Sergio Martinez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.: 5 Thoughts on a Possible Matchup

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. is 43-0 with one no contest and he holds the WBC middleweight belt. He's got a rugged, brawling style that belies his youthful good looks. He is the son of, and carries the name of, the most beloved Mexican champion of the past 50 years.

Most importantly of all: He is promoted by Bob Arum and trained by Freddy Roach. Under the powerfully protective wing of Top Rank, he has been groomed and maneuvered through his career as carefully as any fighter since Primo Carnera.

I'm not sure what percentage of my readers will even be aware of the history behind the WBC belt making its way to around Chavez's waist.

It starts with Sergio Martinez holding the title but vacating it when HBO essentially forced him to take a fight with Paul Williams, instead of a mandatory defense against WBC No. 1 contender Sebastian Zbik. HBO execs maintained the European Zbik was not a marketable enough opponent to justify broadcasting. Zbik was then awarded the belt in a conference room, on the condition that he agree to meet Chavez in his first defense.   

But HBO then agreed to broadcast a fight between Chavez and Zbik! You know, just because Bob Arum asked them nicely. And because HBO is desperate for Arum to bring Manny Pacquiao back to HBO PPV after placing him on Showtime recently.

Whatever plotting went on behind the scenes, the payoff for Chavez-Zbik was a jackpot. Chavez lifted the belt in an exciting, closely contested fight. The legendary father, fresh from induction into Canestota, and the rising star son had their photo op in the ring and pretty much every boxing fan in the world enjoyed seeing it. 

And oh how that planning has paid off. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. today is a major boxing event waiting to happen: Huge gait and PPV buys, mainstream media attention and a stadium full of screaming fans.

"But To Be the Man, You've Got To Beat the Man!"

Meanwhile, Sergio Martinez, the current Ring magazine middleweight champion of the world (i.e. the only one that actually matters), is a man very much in need of a high profile, big money fight. Ring has him ranked No. 2 on their pound-for-pound list and at the moment he has no significant prospects for a showdown with another star. He is scheduled to face the undefeated, and still unheralded, Darren Barker 24(14)-0 October 1 in Atlantic City.

Martinez called Chavez out within days of Chavez winning the title from Zbik. 

So in the Happy, Fantasy Candy Land World of the Magic Boxing Kingdom, this would all be terrific news. We have an exciting young challenger and a highly regarded champion in his prime, very much in need of a good test. In that Magic Boxing Kingdom, we would all be looking forward to watching this fight, probably sometime in October or November, instead of the matchup with Barker.

But unfortunately, we do not live in the happy, fantasy Candy Land World of the Magic Boxing Kingdom. We live in the World of the Alphabet Soup. And in that world, things just don't tend to go as they should. 

No, in our Alphabet Soup World, the smartest promoters can tug on the promotional organizations like puppet strings and use them to turn a marketable but flawed fighter into a succession of big paydays.

And that Bob Arum guy? He's an Ivy League dude.

His response to Martinez's challenge was disappointing, if predictable. As quoted by Ivan Goldman in The Ring, he disparaged Martinez as lacking enough name recognition to justify a matchup with his own fighter.

You know, that Sergio Martinez—the one who just landed the most iconic one punch knockout of the last 10 decades on Paul Williams last year. Yeah, that guy's somehow not "marketable."

Make No Mistake: Martinez Lays Chavez out If It Happens Right Now

Let's revisit that title fight with Zbik, that WBC president Jose Sulaiman so nicely laid out for JC Jr.

It would be unfair to say that Chavez, fighting for the Mexico City based-WBC belt, in front of a very partisan Southern California crowd, received a "hometown decision." To be more accurate, let's just call it razor close. 

I scored it a 114-114 draw. But it was the sort of draw where both fighters deserved to win. So Chavez deserved to win, and as far as anything he's personally done in the ring, he has every right to wear his belt with pride.

But Zbik was a much smaller man, undefeated in 30 fights going into the bout, but with only 10 knockouts. He has a highly credentialed amateur background and is a master of his craft. But he does not hit hard, at least not by world class boxing standards. 

Zbik hit Chavez a lot, and from a wide variety of angles. Chavez, a handsome kid, went home that night with at least a little bit more of what we middle aged guys like to call "character" tattooed into his skin.

