Predictions Based on the Season So Far

So far, although the 2008-2009 NBA season is still in its infancy, there has been quite a fair bit of surprising performances, ranging from startlingly impressive (Hawks) to unbelievably abysmal (Spurs). What should we make of them?

After all it is only November, and teams have played between four and six games so far, hardly a sample size that would satisfy the worst of statisticians. However, the Celtics did begin with a 6-0 (eventually 12-0) run last season that was pretty much indicative of their dominance.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Heat did open with a 1-5 run, pretty fair extrapolation of their entire season. Going out on a limb, I will throw out my predictions on some of the more headline grabbing starts.

Category I: What you see is what you get

1) Phoenix Suns (5-2)

Yup, two of their big three are 35 and above. Yes, they are no longer the most fun team to watch in the NBA. And yes, we are still not seeing a convincing commitment to defense, but they have Amare, a real monster in the paint. Their window may be closing, but they are still an offensive force and a legitimate threat this season.

2) Golden State Warriors (2-4):

The moment Baron Davis bolted town, analysts have been predicting the demise of the warriors. When Monta Ellis was injured with the most famous moped accident in the world, the writing was on the wall. Coupled with the Al Harrington saga...A more challenging prediction is whether Don Nelson or Chris Mullin will be ushered out first.

3) Memphis Grizzlies (3-3)

It is a bit curious that a team with a .500 record would be fodder for any story lines, but these are the Memphis Grizzlies we are talking about. After two consecutive 22-60 seasons, where Memphis is a bit of a vacation spot for visiting teams, expectations are rock bottom for them.

If things were not bad enough, they gave away their best player last season for what essentially was viewed as Kwame Brown's expiring contract. Well, Chris Wallace looks a great deal smarter than we gave him credit for, with Marc Gasol looking like a pretty good player in his own right.

Coupled with Rudy Gay's continual growth and the draft-night trade for O.J. Mayo, good things are going to happen. Yes, they may not make the playoffs with how loaded the West are this season, but at least they are not dwelling firmly in the cellar, unlike...

4) Oklahoma City Thunder (1-4)

Yup, there are worse teams so far, but they can still put up excuses of injuries (Wizards & Spurs) and just plain bad luck (Wolves). OKC Thunder is going to finish this season the same way they did when they were still the Seattle Supersonics. On second thought, this is hardly a prediction, more of a statement of fact. The only excitement for Thunder fans this season is a high lottery pick.

Category II: The jury is still out

1) Atlanta Hawks (4-0)

The Hawks, one of the three unbeaten teams left? What is next, the Spurs being the door mat of the Southwest? Anyway, the Hawks look like legitimate playoff contenders, with Joe Johnson looking like an early MVP candidate.

That aside, their bench is wafer thin and might not stand up to the rigors of a deep postseason run, not to mention that Mike Bibby providing the leadership is not exactly championship material. Still, the Hawks have proved they are no one-season wonder.

2) Houston Rockets (4-2)

Their "Big Three" are fitting together nicely, and Artest gives an already deep team yet another potent weapon, while ostensibly acclimatising nicely in Houston. Their record should have been more dominant, if not for an unbelievable 1.9-second heroics from Brandon Roy.

Still, some things do not change. The same questions of Yao Ming and T-Mac’s health are asked, along with that of Artest’s (mental). Unlike other teams, the Rockets' greatest threats are from within.

3) Los Angeles Clippers (0-6)

It is all too easy to pencil them in for the lottery, even in the wake of the first post-Elgin Baylor season. 0-6 and a league-lowest scoring of 84.2, the Clippers are the same as they have always been, right?

Firstly, Camby and Davis, their compensation for being Brand-ed, have been sidelined with illness and injuries. Secondly, their opening schedule is TOUGH, playing their rolling city neighbours twice, not to mention the Jazz and the Rockets with the Nuggets being the only respite.

If they do not eek out at least two victories out their next five (Mavs, Kings, Warriors, Spurs, and Thunder) I am ready to move them to Category I, though.

4) Washington Wizards (0-5)

Once Agent Zero comes back, the Wizards will be steamrolling the competition, right into the playoffs? Not quite, but a team with Butler and Jamison can’t possibly be this BAD. Just like a team with Dwyane Wade and Shaq will not be the whipping boys? It may be early days yet, but if the Wizards don’t buck up, trade rumors will start flying about.

Category III: It is merely a blip

1) San Antonio Spurs (1-4)

I watched the game against the Miami Heat, and the Spurs looked horrible. After Parker had hobbled off, and Duncan was sitting on the bench, there was a period of time when they merely passed the ball around like a hot potato until someone just fired up a prayer from beyond the arc.

Nevertheless, the Spurs have never been impressive in the regular season, and having Manu sidelined is devastating. The good news is that Mason and Hill are looking like good pickups, and Parker and Ginobili are still coming back; just like you can count on the Spurs coming back in the postseason.

2) Dallas Mavericks (2-3)

Kidd is over the hill. Dirk is not clutch. Josh Howard is a bonehead. I beg to differ, at least for the first two. They may not be the dominant force they were two seasons ago, but I am not ready to write them off yet. No one outside of Dallas can see them as the elite in the west, but they are definitely in the second tier.

3) Philadelphia 76-ers (2-4)

When the Elton Brand signing took place, many were installing Philly to challenge Pistons and the Cavs for the second place in the east. Fast-forward the second week of the new season: Brand and Dalembert does not seem to be the dominant interior force many envisaged, and Iguodala has been shooting an abysmal 23-61 field goals. Count on Miller to provide the steadying hand as Philly picks themselves up again.

4) New York Knicks (3-2)

Mike D’Antoni is the savior leading the Mecca of basketball back into the playoffs? Not so fast. Getting rid of Isiah means that there is reason for hope, but much of his handiwork remains. With the "Buried Star" and "Fat Boy" clogging up the rosters, his hands are still tied and the Knicks are still lottery bound. There is hope yet; maybe the Knicks' management can drive the Doomed Duo nuts and give them a legitimate reason to void their contracts.

There you have it, my take on the noteworthy performances so far.