory if the Colts wish to return to the postseason.

New Orleans (4-5) over Kansas City (1-8)

Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford might want to start contemplating what number he'll wear in Kansas City. The Chiefs are plain bad and won't stand a chance against a Saints offense loaded with weapons.

Miami (5-4) over Oakland (2-7)

Tony Sparano may be a leading candidate for NFL Coach of the Year honors. The first-year head man has the Dolphins in the thick of the air-tight AFC East race and will keep pace with the Patriots and Jets with a victory over a floundering Raiders team. Al Davis may lose what little sanity he has left before the 2008 season comes to a close.

Baltimore (6-3) over New York Giants (8-1)

Every logical argument points to the Giants. New York is plus-six in the turnover department compared to Baltimore's minus-two mark. The Giants have a top-five offense while Baltimore's ranks 17th. The Ravens are led by a rookie quarterback while the Giants are led by a Super Bowl MVP.

But I just have a feeling Baltimore pulls out the win.

The last time I had a feeling, though, I picked the Lions to beat Jacksonville. We know how that turned out.

Tampa Bay (6-3) over Minnesota (5-4)

Tampa is more than adequate at stopping the run—Minnesota's strength—ranking 11th in the NFL in rush defense. Regardless, it will take quite an effort to shut down the league's hottest running back, Vikings back Adrian Peterson.

The Bucs should implore a run-first defensive strategy, forcing Gus Frerotte to beat them. Any time you leave Frerotte in charge of leading your team to victory on the road, you're in trouble.

Carolina (7-2) over Detroit (0-9)

After my momentary insanity last week, I've got my head firmly attached to my shoulders again. For reasons I may not understand for months, I said the Lions would tally their first win of the season over Jacksonville.

The Lions will win eventually, but it won't be this week in Charlotte. The Panthers may be the second-best team in the NFC (behind the Giants) and will keep their grip on the NFC South lead with the Falcons charging.

St. Louis (2-7) over San Francisco (2-7)

I lost all of my confidence in the 'Niners after they laid an egg against the Seahawks. Despite Steven Jackson missing the contest, the Rams offense should have enough to get past San Francisco and leave Mike Singletary searching for his first career coaching victory.

Arizona (6-3) over Seattle (2-7)

The roles of these two teams have been reversed from years past. Normally it'd be the Seahawks coming into the game as 5.5-point favorites on the road. My, how things change.

Arizona has one of the better offenses in the league and Seattle can't stop anyone. They're not going to start with the Cards' explosive offense.

Tennessee (9-0) over Jacksonville (4-5)

I wanted to pick the Jags to win this one. I really did. But I just couldn't.
Tennessee's defense is too stingy. David Garrard was abused by the Titans in these teams' first meeting this year.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor rushed for a combined 33 yards in the contest. While I don't see that type of dominance this weekend, the Titans will climb to 10-0 with a hard-fought road victory.

Pittsburgh (6-3) over San Diego (4-5)

The league's biggest mystery, for the most part, has been figured out: The San Diego Chargers just aren't that good. LaDainian Tomlinson may be looking at the end of his top-tier production as a running back in the NFL.

Phillip Rivers is a top quarterback in the league, but Pittsburgh's defense is too tough for San Diego's underachieving offense to overcome.

Washington (6-3) over Dallas (5-4)

Big-time rivalry games always bring out the best in teams. Washington should be at the top of its game Sunday night, which is too much for a downtrodden Cowboys team to contend with. Expect a close game at FedEx Field, but Washington's victory may put Dallas' playoff hopes in serious jeopardy.

Buffalo (5-4) over Cleveland (3-6)

Monday night's contest is a must-win for Buffalo. A loss would put the Bills in last place in the division after coming out of the gates as the AFC East's hottest squad. Luckily the Browns are coming to town.

Brady Quinn should be a star in the league one day, but Monday is not that day. This one may be closer than some would expect but the Bills will walk away with a much-needed W.

Last week: 11-3
Overall record: 94-46