2011 Mock Fantasy Football Draft 16-Player League, Rounds 1-3

Fantasy football drafts are starting all over the place, and it's time for players to make their final evaluations. 

In this simulated draft, I will be the ghost drafter for all 16 players, trying to make the best possible teams by taking the highest players on my board in each scenario, given the current roster of the team.

The league this is simulating is a 1 QB 2 RB 2 WR 1 TE 1 Flex 1 K 1 D/ST league with passing TD's worth four, everything else worth six, 25 passing yards worth one point and 10 receiving/rushing yards worth one point.

Round 1, Pick 1: Adrian Peterson

This is a no-brainer for me. In my last article, I outlined why AP was the guy at No. 1 overall. If you need a justification for why Peterson deserves the top spot, you can look there.

Round 1, Pick 2: Arian Foster

Arian Foster had an amazing year last year. In fact, I owned him in two leagues, but this year, I'm not taking him first overall. He's a great running back in a quality offense, but much like Chris Johnson last year, I don't trust him like I trust AP. For more, check out the link on the last slide.

I still think he's good enough to be the clear No. 2; I just don't think he's better than Peterson.

Round 1, Pick 3: Jamaal Charles

He is the most talented running back left. Period. He may not be a touchdown machine, and he may split carries, but he can do it all, and I'm confident he will have another big season.

There are reasons not to like Charles, but I think his talent trumps them, especially considering the worries from the guys behind him.

Round 1, Pick 4: Ray Rice

If you really want to know why I love Rice, look no further.

Round 1, Pick 5: Aaron Rodgers

I know Chris Johnson should be here, but his holdout worries me, and I don't like that offense either way. I would feel much more comfortable with my No. 1 QB. 

Aaron Rodgers is undoubtedly one of the best in the game today, and at No. 5, I think he's worth it. With Chris Johnson's holdout still going strong, I think the Packers QB has to be the pick here.

Round 1, Pick 6: Chris Johnson

I have dropped Johnson two spots so far, but if it looks like he could miss games, I'll go lower. You can't have your first round pick missing the first three games of the season; it's just not logical. I love his skills, but I hate the offense, and I hate the holdout. 

Round 1, Pick 7: Roddy White

White has never missed an NFL game. He has played 16 games in all six of his NFL seasons—that's durability.

White has recorded at least 1,100 yards in four straight seasons and has scored double-digit touchdowns in the last two. He caught 115 balls last year and will remain the best receiving option in that offense by far. Gonzo is getting old, Turner isn't a threat and Julio Jones probably isn't going to be ready by the start of the season.

Matt Ryan is going to look for White early and often—it's just a fact.

Although White may not be a sexy pick on the surface, he's a great player on a great team, and I think he's going to have a great year. The difference between he and Andre Johnson isn't all that much, but I think White is better. I would assume White is going to be taken in the second round of most drafts, but I believe he has first-round value. 

Round 1, Pick 8: Andre Johnson

Andre Johnson is arguably the most gifted receiver in the game today, and he plays with a quarterback that loves to throw to him. Arian Foster took some of his touches, but he also opened up the field for him. With Owen Daniels coming back, Johnson should attract less triple teams next season. 

I don't like him as much as White, but I think he's definitely worth a first round grade, even in a 10-team league.

Round 1, Pick 9: Rashad Mendenhall

I'm not a huge Mendenhall supporter, but I think he's a good bet to get double digit touchdowns, and he's the feature back in Pittsburgh. What more do you need? 

People try to make a big deal out of his carry numbers, but he's young, and I really don't think it's going to be a big deal. Mendenhall is a pretty safe bet barring injury, and I think he's worth a first rounder.

Round 1, Pick 10: Calvin Johnson

You may be wondering why I have Calvin Johnson as a top 10 pick, you may not. Either way, click here to understand my love for Megatron

Round 1, Pick 11: LeSean McCoy

I'm down on LeSean McCoy this year. He is completely dependent on the play of Michael Vick, and he isn't built to handle a bigger workload. I don't think Ronnie Brown cuts into his production all that much, but I don't think he has superstar potential.

