Fantasy Football: LeGarrette Blount and the 6 Best Values at Running Back
Whether you are part of a snake draft or an auction draft, the best way to win your fantasy football league is to utilize value.
Last season, Arian Foster surprised almost everyone with his breakout season. If you took him in the middle rounds, he was an unbelievable steal that most likely helped your team to a playoff appearance. If he was taken in the first round, he would have still proven his worth, but you would have missed the opportunity to take another elite player. It is important to know what players are worth to make your team as good as possible.
In an auction draft, value plays an even bigger role. Adrian Peterson might be the consensus number one pick, but a fantasy owner must decide if he is worth the hefty price tag that comes with him. Wasting money on a busted top pick could be devastating to your entire team.
This list includes the top running backs you should look for on draft day. They might not be the top choices, but you are sure to get the most bang for your buck.
All draft projections are courtesy of live draft results on ESPN.com.
LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1 of 6Draft Position: 39.5
Auction Dollars: 19.1
LeGarrette Blount had a rough start to his career. Due to character issues he went undrafted, and then was cut by the Tennessee Titans before landing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Lucky for him this was the perfect situation. Injuries forced Blount to top of the depth chart and finally he was given a chance to show what he can do on the field.
By the end of last season, Blount became one of the best running backs in football. He has tremendous speed and agility for his size and he can break tackles as well as anyone. For fantasy purposes, his biggest value is that he is an every down back, something that teams have started to shy away from in the NFL. Also, he is a part of a good young team that should move the chains well and help get Blount into the end zone more often.
Despite all of this, projections have LeGarrette Blount falling to the end of the fourth round. Owners should jump at the opportunity to have a talented full-time back. Sure he might not be as good as Adrian Peterson ($65 average), but will Peterson be over three times as good as Blount? I do not think so.
Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys
2 of 6Draft Position: 52.2
Auction Dollars: 11.5
Over his three year career, Felix Jones has shown a lot of promise but not enough results. He has averaged 5.3 yards per carry in three seasons, but has never had enough touches to warrant him being a solid fantasy performer.
This season, Jones has two major changes that work in his favor. First, Marion Barber is no longer blocking his path to success. While Barber has been a talented, punishing runner over his career, he never had the explosiveness that Felix Jones possesses. This will allow Jones to get more carries and more touchdown opportunities.
The other major difference for the Dallas Cowboys running back is that Jason Garrett takes over as a full time head coach. Once Garrett took over for Wade Phillips, Jones received double digit carries in every game. Garrett has faith in Felix Jones, and this trust should help him rise to an elite level as a fantasy running back this season.
Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens
3 of 6Draft Position: 7.8
Auction Dollars: 50.2
How can a first round choice and very expensive auction pick be considered a good value? Well let’s look at the facts:
Fact 1: Ray Rice was considered a “disappointment” last season after many experts projected him to be a top three or four running back. However, he still finished in the top 10 in fantasy points among running backs and had 1,779 yards from scrimmage.
Fact 2: A big cause for anger towards Rice last year was the lack of touchdowns. The reason for this was that Willis McGahee became the Baltimore Ravens' short yardage back and finished with as many touchdowns (five) as Rice did. Things look to be different this year as McGahee is now with the Denver Broncos.
Fact 3: The Ravens made possibly the most underrated signing of the offseason when they lured Vonta Leach away from the Houston Texans. Leach is widely regarded as one of the best blocking fullbacks in football, as evidenced by Arian Foster’s emergence last season. Leach replaces Le’Ron McClain—a solid fullback, but more of a rusher than a blocker. This will further help Rice become a top runner this year.
Last year at this time, Ray Rice was expected to take the leap into becoming one of the best—if not the best—fantasy running backs in football. I think this year he takes that leap and has the chance to finish with the most points in the league.
At $50 of auction money, you can get Arian Foster production, but still add someone like LeGarrette Blount for the same total price.
Ryan Williams, Arizona Cardinals
4 of 6Draft Position: 96.6
Auction Dollars: 4.2
Now is the point where owners start going bargain hunting. The poor owners stop paying attention as the draft carries on, but the winning owners know that this is where the championship is won. Rounds 10-13 should be spent getting low risk, high reward sleeper picks. One of those players is Ryan Williams of the Arizona Cardinals.
Anyone who watched Williams play at Virginia Tech knows he has the talent to be successful at the NFL level. Unfortunately, he missed last season due to injuries. That did not stop the Cardinals from drafting him in the second round with the 38th overall pick. They know he has the skills, and with Arizona he has the opportunity.
Beanie Wells is officially the starting running back, but this might only be for a matter of time. Wells was awful last year, finishing with only 397 yards rushing. Despite having plenty of chances to show he can get the job done, Wells has failed to do so.
Ryan Williams will get his opportunity to shine and when he does, you better hope he is doing so on your team.
C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
5 of 6Draft Position: 108.2
Auction Dollars: 2.6
Another quality player that can be found at the end of drafts is C.J. Spiller. He did not light up the highlight reels in his rookie year like he did when he was at Clemson, but this year might be a different story. When drafted, he was stuck on the depth chart behind two proven starters in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. Now Lynch is gone and Jackson has to prove that he can still be the man in Buffalo. If he does not, Spiller will be right there waiting.
Spiller is unlike others on the list in that it is unknown when or if his opportunity will come. It is very possible that he'll continue to lose carries to Fred Jackson on a terrible team in Buffalo. However, it is also possible that he gets his chance to shine and takes advantage of it. Spiller has a rare combination of speed and agility that could allow him to score from anywhere on the field.
If he does reach that level of productivity, he would be worth a lot more than the very late draft pick or a couple of auction dollars that you used to get him.
Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants
6 of 6Draft Position: 109.6
Auction Dollars: 2.4
Despite getting up there in age, 29-year-old Brandon Jacobs can still be productive. He lost his starting spot on the New York Giants last season to teammate Ahmad Bradshaw, but Jacobs did not give up there. He finished 22nd in fantasy points, helped by his nine touchdowns and career best 5.6 yards per carry. By the end of the season, Jacobs was getting almost as many touches as Bradshaw.
For some reason, people are forgetting about Brandon Jacobs as a fantasy factor this season. His circumstances have not changed, but fantasy projections have him being drafted over 70 picks behind Bradshaw.
Realistically, owners should expect a guy to get into the end zone and receive about 10 carries a game to put up the yardage to make him fantasy relevant. Best case scenario, Bradshaw gets hurt and Jacobs becomes a full time back and a solid fantasy starter.
This is the type of player that can change a fantasy season because as you know, it is all about finding the best value.
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