A System for Judging the BCS Beauty Contest

Lou VozzaNov 2, 2008

As my regular readers know, I have developed a unique strength of schedule ranking. It is point-based and primarily quantitative, but it does have minor subjective elements.

The purpose of the system is to break ties between teams with similar records. It is to be used at the end of the year to decide which two teams are most deserving to play in the National Championship game.

In other words, it's going to be the judge of the beauty contest.

At the bottom of the post, you can find an explanation of how the points are tabulated and a link to a full description of the system with examples. Below that, I've posted the complete details of how the points for each team were awarded.

If anyone has any criticisms or suggestions to improve the system, please leave a comment. It is a work in progress.

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Point Standings After Week 10

Undefeated teams

Alabama.............11
Texas Tech..........5
Penn State...........5
Boise State..........1
Utah...................0

One-loss teams

Texas.................6.5
Florida................6.5
Oklahoma State....6
USC...................1
Oklahoma............1.5

Remember, it's still early. Most of these teams have at least one game left against ranked teams, so there will be plenty of movement before the end of the season.

But to understand how this is supposed to work, let's imagine the season ended today.

As far as I'm concerned, I'm picking between the top three undefeated teams to play in the NC game. I'm ruling out the top three one-loss teams, Texas, Florida, and Oklahoma State, even though they have marginal point leads over Tech and PSU.

Tradition says the champion should be undefeated. I'm going with that. One-loss teams, you're out. Don't like it? You shouldn't have lost.

I will only allow a one-loss team in over an undefeated team if they have a substantial lead in points. For example, Boise State and Utah don't have enough points. If they were the only undefeated teams, I would pass them over and decide between the high point one-loss teams.

The current undefeated teams, Alabama, Penn State, and Texas Tech, have enough points to prove that their schedule contained enough quality wins to justify playing for the NC.

Now, how do I choose which two teams play for the title? Alabama has a huge lead, but they have a problem. At the end of the season, I look back and decide if any of a team's points were earned against a team that was clearly over or under-ranked at the time they played.

Alabama got four points by beating Clemson, who was ranked ninth when they played in Week One. I am going to have to deduct points from Alabama, because Clemson has looked terrible all year. In fact, Clemson's been so bad, I'm taking all four points away from Alabama.

That still leaves them with seven, though, which is two points more than Tech and Penn State. Alabama's in.

Now I have to choose between Texas Tech and Penn State, who are tied at five points each. This is a tough call, but I'm taking Penn State. My tiebreaker is that in Tech's biggest win, they needed a miracle last-minute drive to beat Texas.

Meanwhile, although Penn State's big win over OSU was close, the Lions' defense closed the door convincingly when they had to at the end of the game.

So, my system says if the season ended today, Penn State and Alabama would win the beauty contest. Sorry Texas Tech—if you had stuffed Texas on that last critical Longhorn drive, I would have chosen you.

I know many of you, especially Texas Tech fans, would prefer to see a playoff to see this "settled on the field" rather than someone making an arcane judgment on what basically came down to two drives in the season.

Unfortunately, allowing Penn State and Texas Tech to play off would start a chain reaction that would lead inevitably to at least a 24-team playoff, which I'm against.

Watch my blog. I will be posting a full discussion of this issue soon.

For now, I would just like to point out that my system judges the teams solely by the quality of their wins and the quality of their losses. It doesn't care how hot they are playing right now, how much they won their last game by, how good a Samaritan Tim Tebow is, or what city USC plays in.

There is some subjectivity in the awarding of style points, but this is only added to reflect margin of victory.

Also, since the quality of wins and losses is based on the team's rankings in the polls, some indirect bias does creep in. But I believe that over the course of an entire season, this evens out and only has a small effect on the overall result.

Overranked/Underranked Watch

Clemson

I already explained how I would strip Alabama of its Clemson points if the season ended today. But the season's not over. Clemson has a lot of talent on their team—otherwise they wouldn't have been ranked ninth preseason.

If they run the table, beating FSU, Duke, Virginia, and South Carolina, they will end 8-4 and might even crawl back into the top 25. Stranger things have happened. Alabama could still end up with some points from that early game.

Illinois

This is another team that is underperforming badly relative to preseason expectations. I am tracking them because Penn State got a point for beating Illinois. They're 5-4 right now, and their record is only that good because they barely beat Iowa on Saturday.

Missouri

Oklahoma State got six big ones for beating No. 3 Missouri on the road. I'm not so concerned that Missouri subsequently lost to Texas. However, I am raising an eyebrow at their near loss to Baylor Saturday. If Missouri's season implodes, the Cowboys could lose points at the end.

Ole Miss

The Rebels are the only team on my radar for being underrated. Florida's loss to Ole Miss cost them five points. Even though they are only 5-4, they have looked very strong in every loss, and every loss has been a squeaker. If they win out and beat LSU on the road Nov. 22, I may have to give some points back to Florida.

How Points Are Awarded

3 points for a win against a team ranked 1-8
2 points for a win against a team ranked 8-16
1 point for a win against a team ranked 16-25

-3 points for a loss to an unranked team
-2 points for a loss to a team ranked 10-25
-1 point for a loss to a team ranked 1-10

Points are doubled for losses at home and wins on the road.

50 percent adjustment for wins and losses at neutral sites.

A single discretionary "style" point can be deducted or added depending on margin of victory.

Also, awarded points can be adjusted at the end of the season depending on whether or not opponent ends up being perceived as clearly overrated or underrated at time of play.

See a full explanation of system with examples here.