Fantasy Football Predictions: The Irony of It All

Ah, fantasy football. That endless struggle to analyze statistics and predict what will happen based solely on what has happened in the past. This isn't like the weather man; at least he has his radar equipment which gives some real data about what might happen. Fantasy football doesn't have that luxury.

I give the writers and analysts at Yahoo, ESPN, Sporting News, or any other source a lot of credit for trying to put together such detailed reports. But let's be honest, it is damn near impossible to win your respective league with a team drafted based solely on their advice.

The league that I am going to use as an example for this article is a 10-team Yahoo public league which I was randomly assigned to. It follows the standard head-to-head scoring system. To conduct this little experiment, I drafted it based completely on the recommendations from my copy of The Sporting News Fantasy Football 2008 (pictured).

It is awfully ironic how completely and utterly wrong the analysts are in their preseason rankings. The dictionary definition of "irony" is: a state of affairs or event that seems deliberately contrary to what one expects and is often amusing as a result.

Sometimes, it does seem like the predictions turn out the exact opposite of what was expected. In a season such as this, when things are so upside down, it is quite amusing to look back at the preseason rankings.

In my Yahoo league, the players who have earned the most points so far are Kurt Warner and Drew Brees, each with 169 as of Week 10. Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers are second on that list with 168.

The Sporting News had the top four QBs listed as Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, and Brees. If you said that Kurt Warner, ranked 28th among QBs and 203rd overall, would be tied for the lead in points, people might have laughed at you, especially since Arizona's other quarterback was up at 97th overall. And how about Matt Ryan?

Among the running backs, the situation is not much better. The writers would have had you take Willis McGahee and Laurence Maroney many places ahead of LenDale White and Michael Turner. The likes of Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and DeAngelo Williams were nowhere to be seen on draft day. In fact, Forte was undrafted in my league.

The 204th ranked player, Steve Slaton, is now 17th and the fifth ranked is now 19th. It couldn't have been planned better. And I won't even mention Mewelde Moore, Tim Hightower, and Kevin Smith...

I will give credit where it is due, however, and say that Adrian Peterson was projected to be No. 2, and he is No. 2. And on a side note, players who have stepped in for injured stars couldn't have been fairly predicted. (That applies to Tom Brady and Matt Cassell as well.)

It would be boring and unnecessary to go through every other position on fantasy rosters, but I think the evidence is clear: Be very wary of the expert advice.

By now, football has probably overtaken the weather as the hardest thing to predict accurately. It is fun to read through the rankings and see what other people think will happen, but in the end it is nothing more than that. So next season, think about your draft and remember that your call is probably just as good as the people who get paid to do it.

By the way, my expertly advised team is currently 5-5, and average at best!