UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle Bleacher Report MMA Staff Predictions

John HeinisJun 7, 2018

On Sunday, August 14, the UFC will hold its fifth edition of UFC on Versus. The main event will likely feature an always appreciated stand up war between Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy and Chris "Lights Out" Lytle.

The co-main event has huge title implications in the lightweight division, as Jim Miller takes on Ben "Smooth" Henderson.

While there are no guarantees, a win for Miller would certainly earn him a shot at the gold in the minds of many fans, fighters and analysts alike.

Meanwhile, Henderson would easily propel himself into the division's top 10 with an upset here.

Also battling it out at 155 pounds are 21-year-old prospects Charles Oliveira and Jackson MMA student Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone.

The final fight on the main card will feature former "The Ultimate Fighter" winner Amir Sadollah squaring off against veteran journeyman Duane Ludwig.

This week, Dale DeSouza, Dwight Wakabayashi, Jordy McElroy, and myself, John Heinis, will be telling you how this week's main card is going down.

Let's take a look inside to see who the winners are going to be, as far as the Bleacher Report MMA staff is concerned.

Amir Sadollah vs. Duane Ludwig

1 of 5

John Heinis: Sadollah looked impressive en route to winning Season 7 of "The Ultimate Fighter"...and has done next to nothing since then.

Probably the only guy in the sport who practices Sambo besides Fedor Emelianenko, Sadollah has only fought six times in the past three years.

In that time, he lost convincingly to his toughest tests in Dong Hyun Kim and Johnny Hendricks. His best win to date is his most recent victory over DaMarques Johnson back in March.

Meanwhile, Ludwig has been dominated by the who's who of the welterweight and lightweight division, with his sole career highlight coming in the form of a knockout win over Jens Pulver in 2003.

Despite both fighters lack of credentials, I don't think this is a horrible fight to watch, as both guys have a Muay Thai background and will be willing to stand and trade.

At this juncture, I actually think Ludwig might have a little more skill on the feet, but his skills are nonexistent on the ground, and he can't beat anyone that has even a moderately recognizable name.

Sadollah will eat some heavy shots at times, but he will persevere and finish this fight.

Sadollah via second round TKO

Dale De Souza: It’s fights like this that make this card so tough to not watch, and the crazy thing about it is that this fight isn’t even a major fight.

For the career of Amir Sadollah, it might be major because he’s facing someone that will have as little issue with keeping the fight standing as he, although Duane Ludwig is not as versatile as Sadollah from my eyes.

Yes, Ludwig can win from the feet and he probably has the power to turn Sadollah’s lights out, but if the fight goes to the ground, he’s in Sadollah’s world, and if he doesn’t buy that, let him ask Damarques Johnson about whether Amir can be effective on the ground.

Unless we see some improved takedown defense from Ludwig, or unless Ludwig just overpowers Sadollah and bullies him with his striking, this is a fight that could be somewhat tailor-made for the TUF 7 Middleweight winner.

Don’t anticipate the same elbows that made Johnson tap out, but if Amir’s Muay Thai and takedown ability show itself on Sunday, do expect to do what he wanted to do to Johnson and choke Ludwig out.

Amir Sadollah by second round rear naked choke

Jordy McElroy: Is another MMA veteran being offered up as a sacrificial lamb so Amir Sadollah can stay afloat in the deep welterweight division?

We’ll find out when "The Ultimate Fighter" Season 7 winner takes on Duane Ludwig. Sadollah isn’t technically the most efficient fighter in the world, but he has an "it" factor.

Regardless of how a bout goes, he is never out of the fight. Determination and grit can’t be taught in gyms, and Sadollah is a master of both.

Ludwig, who is 5-5 in his last 10 bouts, is a respectable veteran of the sport, but he has lacked consistency throughout most of his career.

Sadollah will be the more fluid striker of the two, but Ludwig’s punching power makes him a live underdog.

Fans can expect a fun standup scrap while it lasts, but Sadollah’s continued attempts to press the action will start to wear on Ludwig, who will succumb to strikes in the second round.

Amir Sadollah by TKO Stoppage

Dwight Wakabayashi: Many people are pegging this fight as a Muay Thai vs. Kickboxing war, but I have to believe that if Sadollah is the cerebral fighter I think he is, that he takes the fight to where Ludwig is weak and that surely means the ground on Sunday night.

Sadollah has not been able to generate the real momentum he needs in his career to get him to higher rankings in the division and in many people's eyes, has underachieved since his TUF win.