With that said, McCoy is still a pretty special talent on a great offensive team. The Eagles are going to score a lot of points this season, and McCoy is going to be at the center of the offense.

Round 1, Pick 12: Hakeem Nicks

Hakeem Nicks had a solid year last season, topping 1,000 yards and recording 11 touchdowns.

Those numbers would definitely get you a spot in a starting lineup in a 10-man league, and those numbers were similar to Stevie Johnson, who had a monster season. Nicks finished 13th in yards and tied for fourth in touchdowns.

The thing is, Nicks only played in 13 games. He missed three games toward the end of the season and still managed to put up possibly No. 1 receiver type stats.

Eli Manning is a solid quarterback, and he always looks for Nicks. The Giants also have Mario Manningham and Steve Smith, as well as a better than average running game, so they have a solid offense around him.

I suspect Nicks will be healthy this season, and I think his production will be similar to what he did last year while he was on the field.

Round 1, Pick 13: Michael Vick

Michael Vick is far and away the most polarizing figure in fantasy football this season. Some wouldn't dare take him in the first round, while others are contemplating taking him first overall to ensure he isn't stolen away.

There's a fantasy football saying that reads, "You can't win your league in the first round; you can only lose it."

Well, Vick is the exception to that saying. I believe if Vick repeats the success he had last season over 16 games, he can actually win you the championship, and he's the only guy we know of whom you can say that about—but he comes at a price.

It's no secret everyone is betting against Vick when it comes to the amount of games he's going to play. Selecting him is a calculated risk, but I believe he could really pay off. I think in a 16 team league, it's more of a risk and you'll need to take another QB, but if you feel Vick is that good, it could be worth it. 

Round 1, Pick 14: Michael Turner

here

Round 1, Pick 15: Larry Fitzgerald

Larry Fitzgerald just signed a huge extension, and it was well deserved. He has been one of the best receivers in football over recent years, but he hasn't had a stable QB lately, and it has really been dragging down his fantasy value. 

Now Kevin Kolb is the starter, and while Kolb isn't great, I expect him to be a huge improvement over who Arizona played last season. Better quarterback play, better production. I think it may be as simple as that.

Round 1, Pick 16: Steven Jackson

I recently wrote an article explaining why I like Steven Jackson this year.

Round 2, Pick 1: Mike Wallace

In his second NFL season, Wallace improved substantially as an overall receiver.

His rookie year he pretty much just went deep; now, the Steelers are finding new ways to try to get Wallace the ball in addition to him running deep routes. 

With Hines Ward getting older with the passing of each season, Wallace figures to see his targets increasing. He also has the benefit of playing with Ben Roethlisberger as his quarterback. Big Ben may not be the best quarterback around, but he has one of the strongest arms; there are only a few guys who can throw the deep ball like him.

Team 16: Steven Jackson, Mike Wallace

Round 2, Pick 2: Maurice Jones-Drew

I realize this is way too low for MJD by most standards, but hear me out. 

MJD plays for the Jaguars. This is a team with very limited amount of offensive weapons that relies almost completely on the 5'7" running back to move the offense. They have no other real threats, and everyone is going to be scheming against him.

If the Jags are looking bad the first half of the season, they might end up starting rookie Blaine Gabbert, which would likely makes matters worse for the Jags offensively. If Gabbert starts, the entire offense is going to struggle, including Jones-Drew.

MJD has taken a beating over the past few years as one of the premier featured backs in the game. He struggled with injuries last season, and I wouldn't be surprised if he struggled even more this year.

I'm not only concerned about his overall play; I'm also worried about how much his body is going to be able to handle. I'm definitely not a Maurice Jones-Drew advocate this year.

Team 15: Larry Fitzgerald, Maurice Jones-Drew

Round 2, Pick 3: Darren McFadden

Darren McFadden had a breakout season last year to say the least. He had more than 1,600 total yards and scored 10 touchdowns. Those are solid stats; the thing about them is he did it in only 13 games last season.