According to The Ring, Chavez was re-hydrated all the way up to 180 pounds the night of the fight. Zbik, who weighed in at 158, was only 165 at the bell. Chavez's strategy was essentially to eat punches all night long, while pressing inside and making the smaller Zbik brawl.

Chavez might have a heart cut from the same stuff as his old man's, and he might have something of Pop's legendary chin, too. But if he plods forward, dipping to the body on Sergio Martinez, the way he did all night against Zbik, then Martinez is going to catch him over the top sooner, rather than later.

If you don't know what happens when Sergio Martinez catches you over the top then stop reading here for just a moment and open another window with your browser. Then go to YouTube and search for "Martinez-Williams Two."

Yup. That's what happens.

And Paul Williams is a slick fighter, or was considered to be at one time. That time back before Martinez put him to sleep. If Martinez could see and react to an opening like that from Williams, a boxer who was actually trying to put up a good defense, imagine how easily he will score on a guy like Chavez, who leads with his chin.

The Chavez Camp Is in It for the Long Haul

That's Alex Ariza with Julio Cesar Chavez in the picture. He's Freddy Roach's strength and conditioning guru and the guy responsible for building Chavez into the 180 pound monster that he was on fight night. He's the same guy who's brought Manny Pacquiao from featherweight to welterweight while getting stronger all the way.

Whatever the upper limit is on Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.'s talent, he is in a perfect position to reach it. He has one of the world's top training teams behind him and he gives the appearance of being a dedicated pupil, hungry to excel and live up to his name.

Now that he has that WBC strap, he should be able to remain fairly well protected as he continues his development under the guidance of Top Rank. Jose Sulaiman will probably be flexible (i.e. willing to rubber stamp) when naming WBC No. 1 challengers who the Top Rank Team find palatable.

HBO, anxious to placate Bob Arum, the man with the keys to Manny Pacquiao, will continue to broadcast his fights.

Heck, I'll continue to watch them! I don't believe the kid is the second coming, but he's sure one exciting fighter.

And with the top trainers in the world coaching him, it is not impossible to imagine that Chavez the Younger could develop to be quite a bit better than he is now. 

It could happen. He's very exciting, if flawed, right now. At worst, he should put on some entertaining fights. I'd be thrilled to see a rematch with Zbik, for a start.

A Wild Card: What About Saul Alvarez?

Chavez Jr. may be the son of the icon, but as near as I can tell from reading about it (and keep in mind, like most ignorant Gringos I don't read much Spanish) Saul Alvarez is the most popular fighter in Mexico right now. And after the one-sided beat down he put on Ryan Rhodes, the 154 WBC champ deserves to be.

Canelo has to be regarded as a potential super fight opponent for both Martinez and Chavez. Before he easily dismantled the veteran Rhodes I might have been inclined to feel Alvarez wasn't quite ready for a fighter of Martinez's caliber. But after his performance last June, I say it's time to give the exciting redhead with the huge fan base behind him a big name opponent.

I still don't know that I think Alvarez can beat Martinez. But I'd be stoked to see him try.

Against Chavez, at this point I think Alvarez exposes his fellow countryman's still very glaring flaws all night long and probably knocks him out. I can't imagine Arum has any plans for making that fight anytime soon. 

But continuing to prepare JC Jr. for such a matchup in the future has got to be priority No. 1 for Top Rank. If both young fighters continue to win, a showdown will be inevitable. The passionate Mexican boxing fans might riot en masse if it does not.

Mexican telecom magnate and world's richest man, Carlos Slim, has already expressed a desire to throw tons of money at fighters in order to stage big boxing events as a "gift" to his fellow Mexican citizens.

So imagine some Cinco de Mayo in the next year or two, the undefeated WBC Middleweight Champion Chavez Jr. versus the undefeated WBC Jr. Middleweight Champion Alvarez, in Estadio Azteca. That fight seems too potentially huge not to happen.

Meanwhile, at 36, Martinez is not getting any younger. And Maravilla needs big fights now, not two or three years into the future.

His best chance for that will probably come from moving up in weight again, and gunning for some of the big names at 168.