Ludwig is a veteran of many kickboxing and MMA wars but is still vulnerable to submissions as he has been for his entire career.

Sadollah should be able to secure a takedown and get a win if he so chooses.

Sadollah by round 2 submission

Charles Oliveira vs. Donald Cerrone

2 of 5

John Heinis: Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone has won four fights in a row and is still waiting to get a top 10 opponent. A win over Oliveira would likely make that scenario come true, but that will be no easy feat.

The Brazilian Jiu Jitsu brown belt started off his professional career with 14 consecutive wins before getting submitted by perennial contender Jim Miller.

Oliveira's bad luck did not end there, as he was dominating Nik Lentz at the last UFC Live event before submitting him in the second round.

So how is that bad? The decision was changed to a no decision after it was ruled that Oliveira used an illegal knee prior to locking in the rear naked choke.

As dangerous of a prospect as "Do Bronx" is, Cerrone will use his Muay Thai skills and takedown defense to keep the fight standing.

Cerrone is no slouch on the ground in his own right, but his fight with Vagner Rocha showed that he has no interest in grappling with a credentialed BJJ guy.

And why should he if he can keep the fight going his way? This fight has show stealer written all over it, and I think Cowboy does just enough to get the very close decision.

Cerrone via split decision

Dale De Souza: Intriguing bout to say the least, and likely somebody’s candidate for the Submission of The Night, this is.

Donald Cerrone welcomed Vagner Rocha at UFC 131 and damaged Rocha badly enough to earn his unanimous decision win.

Charles Oliveira was seen as a top prospect before falling to Jim Miller at UFC 124—a feat that carries no shame whatsoever—but an illegal knee strike led to what was originally a submission win by rear naked choke at UFC on Versus 4 just two months ago.

As we all know, the ruling was overturned, making the bout a no-contest.

Compared to what it was before, Oliveira showed a little bit of improved striking before the illegal knee, but against Cerrone, who is as well-rounded as a brash, no-bulls**t Lightweight can get in MMA, Oliveira is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsoka (Brazilian Jiu-Jitsi ace) first and foremost.

That means unless he shows us some wicked Muay Thai or some blood-roasting kickboxing, he’s asking a genie to grant his death wish by standing with Cerrone.

The ground is where Cerrone may not in fact have a complete edge against Oliveira unless he can sweep him from the bottom and dominate from the top.

One of three candidates for Fight of The Night, I would definitely expect Cerrone to outdo Oliveira on the feet, but the big question mark is the fight on the ground.

Both men may do enough to make the rounds a little bit close to judge, and the end result depends on which position the three ringside judges choose to deem as the dominant position.

Regardless, it will not be a clear win, however, it will be Cerrone that does just a tiny bit more to get the “W."

Donald Cerrone by Split Decision (29-28 x 3; I will not be surprised if one judge says Cerrone wins all three rounds even if Cerrone really doesn’t win all three—or even any—rounds.)

Jordy McElroy: Fans could be in store for a possible sleeper for fight of the night when Charles Oliveira goes toe to toe with Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone.

Oliveira’s last couple of outings have been unfortunate. He made a huge mistake and paid for it quickly in his submission loss to Jim Miller at UFC 124. At UFC on Versus 4, his win over Nik Lentz was overturned to a no contest due to an illegal knee in the second round.

After dominating Lentz throughout the bout, it was a tough break for the young Brazilian to see the fight end in that fashion.

Now, he’ll face former WEC title contender Cerrone, who is coming off back-to-back UFC victories over Paul Kelly and Vagner Rocha.

Oliveira isn’t getting the same love as Rory MacDonald and Phil Davis, but his overall potential shines just as bright. His ability to shutdown wrestlers from bottom with world class BJJ is something all young fighters should take note of.

On the feet, he picks opponents apart with precision strikes and a combination of punches, knees, kicks and elbows.

Cerrone is a good boxer in his right. Along with a sturdy beard, he has a deep understanding of how to move around in the pocket and land effectively.

People tend to lean on Cerrone’s striking when breaking down fights, but he has never secured a single knockout win in his professional career.

Instead, he is more of a submission specialist, picking up 12 career submission victories. It doesn’t get much tougher than Cerrone, and he should test every aspect of Oliveira’s game.

With that said, the future is just too bright for "Do Bronx," who will pick up a unanimous decision.