McFadden has always had trouble staying healthy, but when he played last season, he dominated. If you're going to pick him, you have to be prepared to see that dreaded "Q" next to his name at least a few times (if not more), but when he plays, he has the potential to dominate the game, even in a poor offense.

As long as McFadden can stay moderately healthy, he should have another big year. At only 23 years old, he still has young legs and probably hasn't reached his potential as a runner.

Team 15: Michael Turner, Darren McFadden

Round 2, Pick 4: Greg Jennings

I think Greg Jennings is going to have a good year, but I don't think he'll repeat his performance from last year. With Jermichael Finley back, that offense is going to be better than ever, and it gives Rodgers a big red zone target.

It's going to be hard for him to repeat, and I think with Finley in the mix, there are too many mouths to feed in Green Bay. Either way, Jennings is a deep threat and great receiver. He'll get his; it just won't be like last year.

Team 13: Mike Vick, Greg Jennings

Round 2, Pick 5: Frank Gore

I don't really like Frank Gore this year, but his talent was too much to pass up at this spot. He is pretty injury prone, but if he plays 16 games, he could be huge.

I'm not convinced San Francisco's offense is capable of producing goal line opportunities for Gore, but I think he's talented enough to have a solid season anyway.

Team 12: Hakeem Nicks, Frank Gore 

Round 2, Pick 6: Drew Brees

I have Drew Brees being drafted ahead of Tom Brady, but not by much. I wouldn't be surprised if Brady finished ahead of Brees, but I like Brees because I don't trust the Saints' ground game—not that I trust New England's all that much either, but the Law Firm can get it into the end zone.  

Mark Ingram is a talented player. Predicting how a rookie will fare is difficult, but I think he will succeed this year. The Saints picked him in the first round for a reason.

The Saints are going to throw a lot of passes this year either way, and Brees has many different weapons at his disposal. I expect him to have yet another huge year.

Team 11: LeSean McCoy, Drew Brees

Round 2, Pick 7: Matt Forte

Here's why I like Matt Forte

Team 10: Calvin Johnson, Matt Forte

Round 2, Pick 8: Miles Austin

Miles Austin is a great receiver, but Dez Bryant is going to eat into his production. He would definitely be an better fantasy receiver if he didn't have another great receiver alongside him. 

I believe Austin is the safer of the two receivers, and with Tony Romo back, Austin is likely going to have another high quality season.

Team 9: Rashard Mendenhall, Miles Austin

Round 2, Pick 9: Ahmad Bradshaw

Ahmad Bradshaw enjoyed a breakout season of sorts last year; he finally broke through and had a monster year.

Brandon Jacobs is nearing the end, and while he didn't do all that much last year, I expect his production to decrease this year. At 25, Bradshaw is just reaching his prime. Bradshaw hasn't been a workhorse in the past and doesn't have that many miles on him.

His feet have been questionable, and he played through injury a little bit last year, but I believe he can stay healthy. If he plays in all 16, I'd be very surprised if he didn't finish as a top 15 running back.

Team 8: Andre Johnson, Ahmad Bradshaw

Round 2, Pick 10: Tom Brady

Tom Brady is one of the most consistent fantasy players in the game. Year after year, he puts up huge numbers; I suspect this year will be no different. Throughout his career, Brady has continued to put up huge numbers without the benefit of having star players in most cases.

I have Brady as the No. 4 fantasy quarterback this season. It's hard to tell if the emergence of BenJarvus Green-Ellis will open things up or detract from his attempts and hog touchdowns. I expect Brady to have another huge year regardless.

Team 7: Roddy White, Tom Brady

Round 2, Pick 11: Dez Bryant

Dez Bryant is an unbelievable talent. He has the skills to be a top-five receiver this year. Jason Witten caught a lot of Bryant's touchdowns last season, but this year it will probably be different. I know putting both Cowboys' receivers this high is a little crazy, but Bryant's upside is too much to turn down.

