MLB Trade Speculation: Is It Time for Seattle Mariners to Trade Michael Pineda?

The idea of the Seattle Mariners trading their prized 22-year-old, Michael Pineda, seems a little crazy, but sometimes during times of crisis (read, 15-game losing streak), crazy things need to happen.

Realize that I'm not condoning a trade, or even saying a rumor is in the works, because those are far from the truth. I'm just exploring the possible pros and cons of such a trade, and in fact, the Mariners are already on record in saying that Pineda is absolutely off-limits. 

This is all hypothetical. 

Where to start on an argument about trading a 22-year-old with a sub-4.00 ERA, sub-1.10 WHIP and is a very good bet for American League Rookie of the Year?

How about starting with arm strength? That's usually pretty important with pitchers.

A few weeks ago, I wrote an article about the hardest throwing 22-year-old rookies of the past 10 years, and with a fastball that averages 95 miles per hour, Pineda topped the list.

Considering that same list included names like Mark Prior, Francisco Liriano and Brett Anderson, it becomes a little unnerving to continually watch Pineda throw heat at such a young age.

But you still have to consider, is a Francisco Liriano situation more common? Or is someone like Clayton Kershaw, who's been throwing hard for almost four years now and continues to get better, the more likely trend?

Everyone's different, so it can sometimes be hard to tell, but even with the successful pitchers on that list, they've lost some velocity and had to develop secondary pitches.

Nonetheless, having a fire-throwing 22-year-old isn't always a safe bet for the future.

Major league arms tire. It's a fact, and until the bionic man is created, it's going to keep happening. Starting pitchers, especially hard throwing ones, are the most fragile position in the majors.

But hey, Michael Pineda is pretty, well, large, for a starting pitcher, and maybe he'll hold up. Or maybe he won't. That's the point.

If the Mariners did decide they wanted to trade Pineda, they can rest assured their pitching staff won't drop off as far as other teams' would.

Felix Hernandez, Doug Fister, Jason Vargas are all major leaguers, right now. Obviously. Then you have Blake Beavan, who has put together four good starts. He seems to be a nice back-end starter, and he's no longer doing you any favors in Tacoma.

So, you have an ace in Felix Hernandez, an injury-prone-but-potentially-dominant guy in Erik Bedard, and three non-flashy, but serviceable, 3.50-4.00 ERA-type guys. If the Mariners improved their hitting (a big if, clearly), that rotation would be fine, especially pitching half its games in Safeco.

Add in Taijuan Walker and James Paxton, who both have nasty stuff and, at this rate, are on a fast-track to the majors. Danny Hultzen is possibly the most major league ready out of any of this year's draftees. 22-year-old Forrest Snow had a nice debut in Tacoma yesterday. Recently-signed Victor Sanchez is 16 years old and can hit 94 on the radar.

That's some future right there.

What exactly would Pineda bring in return is another big question that has to be answered, because if it's not a big haul, it's not worth it.

The Cincinnati Reds have a slew of hitting prospects. A package of catcher Devin Mesoraco, left fielder Yonder Alonso, shortstop Zack Cozart and possibly one or two Single-A hitters would certainly be enticing.

Those three names are all hitting Triple-A pitching very well, and should be major league ready by next year, if not this year.

Now, you still have to remember, would the Mariners even be able to get all those guys with just Pineda?

Well, he's 22, he's developing into one of the top pitchers in the game, he's under team control until 2016 or '17 (so long I can't even do the math) and he's cheap (money-wise). Add in the fact that the amount of top available starters right now is very low, and yeah, I think they could get that deal done.

In fact, I think Pineda could command a bigger price than Colorado is currently seeking for Ubaldo Jimenez.

So, where does this put Seattle?

In one year, they'll likely have a huge upgrade at shortstop, left field and catcher. With Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, Ichiro and Franklin Gutierrez still in town, the M's all of a sudden have legitimate starters at seven positions by the start of 2012.

With that lineup, and the pitching staff mentioned earlier, a run at the playoffs and regenerated fan interest could come by next year.

Add Paxton and Walker to the mix by 2013, and you've got a potential World Series contender.

It's exactly how the San Francisco Giants won the world series last year. Once Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and other young guys made their way out of the minors, they only need a few key role players to complete the puzzle.  

It's risky, yeah, but I'm confident in Jack Zduriencik's judge of talent should he cook up a deal. 

I know Mariner fans feel like every year they are forced to look to the future, and nothing ever happens, but, as crazy as it sounds, a right deal for Michael Pineda could easily speed up the process.