Packers-Vikings Re-Match Preview

The Packers and Vikings have their re-match this Sunday, and it is a big one. In all likelihood, the NFC Wild Card teams will come out of the East and South divisions, so if the Packers can win, they would be a game up on Minnesota with the tie-break, with the Bears possibly two games up on them and having won the first contest.

Thus, they could all but eliminate the Vikings from the playoffs.

The Packers are not facing as dire an outlook with a loss, but chances are this is a must-win game for either team to make the playoffs. The Packers still have to play an elite Carolina team plus very competitive opponents in the Bears (twice) and Saints.

Thus, if Green Bay cannot beat Minnesota, it is not realistic to expect better than a 9-7 finish. In that case, the only realistic hope would be to win the division via a three-way tie-break.

The Packers have had well-documented troubles stopping the run. The team is ranked 28th in the league (146.4 yards per game) in this category, with the only two games in which the opposition was held under 100 yards being against the league's two worst rushing attacks.

In week one, Minnesota ran the ball effectively even though the Packers still had Cullen Jenkins. The Vikings come in as the league's sixth best attack, so this does not bode well for Green Bay.

However, the Packers defense matches up exceptionally with the Vikings passing attack. Not only are the Packers ranked fifth against the pass (183.9 yards per contest), the Vikings passing offense is ranked just 17th (207.8 yards per contest).

The Vikings attack has improved since Gus Frerotte has taken over at quarterback (averaging 229 yards per game), but they have lost the threat of a running quarterback that gives the man-to-man defense of the Packers fits. Furthermore, he has only a 77.6 passer rating mostly because he thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns (eight). The Packers are tied for the league lead in interceptions, and have returned a league-high five for scores.

Meanwhile, on the offensive side of the ball, the Packers running game, ranked 21st in the league (101.1 yards per game), is just starting to get its legs, figuratively and literally. Ryan Grant, hampered by a hamstring injury early in the season, has had his three best games in a row. However, Minnesota's run defense is ranked second in the league (69.6 yards per game), and they will not be without their standout defensive tackles who face possible suspension.

Both teams are solid on special teams, so there is not an appreciable edge to either team there. Thus, expect the Packers to load up to stop the run on defense and run only enough to keep the Vikings honest on offense.

Unless Green Bay can come up with a couple of early big scores or turnovers to take the running game away from Minnesota, expect them to wear down defensively as the Vikings maintain an advantage in time of possession. However, I expect a conservative game out of Vikings coach Brad Childress to avoid the turnover risk.

Thus, I'm going to pick the Vikings at home, 24-20. So far this season, I am 5-3 in Packers games, having been wrong when picking victories over the Falcons and Buccaneers as well as picking a loss against the Colts.