Team 6: Chris Johnson, Dez Bryant

Round 2, Pick 12: DeSean Jackson

DeSean Jackson is one of the most explosive players in the game, if not the most. His unbelievable speed sets him apart from most wide receivers.

Playing in an offense with Michael Vick really opens things up for Jackson. Vick's arm strength allows him to run deep routes down the field and come up with big plays quite often. 

I'm convinced that Jackson's physical skills set him apart from the majority of NFL players, and I believe he will have a huge year because of it.

The thing I'm worried about most is actually Vick's injury history. If Vick goes down, Jackson isn't going to be nearly as valuable. If Vick plays in most games, though, Jackson has a chance to have a special year.

Team 5: Aaron Rodgers, DeSean Jackson

Round 2, Pick 13: Philip Rivers

Philip Rivers has been on the fence between the elite QBs and the next tier. I believe Rivers breaks through and joins the elite for good this year.

I'm concerned with Manning's health, as well as the lack of support he gets from his running game. I believe Tolbert and Mathews will be much more productive this season for Rivers. 

With Vincent Jackson back and Antonio Gates healthy in a pass-first offense, I like Rivers' chances to outperform Manning. Although I believe Rivers is going to have a great year, I believe he is a borderline third-round pick. If he's available in the fourth round, he provides good value.

Team 4: Ray Rice, Philip Rivers

Round 2, Pick 14: Antonio Gates

I wrote an article yesterday about why I love Gates this year, which you can find here.

I moved Gates up my rankings significantly this time around because I have become a Gates believer. He was on track for more than 1,300 yards and 18 touchdowns after eight weeks before he got hurt. Those are outrageous numbers and put him way ahead of the curve when considering the value of other players at his position.

Getting Gates on my team this year is going to be a big part of my strategy. I think he's a much better bet than a lot of the players around him. It's no secret Antonio Gates is the best tight end in the game. The only question is whether or not he can stay healthy.

Gates missed six games last season and has struggled with injuries his entire career. If I knew Gates was going to be healthy for the majority of the season, I would put him higher, but for now, I believe spending a late fourth-rounder on him is adequate.

With Vincent Jackson back in town and the running game hopefully improving, Gates may not get as many targets as he did last season, but I still expect him to put up huge numbers.

Team 3: Jamaal Charles

Round 2, Pick 15: Vincent Jackson

While Vincent Jackson didn't play much last season, he's still a dominant force on the field. He has the benefit of playing in a pass-heavy offense as the clear No. 1 receiver. Antonio Gates is obviously there, but Jackson will get his targets either way.

Jackson doesn't have much competition for his spot, and he should return to where he was before he sat out last season.

Team 2: Arian Foster, Vincent Jackson

Round 2, Pick 16: Dwayne Bowe

While Vincent Jackson didn't play much last season, he's still a dominant force on the field. He has the benefit of playing in a pass-heavy offense, as the clear No. 1 receiver. Antonio Gates is obviously there, but Jackson will get his targets either way.

Jackson doesn't have much competition for his spot, and he should return to where he was before he sat out last season.

Team 1: Adrian Peterson, Dwayne Bowe

Round 3, Pick 1: Reggie Wayne

Reggie Wayne is the No. 1 wide receiver on a pass-first team led by one of the best quarterbacks in the game.

The reason I'm a little concerned about Wayne this year is his age. He's now 32 years old, and I'm not sure how much longer he's going to last.

How well he performs this year just depends on how his body is going to hold up. If he starts to suffer from nagging injuries or loses a little bit off his first step, he could drop significantly in drafts.

I believe Wayne has at least one, maybe two more elite years left in him. I guess we'll find out come September.

Team 1: Adrian Peterson, Dwayne Bowe, Reggie Wayne

Round 3, Pick 2: LeGarrette Blount

Last season, LeGarrette Blount essentially had 1,000 yards and five touchdowns in 11 games. He played in 13 games, but in his two appearances before Week 7, he had a combined 10 carries.

