UFC 133: What a Loss to Tito Ortiz Would Mean for Rashad Evans

In 2007 a young up-and-coming light heavyweight met a brash veteran hellbent on defending the honor of his sport from the new breed that was on the way up. That fight, between a green Rashad Evans and a grizzled Tito Ortiz, ended in a draw after Ortiz was ahead on the scorecards but evened them by losing a point for grabbing the cage.

On Saturday night, the same men will meet again. The stakes and roles will be grossly different.

Evans is now a former world champion, a gifted athlete who has rounded out his remarkable wrestling with high-level boxing. He was due a title shot—twice—until fate conspired against him.

Ortiz is a resurgent fighter, a big name that still draws eyes to the sport but had been doing so without winning a fight since 2006. That is, until he won a do-or-die scrap with hot prospect Ryan Bader only five weeks ago, and did so in emphatic fashion. All of a sudden, Tito’s back.

These are two guys on different trajectories since their last meeting, but two guys who will meet once again regardless.

The story of Rashad Evans has been well-documented. He took the light heavyweight title from Forrest Griffin, dropped it to Lyoto Machida, and has been clawing his way back ever since.

He earned the chance at gold once again by toppling his arch rival, Rampage Jackson, at UFC 114 and waited almost a year to get that chance against Shogun Rua. He was hurt in training, passed his chance to training partner Jon Jones, and watched the polarizing youngster win the belt he thought would be his.

After some bickering and other silliness, the two were set to fight until Jones pulled out with a hand injury. Only his hand wasn’t injured. Unfortunately, Evans had already taken another fight, meaning that Jones would defend against Jackson while Evans would have to re-earn his title shot against rising star Phil Davis.

Furthermore, only two weeks out from the fight, Davis was forced to drop out due to injury. Evans was almost rematched with Machida, who eventually balked due to contractual issues.

Simply put, it’s been a hard few months for Rashad Evans.

Enter Ortiz, an unlikely white knight for Zuffa, with whom he’s suffered a tumultuous relationship for almost a decade now, to save the day. He agrees to fight Evans on short notice, and we arrive where we currently are—awaiting the arrival of each man to the cage on Saturday.

However there is a noteworthy question that remains: what happens to Rashad Evans should he lose to the upstart Ortiz? Dana White has said Tito is the only thing stopping Evans from his long-awaited shot at the title, but what if he can’t put away Huntington Beach’s favorite son?

First, the obvious impact is that a loss against Tito immediately wrestles that title shot from his grasp—a shot he’s been sitting on for well over a year, no less. It also propels Tito into the top-five of a division he hasn’t been relevant in for half a decade.

Second, Evans losing to Ortiz likely costs the UFC a big payday in terms of Rashad’s next fight. His blood feud with Rampage was a cash cow, and a rematch would likely sell well should Rampage topple Jon Jones. If Jones is victorious, the battle between former-friends-turned-bitter-rivals would probably outsell any other headliner the company could do at 205.

The third consideration of Evans loss would be the inevitable earful he’d receive from his employer. White hasn’t been shy about disagreeing with Rashad’s decision to sit and wait for his title shot, and should he lose to Tito you can guarantee that Dana will be quick to point out all the ways that Rashad dropped the ball by waiting.

The fourth, final, and likely most important thing that a loss to Tito would mean to Rashad Evans, though, is that he would have no clear-cut path going into his next fight. He left Greg Jackson’s camp, a camp he was essentially a founding member of, over the Jones dispute. If his next fight isn’t Jones, was the really worth it? Especially if his new camp didn’t prepare him adequately to beat Ortiz? Is this a path he wants to stay on?

And who is his next opponent if he can’t beat Tito? Davis? Forrest Griffin? Shogun? Machida again? A win over Tito, and it’s one of two guys next, with a guaranteed shot at gold. A loss, and he’s back in the middle of the pack with a host of other guys, none of whom he can claim any right to be ahead of without going out and beating them.

He could be three, maybe four fights away from the title if he loses to Oritz. Given his age and the time between fights, that might be too much for him to overcome.

Overall, UFC 133 looks to be a solid card with an intriguing headliner. In fact, with the momentum Tito Ortiz has built in the past month and the amount on the line for Rashad Evans, it might be more appealing than it was before Phil Davis got hurt.

Either way, a loss for Rashad would be crippling to his ascent in the light heavyweight division, and the trickle-down effect could go deep and be felt for a long time afterwards.