Pan Report: Fedor Emelianenko vs. Dan Henderson Betting Lines

Zuffa’s farm league puts on its biggest show to date on July 30^th, when two of the sports most storied fighters clash in the event’s headlining bout. Fedor “The Last Emperor” Emelianenko (31-3) will face Dan “Hendo” Henderson (27-8) in a rare fight that will showcase over 25 years of mixed martial arts experience.

The agreement provided fighters to weigh-in around the 220-lb mark, requiring the bout to be sanctioned at HW. During yesterday’s weigh-ins, Henderson tipped the scale one pound over his predicted weight (207). He yields more than 15 pounds to Fedor (223), who benefits from a sizeable weight advantage.

The fight should be very entertaining, regardless of the fact it won’t disrupt either LHW or HW standings. Nor will it serve to boost Strikeforce’s increasingly disappointing HW GP by providing a storied alternate to uplift the lacklustre remaining final four.

The latest news is that Daniel Cormier will be subbing for the renegade—and derby favourite—Alistair Overeem…a move that surely won’t increase the organization’s fan base.

Lines currently have Fedor the favourite (-260) over Hendo (+200), with a net wager transfer favouring The Last Emperor over the last week. Henderson is ceding 20 dollars (+180) to the Russian’s additional 30 (-230).

Buying Fedor lines early proved strategic yet again, as name recognition among the average fan resulted in money being poured onto him closer to fight time, decreasing returns for later buyers.

This is the first fight in ages where betting on a Fedor match-up remained reasonable. Suffering two straight losses sobers fans up efficiently. The Last Emperor is, after all, another mortal mammal—and fans took notice post Werdum and Silva outings.

Gone are the days where Fedor walked in a heavy favourite, reaching stratospheric heights with lines, at one point listed at -1000 to Werdum’s +500, and -500 to Big Foot’s +350.

This time around lines accurately reflect Fedor’s overall advantage, mainly afforded by his stand-up prowess. The man is still very nimble and lands effectively from a variety of angles, keeping opponents on their toes.

Months ago, in an interview where he discussed his upcoming bout against Fedor, Hendo stated he wanted to make the Russian work early on. That could translate into planning on slowing Fedor down by resorting to his wrestling base and make him carry his (lighter) weight on the ground. Or press him against the cage and clinch the humility out of the humble Russian fellow.

Whatever Hendo’s preference, he should use his wrestling and avoid the stalking strategy employed of late, where he relentlessly follows opponents with his right-hand perennially cocked to deliver a Bisping-like, fight-ending KO.

Fedor’s demise was inevitable. He still has amazing talent, but much like in others sports, athletes in heavier weight classes have gotten bigger without compromising much on speed. The vast majority of his peers have embraced cutting edge diets, conditioning programs, diversifying their training styles and partners, etc. The Last Emperor kept his training routine intact. Why change what ain’t broken?

That can hold true for any machine, as long as the latest model doesn’t clearly outperform it. No amount of Stakhanovism on the part of Fedor could have prevented this.

How he chose to meet this challenge gives us great insight as to who the legend really is. He is a gifted fighter with amazing speed that resists change, even after clear shortcomings in recent bouts that he ended up winning (Arlovski and Rogers). Safe to assume he prefers Dostoyevsky over Turgenev.   

If logic prevails, Fedor pulls out a UD that puts him squarely outside the frame holding the title picture. Empires come and go, but before they vanish, they shrink substantially. Fedor’s stock has taken a serious beating in the past year, and this bout’s outcome will only serve to hold a price destined for a subsequent decline.

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Lines by Betus.com