One-thousand yards in 11 games is extremely impressive, but questions remain about Blount.

First of all, he might be crazy. If he turns out to be a headcase and gets in trouble, it could ruin his entire season. 

Another issue is that we don't know how he's going to bounce back after his first NFL season. He basically got a year to work out and do mostly non-impact drills when he was suspended his final year at Oregon, so he was rested. It will be interesting to see how his body reacts to another full season of work.

I like Blount, but don't take him as your first running back. He could be great, but I'm not completely convinced he's great just yet.

Team 2: Arian Foster, Vincent Jackson, LeGarrette Blount

Round 3, Pick 3: Santonio Holmes

Holmes didn't play in the first four games of last season, but after he returned, he was effective. With Braylon Edwards gone, Holmes is clearly the No. 1 option on that team. Plaxico Burress may provide some relief as a No. 2 receiver, but at this point, I don't even know what to expect from him.

The ball will be going to Holmes a lot, and he's very explosive. I think he has a considerable amount of upside this season. Holmes has been good in the past, but I wouldn't be surprised if he steps up and has a career year this season.

Team 3: Jamaal Charles, Antonio Gates, Santonio Holmes

Round 3, Pick 4: Mike Williams

I'm not really sure what to think about Mike Williams. He was very good last year, but touchdowns are less reliable than yards, and a guy who scores 11 touchdowns in his rookie year might be a risky pick in the fifth round.

Either way he's Freeman's main target, so he can't be that bad.

Tampa Bay has quite a few good young players on the roster. It will be interesting to see how their offense works this year. 

Team 4: Ray Rice, Philip Rivers, Mike Williams

Round 3, Pick 5: Peyton Hillis

Most analysts have Hillis rated higher than this, but I feel there are just too many red flags. He is an extremely powerful runner, and he was an effective back last season, but I don't see him repeating his performance. 

Hillis has been extremely injury-prone his entire career, and being the focal point of the offense doesn't help. He takes way too many hits, and he's bound to be injured at some point. If you decide to draft Hillis, don't expect more than 13 games from him, and be ready to deal with him being questionable every game.

With virtually no passing game, and considering the fact that Cleveland is going to have to throw at the end of most games, I don't like Hillis to repeat his performance.

Team 5: Aaron Rodgers, DeSean Jackson, Peyton Hillis

Round 3, Pick 6: Jahvid Best

Jahvid Best is a risky pick.

Last season, he had some really good weeks and some really bad ones. Best is an electrifying player who could be extremely effective in both the running game and the passing game. 

If Matthew Stafford can stay healthy and get the offense moving, Best could be a big part of it. I'm not sure he can be a feature back, but I expect him to improve significantly on a per-possession basis this season.

The injury to Mikel LeShoure made me move Best up the list a little bit, but not too much. I still don't think he's a feature back, but he should get a few more touches. Best has the talent, hopefully he can put it all together.

Team 6: Chris Johnson, Dez Bryant, Jahvid Best

Round 3, Pick 7: Shonn Greene

This might be a bigger reach than Finley, but I'm really high on Shonn Greene this year, and here's why.

LaDainian Tomlinson was very good last season, but he's getting older. LT is obviously still going to be a factor, but if LT gets hurt or he just isn't as good, Greene could take over a huge workload on a run-first team.

The thing about Greene is that he'll get better as the season goes along. He's known as an extremely durable player, and on the flip side, LT is not. As the season goes on, LT will wear down more and more, and by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around, I believe Greene will be highly productive.

Team 7: Roddy White, Tom Brady, Shonn Greene

Round 3, Pick 8: Tony Romo

Tony Romo is pretty self-explanatory. You know what you're going to get.

If he stays healthy, that offense is going to be good, but he's going to be in a few too many third-and-nine situations. I'm worried about the running game in Dallas, but if Romo stays upright, he should be good either way.

With Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Jason Witten and Felix Jones going out for passes, how could you be bad?

