Horton Needs To Hear from Who Matters

Can a seventh round pick really get a fair shake when it comes to voting on Defensive Rookie of the Year?

GMs from across the NFL, Mel Kiper, and the boys from Scouts Inc. (I am pretty sure they don’t let women work there because they are most likely incapable of verbal discourse with the opposite sex) think they have a really good bead on things. 

Each year, they get up and unequivocally tell us plebeians who is NFL worthy and who is not. The only thing threatening their treasured dictatorship of received draft talent wisdom is the fact that, for the most part, they are just guessing.

Here’s what they don’t want you to know: In order to keep their silly-looking mugs on TV a few times a year and for 12 hours a day during the draft, they have to make you believe that their guess is a good one.

This leads me to my beef of the week. At 12:54 PM on Wednesday Nov. 5, ESPN came out with a poll for NFL midseason awards. They are trying to project who the winners are going to be for the major NFL awards.

One of these polls asks “Who is Rookie of the Year” and the choices visitors to the Web site and viewers of SportsCenter can choose from are the following: Chris Long, Jerod Mayo, Matt Ryan, Chris Johnson, and Matt Forte. 

Let’s not worry about that there is no award for Rookie of the Year for a second (There is Defensive Rookie of the Year and Offensive Rookie of the Year—you would think the crack team of hundreds of paid writers, analysts, and researchers at ESPN would be aware of this) and look at the fact that only two defensive players are listed: Jerod Mayo and Chris Long. 

At 5:21 PM that very same day, ESPN.com published a Scouts Inc. article, listing their choices for the midseason awards. This article included Defensive Rookie of the Year and their winner was (Surprise!) Chris Long and their runner up was (Surprise again!) Jerod Mayo. Their justification:

Unlike past seasons, no rookie defender has stood out as a dominant performer so far in 2008. Patriots LB Jerod Mayo leads all rookies in tackles (59), but he hasn't provided any big plays (zero sacks, interceptions and forced fumbles) to go with those stops. Long's 28 tackles are a respectable total for a defensive lineman, and he also has four sacks through eight games...(Source: ESPN.com and Scouts Inc.)

Let’s look at these stats more closely. If you were to project Long’s stats out for a full year, assuming he doesn’t get hurt and starts every game, he would end up with 56 tackles and eight sacks ranking him (using 2007 Stats) 26th in tackles and 21st in sacks among defensive lineman. 

Jerod Mayo would end up with a slightly more respectable rank of 15th in tackles; however, he has zero sacks, zero interceptions, and zero forced fumbles. If you apply a fantasy value based on the Yahoo IDP scoring system, and Long would have 87 points and Mayo would have 111 pts.

You know who isn’t even mentioned? Strong safety for the Washington Redskins, Chris Horton.

Horton came into the NFL under relative obscurity. A seventh-round draft pick out of UCLA, Horton was the 249th player taken overall, and the last safety chosen in the draft. Horton wasn’t even the first safety drafted by the Redskins (Kareem Moore in the sixth). Even though Horton had 90 tackles in senior year and was first team all Pac-10, Scouts Inc. gave him a grade of 31 in the draft, which is described as:

“…players that teams like something about, but certainly do not have the full package in terms of NFL talent. A lot of times, teams will take chances on character players or developmental type athletes with this grade. And often, these are players that come from smaller schools or did not standout at the college level. NFL teams are looking for 'diamonds in the rough' with this type of prospect. He will usually rate in the bottom third of players at his position and will be considered a late round draft choice or un-drafted free agent.” (Source: ESPN.com)

The individual scouting report on Horton reads:

Doesn't show great burst coming out of cuts and is going to have problems matching up with explosive slot receivers. Lacks ideal ball skills and drops some passes that should catch. Lacks ideal upper body strength, doesn't show a violent punch and takes too long to shed blocks when lined up in the box.” And “…isn't much of a playmaker.” (Source: ESPN.com)

Since being drafted, Horton has not only contributed but won the starting SS position by Week Four. His projected stats for the year are 84 tackles, two fumble recoveries and sacks, six interceptions, and 10 pass deflections. 

This would rank him (using 2007 stats again) 26th in tackles and fifth in interceptions among all defensive backs. Using Yahoo’s IDP scoring, he would end with 122 points—35 more than Long and 11 more than Mayo.

If you still needed more evidence, among all rookies, Horton currently ranks fourth in total tackles (fifth in solo tackles and fourth in assists), third in pass breakups, and first in interceptions (tie). 

No other rookie ranks even in the top 20 in all those categories. Horton has been a key cog in a Redskins defense that ranks fourth in total defense (fifth against the run and seventh against the pass).

So why isn’t Horton even included in these types of polls or mentioned on major websites like ESPN? Because Chris Long was taken second overall and Mayo was taken 10th overall, and if Chris Horton, the 249th overall pick, wins Defensive Rookie of the Year, then NFL GM’s, Mel Kiper, and Scouts Inc. have to admit they were dead wrong, and if they do that too much, then eventually, they won’t be asked to contribute to ESPN, NFL.com, or CBSSportsline.com. 

In fact, since the inception of the award in 1967, only two players  selected after the second round have ever been bestowed the honor (1988 – S Erik McMillan, third round and 1980 - LB Al Richardson, eighth round) and 85 percent have been first-round selections.

Rational self-interest exhibited by sports analysts and NFL GM’s is the major inhibitor to players like Horton getting their due credit. Don’t get me wrong, Chris Long and Jerod Mayo are great rookies, but the bottom line is that they clearly aren’t better—or more valuable to their team—than Chris Horton.

Edited by “Chef” Ali Rahman(and several others)