Joe Calzaghe: Roy Jones' Kryptonite?

After Bernard Hopkins' thrilling win over Pavlik and Jones’s confidence and calm in the 24/7 TV shows, one would think that another major upset is in on the horizon.  Alas, it is not to be.  We need to remember two old sayings that are strangely applicable to this fight.  First: Lightning never strikes twice. But most importantly, styles make fights.

The question with Hopkins and Pavlik was whether Hopkins had enough to close the show.  Everyone knew that Hopkins had the style, savvy, and experience to beat Pavlik.  The lingering question was stamina, a question that “The Ghostbuster” answered pretty definitively. 

The question with Jones is a similar one but the dynamics have changed somewhat.  “The Pensacola Pinwheel” is appropriately named, but his fancy-Dan moves and “cuteness” (to borrow an adjective from the earlier part of last century) are relatively ineffective against the high-volume, high-speed attack of Calzaghe.  Speaking of speed, Calzaghe’s hand speed and combinations are almost on par with those of Roy Jones in his prime, meaning before 2003. 

Another thing to consider is Jones’ chin.  He was knocked out four years ago (and once in a particularly viscous fashion) by opponents who have average power, to be generous. This occurred not once, but twice.  Calzaghe is not exactly known for his power, but one lucky shot (which gets even more likely when you’re throwing a hundred punches a round) could lay Jones out. 

While the age difference is only three years, Calzaghe is definitely more youthful.  He has performed at a high level against his last four opponents and looked pretty good in all of them.  (Except Hopkins, but who does look good against him?)  Getting your ass beat the way Jones did takes something out of you.  Not to mention that Jones’ latest victory was a less-than-outstanding points win over a retired, ring-rusted welterweight.  Jones definitely talks the talk, but it would appear that at this juncture the heart and mind are willing but the body is not. 

Experience is also a non-factor.  Sure, Jones has had a ton of big fights under bright lights, but so has Calzaghe.  Remember, Calzaghe was an underdog when he defended his title in front of 12,000 rabid Welshmen against Jeff Lacy.  Granted, he had the hometown advantage, but one would think that a good many of the Queen’s subjects will be in the Garden tomorrow night. At worst, the cheering will be split 50/50 in favor of Calzaghe.  Also, in his American debut on Live Coast-to-Coast TV, Calzaghe was able to get up off the canvas, and go on to get to Hopkins more than any other opponent the Philadelphia tough man has faced.

Meanwhile, Jones has been losing and then facing mediocre competition for mild paydays in what would be an ill-advised comeback.  Even in his prime Jones didn’t fight truly tough opposition.  Calzaghe may be regarded as a protected European fighter, but at least he’s been facing harder and harder competition as he has aged.  Not to mention he has captured undisputed world championships in two divisions. 

Hopkins' victory has had us waxing nostalgic for a few weeks.  It is a common trait amongst boxing fans to ignore the obvious signs of degradation in the hopes that our heroes will prevail.  Muhammad Ali is a great example.  Fans ignored his slower feet and lessening stamina in the fights against Foreman and Frazier (the third time).

Although he won both, they came at a terrible cost. His strategy moved from being fleet of foot and working in the center of the ring to laying on the ropes and countering only at convenient times. This was taken as strategic genius instead being clear evidence that his body had forsook him after such a punishing career.  So entranced was the public that Ali was even installed as a favorite over Holmes during his second-to-last comeback. 

It would appear that Jones is in a similar place.  Eight years ago, he would have layed out Trinidad in one round and would be a clear favorite over Calzaghe.  Today, he is an old man who has absorbed too much punishment to return to who he was.  I advise Jones to let it all go after this fight and for his fans to follow suit.