UFC: Top 21 Title Contenders and Their Odds of Wearing UFC Gold

It seems that most of the UFC's weight divisions have a pretty knotty pack of contenders at the moment. In some cases, the logjam might loosen up with several title fights coming in the second half of 2011, and in others it might get a little tighter before it gets better.

So who are the top contenders in each division, and what are their chances of securing the belt? In this list, I’ve taken the top three contenders from each weight class and assigned the percentage chance I think each one has to dethrone the current champ.

These fighters are listed by weight class and are not necessarily "ranked" against one another. Also keep in mind that this is not meant to list every single contender and the percentages are obviously going to be arbitrary. Other than that, it should all be self-explanatory. Happy reading.

21. Brian Bowles—Bantamweight

Record: 10-1

The hard-hitting choke-out artist could potentially take bantamweight champ Dominick Cruz into deep water. If he can lay a hand on him, that is.

Odds of success: 21 percent.

20. Joseph Benavidez—Bantamweight

Record: 15-2

See that two up there? Both of those came courtesy of Cruz.

Sometimes, another guy just has your number. Benavidez’s best hope to win the title (or even get a shot at it) would be for the belt to change hands.

Odds of success: Nine percent.

19. Urijah Faber—Bantamweight

Record: 25-5

Faber handled Cruz back when he was the WEC featherweight champ. But this ain’t featherweight, and it ain’t 2007.

Though Faber gave a respectable showing at UFC 132, Cruz more or less picked him apart. Since it stands to reason that a third bout would more closely resemble the second meeting than the first, I’d have to give an edge to Cruz.

Odds of success: 26 percent.

18. Chad Mendes—Featherweight

Record: 11-0

His top-level wrestling has earned him a perfect record, including a 2-0 start to his UFC career. It’s the kind of smothering ground-and-pound that could keep featherweight champ Jose Aldo’s striking at bay.

However, Mendes hasn’t always shown he can finish lesser fighters, so it’s nowhere near a good bet that he could do so against Aldo. And there’s only so long you can keep a fighter like Aldo down.

Odds of success: 22 percent.

17. Kenny Florian—Featherweight

Record: 15-5

A lot of people seem eager to write off Florian’s chances against Aldo, perhaps because the relatively high-profile Florian received a title shot after only one fight at 145, and did relatively little in title fights and title eliminators during his otherwise successful time at lightweight.

I suppose I’m not one of those people. I think Aldo will win, but not before Florian drags him into a chess match. My guess is Florian doesn’t have the firepower to put Aldo away, but a close decision could at least justify Florian’s fast track to the championship opportunity.

Odds of success: 38 percent.

16. Hatsu Hioki—Featherweight

Record: 24-4-2

Hatsu is the crown jewel of the UFC’s featherweight acquisitions outside the WEC absorption. He’s won nine of his last 10, and does so with a potent and physical blend of submissions and shoot wrestling. In other words, not only does he know how to tap you out on the ground, he also knows how to get you there.

If anything can quench the fire that is Aldo’s blistering Muay Thai, it’s this patient and very strong 145-pounder.

Odds of success: 50 percent.

15. Clay Guida—Lightweight

Record: 29-11

Who doesn’t love The Carpenter? You gotta love The Carpenter.

Unfortunately for The Carpenter, though, I don’t see him having the tools to overcome lightweight belt-holder Frankie Edgar.

Despite his wild-man reputation, Guida is predominantly a grinder once the cage door closes. That’s all well and good, and Guida’s technique and endurance are impeccable, but he doesn’t seem to have either the power to keep Edgar pinned to the canvas or the speed to hang with Frankie on the feet.

Odds of success: 20 percent.

14. Melvin Guillard—Lightweight

Record: 29-8-2-1

Guillard might be the hottest fighter these days at 155. His raw power, combined with excellent conditioning, could neutralize Edgar’s light feet and light-speed hands.

Edgar might look to take Guillard to the ground, and could be successful there, though Guillard does enjoy a size advantage.

This is a tough one to call, but if Guillard’s fierce attack is in its top gear, this matchup could mean a long night for Frankie. Guillard, for his part, certainly seems to believe that would be the case.

However, in my opinion that’s a pretty sizable "if," as consistency is something Guillard has struggled with throughout his career.

Odds of success: 47 percent.

13. Gray Maynard—Lightweight

Record: 10-0-1

Maynard has already fought Frankie Edgar to a draw, and in so doing dominated him so thoroughly for one round that some people saw it as a 10-7.

Edgar’s point boxing and bottomless gas tank make him a difficult fighter to handle. But when you combine the strength and wrestling of Maynard, you get a pretty powerful brand of ground-and-pound. That makes him tailor-made for the task of handling Edgar in their rematch.

Odds of success: 60 percent.

12. Jon Fitch—Welterweight

Record: 23-3-1-1

Fitch was competitive against Georges St-Pierre in their initial meeting, but I don’t see him pulling anything out in a rematch that he didn’t or couldn’t the first time around.

In other words, his grinding style unwittingly plays right into the hands of GSP, who can grind like he’s removing tree stumps.

Just another reason Fitch seems to be the star-crossed contender at 170.

Odds of success: 15 percent.

11. Jake Shields—Welterweight

Record: 26-5-1

See the previous slide and give Shields a bump-up for his submission skills. I think Fitch would defeat Shields, but Shields measures up with St-Pierre a little more favorably than Fitch.