Charles Oliveira by Unanimous Decision

Dwight Wakabayashi: This fight is an extremely intriguing match to predict, and I am looking forward to it. Donald Cerrone is one of my all time favorite fighters, and he is dangerous at all times in the fight whether it is standing up or on the ground. He can capitalize on a mistake in a split second.

Oliveira is a 21-year-old fighter who is coming off two humbling lessons in his young career. A no contest against Nik Lentz due to Charles’ reckless, illegal knee and a lightning fast submission loss to Jim Miller before that should be two good lessons that the youngster can bank.

He is extremely exciting and dangerous everywhere, but I just don't see him beating the skill, savvy and calm of "The Cowboy."

Cerrone via unanimous decision

Jim Miller vs. Ben Henderson

3 of 5

John Heinis: Miller is 20-2, with seven consecutive wins, with his only two career losses coming against Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard.

The fact that it's taken this long for him to get into title contention is a little astonishing to me.

Nevertheless, Miller gets his toughest test since his battle with Maynard when he takes on Ben Henderson.

While Henderson is unfortunately best known as the guy who got "Matrix" kicked by Anthony Pettis, he is highly skilled grappler with victories over the likes of Donald Cerrone (twice), Shane Roller, and Mark Bocek.

"Smooth" matches up with Miller a lot more than people are giving him credit for, especially since it's quite possible he possesses the striking advantage.

However, Miller's advantage in the aggression and wrestling department will be huge here, and while I think Henderson gives him a run for him money, Miller finally puts himself in line for a rematch he's been hoping for for a long time.

Miller via unanimous decision (29-28)

Dale De Souza: If you remember the WEC-UFC merger, you’ve seen this fight in print before, but this fight—the second of three main card fights that are Fight of The Night contenders—is no longer just “in print”.

It’s going down for real, and it’s difficult to tell exactly how this one will go because both Jim Miller and Ben Henderson are scary-beastly on an extreme level at submissions.

Miller has finished two more fights by submission than has Henderson, and unlike Miller’s decision losses to both halves of the UFC 136 headliner, Henderson lost a close unanimous decision to Anthony Pettis and passed out to an Anaconda Choke in his third pro fight.

That said Miller is going to have to knock Henderson into a comatose state to beat him, or he’s going to have to spend an entire round with Henderson’s neck trapped in a guillotine-choke in order to come anywhere close to forcing a tap, and the same goes for “The Smooth One.”

It’s likely Miller tries to knock Henderson out, but what if Henderson tries the same?

Yes, he doesn’t have the same explosiveness as a Sam Stout does, but really speaking, Miller has never had any one-punch KO power either.

What this one boils down is who can connect with the more effective submission attempts.

Both men can sink in some disgusting submissions and score big from them, but with how tough both guys are, I wouldn’t bank on this one ending with an actual submission.

Jim Miller by Majority Decision or Split Decision

Jordy McElroy: The UFC should turn off the lights for the true main event when top lightweight contenders Jim Miller and Ben Henderson do battle.

This bout could decide the next No. 1 contender for the lightweight title. Henderson, the former WEC champion, has been apart of the title picture for a long time.

He was recently knocked off by Anthony Pettis in December 2010, but Clay Guida’s win over the 24-year-old Taekwondo phenom puts Henderson in prime position to leapfrog to the forefront of the title picture.

Riding a seven-fight win streak, Miller is long due a title shot. The only two losses in his professional career have come to top lightweights Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard. A win over Henderson could finally get him over the hump and thrust him into title contention.

Miller and Henderson are evenly matched on paper. Both are very good wrestlers with decent striking. Henderson may hold a slight edge on the feet, but Miller has continued to show strides of improvement with his standup.

On the ground, Miller is the better submission artist, but Henderson showcases otherworldly defense by continuously finding his way out of impossible positions. This is a closer bout than most are making it out to be.

The WEC fighters are still working to earn the respect of some fans, and it’s easy to see why Miller would be the favorite in this bout.

It could really go either way, but this analyst is banking on Henderson slightly outworking Miller in all areas for a highly-contested split decision.

Ben Henderson by Split Decision

Dwight Wakabayashi: This fight is going to be one of my favorite fights of the year I think, as Jim Miller or Ben Henderson will fight to see who is next in line for a shot at the coveted lightweight title.

This fight will pit the smooth and silky, tough and durable, Henderson, against the brash brawler, grind tough, Miller. It's beautiful matchup that you don't get to see every day.

