Packers-Bears: A Preview

The Packers are host to the longest rivalry in professional football when the Chicago Bears come to Lambeau Field. If the Packers have any hope of making the playoffs this game is a must win.

On the other hand, if the Bears lose they would still be the favourites to win the division in my mind.

That is why I would like to point out that there would be no Chicago Bears without the Green Bay Packers, who generously bailed them out during the Great Depression. So basically, Chicago, you owe us...keep that in mind as you watch and play (because of course I am so important that actual Bears players read my articles) the game.

Both of these teams have scored exactly 237 points so far this season (tied for sixth in the league), and that is just one of the ways they are evenly matched. The Packers average 319.6 yards per game on offense, and the Bears 323.6. Green Bay is plus-seven in the turnover department; Chicago is plus-six.

But how the teams arrive at these production levels are very different. Below I break down the matchup between each team's units:

Packers pass offense vs. Bears pass defense: huge advantage to Green Bay

The Packers are the 11th-ranked passing attack in the league (221.4 yards per game) and face a 30th-ranked Bears pass defense (251.8 yards surrendered per game) that has struggled to stop quarterbacks like Gus Frerotte, Kerry Collins, and Dan Orlovsky. This is the one area of the game the Packers must exploit to win, and they will be successful through the air.

Packers run offense vs. Bears run defense: big advantage to Chicago

The Packers have begun to get their rushing attack underway, but are still in the bottom third of the league (98.1 yards per game). They face a Bears squad that is ranked fourth in the league (74.9 per game) and held the Titans to 20 yards on 29 carries. The Packers may be able to run enough to keep the Bears honest, but that is about all.

Bears pass offense vs. Packers pass defense: advantage to Green Bay

The Bears are a lot more balanced than people realize, with the 14th-ranked passing attack in the league (213.0 yards per game). Kyle Orton is also returning for this game, although it is logical to assume he may be a bit rusty with no practice for two weeks.

However, they are passing into the teeth of what, to me, is the best pass defense in the league. Statistically, Green Bay is ranked third (179.1 yards per game), and because the run defense is so bad, teams actually pass less often. However, Green Bay is not only the interceptions leader in the league with 16, but has returned an astounding six of them for scores. Don't expect the Bears to pass much unless they have to or do so on play-action.

Bears run offense vs. Packers run defense: huge advantage to Chicago

The Bears have only the 15th-ranked rushing attack (110.6 yards per game), but are up against a horrendous Packers run defense ranked 30th in the league (154.6 yards per game). To make matters worse, the Packers just lost their best linebacker, Nick Barnett, for the season.

On the plus side, Barnett is undersized and was susceptible to cut-backs because he relied on his speed in pursuit so much. It looks like the Packers are going to put a bigger A.J. Hawk in the middle and insert Brandon Chillar on the weak side.

This unit may be as stout against the run as the original, which is not saying much. The Bears will run almost at will unless the Packers are leading late, when they tend to wear down, and may get 200 yards rushing in this game.

Special Teams: slight advantage to Green Bay

The place-kicking of both teams is a dead heat. The Bears' Robbie Gould and the Packers' Mason Crosby have both missed only three field goals and are good at kicking the ball deep. Both teams' kick return units average just a bit shorter returns than their opponents because of that (-1.7 yard average for the Bears and -1.5 yard average for the Packers).

The Packers' Derrick Frost has a net punting average 5.5 yards better than his opponents in large part because of the Packers good coverage and return games. The Packers have two touchdown returns, but that is inflated by having played two games against Minnesota; they got one in each of those games.

Chicago has only played Minnesota once but has no touchdown returns, and their punter has a net disadvantage of three yards per punt. I was surprised to see this advantage go the Packers way in light of the presence of Devin Hester, but his numbers are not exceptional. I am sure it is because teams are pinning him to the sidelines or kicking away from him, and suggest the Packers will do the same.

Overall: toss-up

The Bears and Packers both had a huge advantage, the Bears had one big advantage, and the Packers had a significant advantage and a slight advantage. We can expect a relatively high score because both defenses' biggest weaknesses are matched up against the opposing offenses' strengths.

However, because the Bears will be running the ball, and therefore the clock, a lot, I don't expect the score to get into the Vikings-Bears, 40-plus point territory.

The irony is that the home field has not benefited anyone in this series in this decade. In the last five games, the Bears are 4-1, with their only loss coming at Soldier Field. However, I would think this trend would not continue, and because the Packers need this game more, I am going to go with a win for Green Bay, 30-27.