Team 8: Andre Johnson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Tony Romo

Round 3, Pick 9: Mario Manningham

I think Mario Manningham is in for a huge year. Manningham put up at least seven points in 10 games last season, including eight games in double-digits. I expect him to improve significantly this season, especially on his consistency. Super Mario had almost 1,000 yards receiving and nine touchdowns in 2010.

I have no problem with Manningham as a No. 2 receiver. He plays in a great offense as the second receiving option. He also saw a huge bump in his stats at the end of the season, getting at least 100 yards and a touchdown in his last three games. 

If Hakeem Nicks can't stay healthy, Manningham becomes even more attractive, and I believe he's worth a late fifth-round pick. I think he'll be a top 20 receiver this year, if not a top 15 guy.

Team 9: Rashard Mendenhall, Miles Austin, Mario Manningham

Round 3, Pick 10: Dallas Clark

In my opinion, Dallas Clark is just a safe bet. He did get hurt last season, but I believe he'll be ready to go this time around. Playing with one of the best quarterbacks in the game will definitely keep his stock up.

I put him in front of Jermichael Finley because of his consistency. I don't think Clark has the potential Finley does, but he's a better bet to produce regularly. 

Team 10: Calvin Johnson, Matt Forte, Dallas Clark

Round 3, Pick 11: Jermichael Finley

 Finley only played in four games last season, but when he played, he was effective. 

Everything I've read about Finley so far is positive, and in that offense, I think he could be really dangerous. If Donald Driver isn't on the roster this season like some have speculated, Finley could step into a huge role for that offense. 

On a team with a limited running game, a 6'5" Finley could become a favorite red zone option for the Packers this season. 

Factoring in Antonio Gates' injury history, I wouldn't be surprised if Finley was this year's top tight end in a pass-heavy offense.

Team 11: LeSean McCoy, Drew Brees, Jermichael Finley

Round 3, Pick 12: Peyton Manning

I'm worried about the neck. Peyton Manning has been a top NFL quarterback for a long time, but this year, I expect his value to take a hit. 

If he doesn't play in a game or two and it takes him another couple games to get his timing back, we could be looking at a real problem. He's still a good fantasy quarterback, but I do have my concerns.

Team 12: Hakeem Nicks, Frank Gore, Peyton Manning

Round 3, Pick 13: Felix Jones

With Marion Barber gone, and Felix Jones being a favorite of both the coach and the owner, I like Jones' chances to succeed this year. I'm not convinced yet that he has what it takes to be a feature back in the NFL, but the Cowboys are probably going to try to make him one.

In that offense, any running back who gets 25 touches a game is fantasy gold. If Felix can get there, he will be dynamite. 

Team 13: Mike Vick, Greg Jennings, Felix Jones

Round 3, Pick 14: Austin Collie

Austin Collie is a risky pick because of his concussion history, but when he played, he was unbelievable. He is definitely the second best receiver in that offense.

If Collie can stay healthy, I think he would have a huge year.

Team 14: Michael Turner, Darren McFadden, Austin Collie

Round 3, Pick 15: Ryan Mathews

Mathews was a disappointment, to say the least, last season. He was drafted in the top 15 in most drafts, but he battled injuries most of the season and didn't live up to expectations. 

I expect this year to be much different. Many running backs struggle to adjust to the NFL during their rookie years and have their coming-out party their sophomore year. I believe Mathews will be in that category.

Mathews has all the physical tools to be a successful running back in the NFL, and with a year of experience under his belt, I believe he can put it all together. He is playing in a great situation that should provide him with the opportunities he needs to succeed.

Team 15: Larry Fitzgerald, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ryan Mathews

Round 3, Pick 16: Marques Colston

Although Colston has been extremely consistent, I have concerns about how well his knees are going to hold up. He has now had surgeries on both knees, and I'm worried he could go down again.

Colston is a huge red zone target, so if he does stay healthy, he's a good bet to get to 1,000 yards and score some touchdowns. With Ingram on board for short yardage situations, I think his targets will decrease, but he provides good value here.

Team 16: Steven Jackson, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston

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