UFC 91 PREVIEW: Matt Brown Vs. Ryan Thomas

UFC Welterweight fight: Matt "The Immortal" Brown Vs. Ryan “The Tank Engine” Thomas

As a MMA sports bettor, I cannot remember the last time or maybe even ever that I backed a bout with a fighter sporting a 7W-7L professional record.

This match-up has all the situational elements that I look for when breaking down a fight beyond records, skills and stats. At first glance we wonder how a 7W-7L Matt Brown is favored over the shining looking 9W-2L Ryan Thomas by a wagering margin of 2:1.


At a second glance I see a very talented and strong Thomas who has solid ground skills and very good submissions as proven in his 6 submission wins.

A third glance has me thinking that Thomas’s back is up against the wall in the UFC as he lost his debut fight against TUF alumni Ben Saunders at UFC 87 and could see his dreams slip away very quickly with another lost in the octagon. This is a huge factor for me as Matt Brown is becoming a fighter with a reputation that brings it ever fight and gives the fans what they want to see. Despite a 1W-1L record in the UFC I have to believe that Brown will see another day in the UFC as he has once again taken a fight on very short notice. These fighters are a dime a dozen and are always rewarded with another chance to fight again.

Matt Brown is a gritty, tough no non-sense guy who just happens to be a very technical striker as well. His mat skills are improving and if his last fights are any indication his submission and takedown defense are greatly improved. In his last fight Matt may have been on the wrong side of a decision. This is another factor in our favor as we can expect Brown to look for a finish. Brown looked really good against the highly touted and talented Dong Hyun Kim. He was able to stand and defend all night and even came close to pulling off a couple submissions himself. He was very composed and confident the entire fight and was placing his will and heart out there to ensure a victory. This is another factor that favors Brown. We can be assured that Brown has the ability to fight through anything and can push his will on the untested youngster.

Ryan Thomas needs to place this fight on the mat quickly. He needs to have explosive takedowns and be ready to eat punches along the way. On the ground there is no need to rush, he just needs to be cool and utilize his skills. The problem I have here is that he must be feeling he needs to fight with urgency. He knows that his opponent can hurt him in the stand-up and he knows that Brown will keep coming and never stop. I like Ryan’s chances of landing a takedown, maybe even 2 but I loved what I saw from Brown against Matt Arroyo(a very skilled mat fighter) and Kim. Brown has shown that rolling with a guy like Dustin Hazelett has its rewards.

Another factor that played in on this decision was that Thomas was preparing for a completely different opponent. His original opponent was a one dimensional grappler with very little experience. Thomas is in for a different fight here and a match-up that doesn’t necessarily favor him. His preparation for another wrestler/grappler comes with many different levels of striking and takedown plans. Brown moves well and can take anything that Thomas throws at him. Ryan will be hard pressed on short preparation to have an effective plan B if he is unable to land takedowns generated from striking. He may find himself peppered all night and confused.

Bottom Line: With a relaxed, older and more seasoned Brown who is comfortable in this situation going against a young fighter who has yet to fight 1 quality opponent and has his UFC career backed up on a fence I have to take the TUF inflated line of -200 and hammer it for a financial gain.

LOOK FOR “THE IMORTAL” ONE TO WIN VIA 3RD TKO

Dean Tardio