People don't know how to call this one and it sure is intriguing, but I feel like Miller will end up catching hold of Henderson at the right times with his punches and wrestling and will end up taking a victory.

Miller by Unanimous Decision

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Dan Hardy vs Chris Lytle

4 of 5

John Heinis: In my book, the fact that this is the main event over Miller vs Henderson is an atrocity. Not that I'm pissed off this fight is on the main card, though.

Hardy has lost three in a row, and while he didn't get beaten down by any slouches, he didn't look even slightly competitive in his fights with Georges St-Pierre, Carlos Condit, and Anthony Johnson.

Meanwhile, Lytle, always a journey, was on a four fight win streak before being defeated by Brian Ebersole at UFC 127.

Neither guy is even remotely relevant at 170 pounds, but Hardy has little to no grappling game and Lytle likes to stand and trade.

The UFC also wants to keep one of their top British fighters on the roster, so this fight was designed to give Hardy a much needed win.

While Lytle has lost 18 times, he has only been stopped twice, and those were a doctor stoppage and cut TKO respectively.

Therefore, I don't see Hardy's punching power being enough to keep Lytle down, but he is a far better striker technically, so I think he wins a fairly comfortable decision.

I'll say it now, though: I wouldn't be completely shocked if Lytle took the fight to the ground and submitted Hardy.

Hardy via unanimous decision

Dale DeSouza: The third of three main-carders with Fight of The Night written all over them

It’s like this: Chris Lytle is the UFC’s “Mr. P-P-V,” plain and simple—ever since he lost to Matt Serra at the TUF 4 Finale, the man has been dead set on putting on crowd pleasing performances and jacking the all-important Fight of The Night and Submission of The Night bonuses along the way.

Even in a surprising loss to Brian Ebersole at UFC 127, a loss in which Ebersole replaced Carlos Condit and dominated all three rounds, Chris Lytle hung tight and fought hard enough to where he and Ebersole won Fight of The Night bonuses, which broke a two-fight bonus-skid (albeit, he was on a win streak).

Shockingly, Dan Hardy has not done the same in his UFC run at all, but he is known in UFC and MMA circles as a guy who is always willing to stand, exchange, and go for the knockout.

Hardy’s main flaw is that he’s been widely seen as one-dimensional, as he’s been unable to hold his own much on the ground, and the question remains if his chin has recovered from Carlos Condit’s KO of him at UFC 120.

Lytle is the classic “jack of all trades,” but he’s as much a master of all trades as well—he can submit people, knock them out, and he can defend some of their best efforts.

Against Hardy, that universal mastery of combat should come into play, as he outlands Hardy on the feet, drops him, lays in some heavy punishment, and eventually does what Anthony Johnson couldn’t do to him: he will be the first UFC fighter to successfully submit Dan Hardy in what could be Dan Hardy’s last UFC fight.

Chris Lytle by third-round Arm Triangle

Jordy McElroy: It’ll be do or die for Dan Hardy as he tries to avoid getting his lights turned out by Chris Lytle.

Coming off three straight losses, Hardy should be counting his blessings. He is still in the UFC, and he somehow finds himself headlining a main card.

While Lytle isn’t coming off consecutive losses, he was defeated soundly in his last outing by Brian Ebersole. This fight is in place to appease standup fanatics that hope to get the most out of Hardy’s skill set.

Lytle has already stated that he wants to give Hardy the fight "he deserves," which won’t include exposing "The Outlaw’s" suspect ground game. Hardy should have a distinct advantage in the open exchanges.

He utilizes more movement, and he should be able to tee off on Lytle at angles. Lytle retains a more traditional boxing stance that tends to get him eaten up in the exchanges against any multi-dimensional striker with lateral movement.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hardy go limp for a third time in the octagon, but he should be able to outland Lytle on the feet and pick up the unanimous decision in a fairly exciting bout.

Dan Hardy by Unanimous Decision

Dwight Wakabayashi: Dan Hardy has his back against the wall on Sunday night, and you can bet he'll come out swinging against banger Chris Lytle.

Hardy is trying to avoid the dreaded fourth loss in a row, which would surely leave him in no mans land if not cut from the UFC.

Lytle is well, Lytle and he will bring a reckless abandon meant to confuse Hardy and entertain the fans. He is that type of guy.

In the end, I think it will be Hardy's technical punching and hunger that will outwork the veteran and bring him a much needed victory.

Hardy by Round 3 Knockout