UFC 134 Fight Card: Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami, a Head-to-Toe Breakdown

This Saturday’s UFC 134 fight card in Rio de Janeiro is the culmination of a busy MMA summer schedule. That culmination will culminate when Anderson Silva, the consensus best mixed martial artist in the known solar system, faces celebrated Japanese grappling specialist Yushin Okami.

As you may have heard, Okami is ready for this. He is physically strong. He gets in his reps at the gymnasium. And did you also hear he was the last man to beat The Spider? It’s true. Glad I was the first person to break that news to you.

To be certain, this main event for the middleweight strap will be a crazy combination of styles. Muay Thai versus wrestling. Yin and yang. Oil and sludge. But what, specifically, should viewers expect?

Here’s a detailed breakdown of every phase of this fight.

1.Striking

I figured I’d start with the most obvious and work down. And the obviousness of this particular topic is on par with Tiger Woods’ bald spot and Daniel Snyder’s Napoleon complex.

No one needs me to tell them Anderson Silva is going to want to keep this fight on the feet, and in so doing, score the stoppage. But perhaps, there’s a bit more to the story beyond the, well, you know.

Okami may be able to neutralize Silva’s dreaded Muay Thai clinch attack, using that vaunted wrestler’s strength to control The Spider’s arms and wrists and keep him from locking on.

Unfortunately for Okami, though, that’s only half the battle.

Muay Thai is Silva’s bread and butter, but he’s hardly a one-strike pony. Silva can inflict plenty of harm from the outside. Just ask Vitor Belfort. And Forrest Griffin. And Demian Maia.

He is especially apt to do this against Okami. Yes, Okami is a strong fighter. But he’s not particularly quick. That’s why you’re likely to see Kickboxer Silva rather than Muay Thai Silva this Saturday.

Expect a steady stream of sticking, moving, taunting, jabbing and counterjabbing. And if the opportunity presents itself, maybe he’ll unleash another front kick or some other deadly weapon heretofore unseen. 

I don’t want to dismiss Okami’s standup entirely. It’s not bad, and he has some power, to which his 11 striking-related stoppage victories can attest. But the upshot is that as long as this dance plays out on the feet, Anderson Silva will be calling the tune.

Advantage:  Silva

2. Wrestling

Okami has a total ground package reminiscent of Silva’s well-rounded vertical attack. 

The fact that Thunder trained with Chael Sonnen in advance of UFC 134 sends a signal about as subtle as the atmospheric phenomenon that inspired Okami’s nickname. Rest assured he’ll follow the Sonnen Blueprint to a T—get the takedown at all costs and stay heavy and busy enough to pinion Silva for the duration.

What might up the degree of danger for Silva is Okami’s ground-and-pound blows, which land a little heavier than Sonnen’s fly swattings.

The real test for Okami is whether he can keep his head, arms and legs outside the danger zone at all times, as Silva has demonstrated, he can work fast and furious even from his back. That question remains open this week, but at this point, Okami has earned the benefit of the doubt.

Advantage: Okami

3. Submissions

Though the two only have four tapout wins between them (three for Silva and one for Okami), one is a jiu-jitsu master with submission wins over Olympic-level wrestlers, and the other is a submission grappling technician with impressive international credentials.

Statistics and footage suggest that neither man actively seeks the submission but can and will go for it if given the opening. I'd be surprised if this fight ended in submission, but stranger things—much stranger thingshave happened.


Advantage: Silva

4. Defense

A lot of the fight could come down to this.

Can Silva, whose head movement and overall quickness make him extremely hard to hit, use his sprawl to stave off Okami’s takedowns?  And can Okami, who can stuff more or less any shot, find a way to minimize damage when the fight is on the feet?

This pairing’s odd couple qualities seem especially pronounced in this aspect, as each man is very adept at defending attacks his opponent would seem unlikely to attempt. But for the things each man does well, the opponent would seem to have corresponding chinks in the armor.

So it’s a matter of who can shore up his weaknesses or prevent them from coming into play altogether.

I give a slight edge to Okami. Why? Because in MMA, the tie goes to the wrestler. If Okami finds himself being pummeled with strikes, he’ll always have the good ol’ takedown as a last line of defense. Maybe it will be successful, maybe it won’t, but it is an option.

On the other side of the coin, Silva (like any predominantly standup fighter) has no equivalent escape valve. He can hope his takedown defense works. He can hope he simply knocks Okami out or otherwise controls him standing before Okami can get the fight to the mat. But beyond that, there is no plan B.

Advantage:  Okami

5. Between the Ears

Well, for starters, Anderson Silva is the champ and sits at the helm of a record 13-fight UFC win streak. Okami is no slouch either, though, having won 12 of his last 14. But it’s clear who has the sturdier psychological footing here.

Sure, Okami was the last man to beat Silva, but that might as well have happened in the Roaring 20s for all the bearing it has on the fighter Silva has become today.

So there’s that. But the equation goes deeper than just a few lines of MMAth.

Case in point: while Silva always and unequivocally looks for the finish, Okami has an equal and opposite tendency toward the conservative play. Nothing wrong with that per se, but the longer you stay in the cage with The Spider, the greater your chances of something bad happening to you, coughchaelsonnencough. 

So in a sense, by not taking any risks against Silva, Okami would be taking a big risk. Should he change his approach in an attempt to dictate the tempo? Endless examples from across the world of sports show that changing a proven approach for one matchup is more often than not a fool’s errand.

It is by no means hopeless for Okami, but at the same time, his margin of error can fit on a knifeblade. I imagine both fighters are aware not only of this situation, but of the fact that no amount of training can or will change it. This only ups the pressure on the challenger. So while it may not be a perfect Catch-22, it is a bit of a self-fueling fire.

It will be interesting to see how Okami performs, given that he essentially has to fight a perfect fight. No pressure, though.

Advantage:  Silva

Bottom Line

It’s a tantalizing superimposition of styles between two men who have, throughout their careers, demonstrated great skill, great heart and a great desire not only to win, but to keep winning.

Okami didn’t take any short cuts to this opportunity; he’s a worthy challenger. He has a decent chance to beat Silva. Maybe a better-than-decent chance. 

But a quick look at the Vegas odds shows that Silva is a pretty heavy favorite to win in front of his countrymen at UFC 134. And I believe I’m inclined to agree.

I think Okami’s room for error is too small. I think that Anderson Silva’s game is more well-rounded than Okami’s, and to put a finer point on it, that his weaknesses are not as weak as Okami’s weaknesses.

Maybe Okami can control Silva on the ground. Maybe he can’t. But all of us, including Silva and Okami, know where, why and how Silva can take and maintain control.

Ultimately, I believe Okami will fight not to lose. We all know where that gets you against The Spider. It will be closer than the final stat line will indicate, but at the end of the day, I guess that stat line is all that matters.

Prediction:  Anderson Silva, TKO, Round 3