By the way, Shields is now saying he really wanted to fight Fitch all along. Yeah, him and everyone else who was silent as a tomb on the matter until they were paired with someone else.

"Oh, yeah, I toooootally wanted to fight Jon Fitch! But hey, I have to take whoever they give me—it's the UFC's decision. Hold me back, ref!"

Odds of success: 25 percent.

10. Nick Diaz—Welterweight

Record: 25-7-1

Discussion boarders and others like to refer to Nick Diaz’s boxing style as “pitter-patter,” implying he lacks punching power. It might be true, but when you throw 88 strikes in one round and land 54 of them, as Diaz did in knocking out Paul Daley, I’d say it doesn’t much matter in a lot of cases.

It will matter against Georges St-Pierre. The Bavarian pretzel of wrestling muscle that is GSP will be able to have his way with Diaz, taking him to the mat with ease if the standup kitchen gets too hot. I would say Diaz has a puncher’s chance, but, you know—pitter, patter.

Odds of success: 12 percent.

9. Yushin Okami—Middleweight

Record: 26-5

Sound the alarms! It’s the last man to defeat Anderson Silva!

Okami has the smothering wrestling ability to make it an interesting fight on paper. And, as we’ve all heard a time or two thousand, Okami is one of MMA’s strongest middleweights.

But I’ve seen too many Anderson Silva fights on TV and in person to think Okami will be able to control Silva for five full rounds.

Odds of success: Nine percent.

8. Vitor Belfort—Middleweight

Record: 20-9

Vitor Belfort is suddenly relevant again, and talking just a little bit of smack about how The Front Kick was flukey and opining that a rematch wouldn’t go down the same way.

I’ll believe it when I see it, but Belfort’s combination of speed and power presents a stiff test for anyone, if he’s able to pull the trigger.

Odds of success: 30 percent.

7. Chael Sonnen—Middleweight

Record: 25-11-1

Sonnen has more of a chance than Okami because, well, he almost beat Silva in their first fight.

He took Silva down at will and landed all sorts of strikes. Since I've actually seen Sonnen do it, I'm not so hesitant to tout his ability to do so in any future fight.

And while he wasn’t able to squash The Spider, he got closer than anyone else has in a very, very long time.

Odds of success: 43 percent.

6. Lyoto Machida—Light Heavyweight

Record: 17-2

Machida’s evasive karate style wouldn’t be able to get out of the way of champ Jon Jones. He can run, but he can't hide.

It wouldn’t be a matter of if, but of when.

I don't see Machida getting the better of any exchange that might occur.

Odds of success: 11 percent.

5. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson—Light Heavyweight

Record: 32-8

I love me some Rampage. And I’m enjoying the pre-fight hype for UFC 135—in which Rampage is repeatedly asserting that Jones lacks power—just as much or more than I always enjoy Jackson’s pre-fight hype.

But guess what? Jon Jones is going to put a whooping on Rampage come September.

Jackson may have a power advantage, but Jones holds an edge—and a decided one at that—in just about every other single area I can think of. I think he’ll put forth a good effort, but Jon Jones ain’t Matt Hamill.

Odds of success: 19 percent.

4. Rashad Evans—Light Heavyweight

Record: 16-1-1

Here’s the guy who can defeat Jon Jones.

They are former training partners and, as such, know each other’s games quite well. I imagine this would work more in the favor of the thoughtful, seasoned Evans (and his newly tailor-made training camps) than it would the younger, cocksure Jones.

Evans also has the complete game to handle Jones. No matter where the fight goes, Evans will have the experience, the strength and the tool kit to temper and perhaps turn back Jones’ force-of-nature onslaughts.  And if that starts to happen, I imagine Jones would be apt to become reckless, which Evans would be more than happy to take advantage of.

Finally, Evans still seems to be improving. He looked and fought better against Tito Ortiz than he ever had before. It stands to reason he'll be improving (right along with Jones) in the run-up to their inevitable collision.

Odds of success: 53 percent.

3. Brock Lesnar—Heavyweight

Record: 5-2

I think Lesnar will return to the Octagon some day. I think he’ll also return to the winner’s circle, perhaps even in his trademark dominant fashion. But until he proves he can not only be 100 percent of his old self, but also a more improved version—one who can trade punches and absorb big strikes—I don’t see him hanging with current champ Cain Velasquez.

Although a rematch would be fun—just so I could hear Brock saying “Cain VelASSkwez” every day for a few weeks.

Odds of success: Zero percent.

2. Frank Mir—Heavyweight

Record: 15-5

Mir has a good amount of power and peerless submission skills at the heavyweight level. But I’m not sure I see Mir being able to definitively dictate the terms of the engagement—ground or otherwise—against the grizzly bear that is Velasquez.

In fact, I see these fighters’ ground skills canceling out, and leading to a stand-up war. At least initially.

Mir has the strength and dynamism to tenderize Velasquez, or at least give his cardio a true test, before turning his attention to scoring the tap out. Call it a puncher's chance, MMA style.

Odds of success: 33 percent.

1. Junior Dos Santos—Heavyweight

Record: 13-1

As he showed against Shane Carwin and others, Junior dos Santos doesn’t fear power, and he doesn’t fear wrestling. He’s going to throw a lot of punches—and throw them with very, very sinister intentions.

Maybe Velasquez can do something about it, but to date there’s nothing to suggest anyone is capable. 

I see the series between these two playing out in epic fashion over the course of several years.

Odds of success: 56 percent.