College Football 2011: Power Ranking the Big 12's Bowl Chances

Conference realignment hit the Big 12 hard. Colorado has gone to the new Pac-12 and Nebraska gave the Big 10 12 teams. Texas on the other hand fell flat on their faces with Garret Gilbert under center, but not before defeating Nebraska in the Sea of Red in one of the Huskers' most anticipated games in recent history. And to top it all off, Oklahoma didn't lose to an inferior team in the Fiesta Bowl.

Needless to say it was a bizarre season. Will 2011 bring a bit more stability to the league or can we expect Iowa State to beat Texas on the road again?

While the outcomes of individual games are unpredictable—I would know seeing as I'm a Virginia Tech fan—and injuries can change everything about a team, the overall outcome of a season can typically come down a couple games.

So which Big 12 teams will make bowls? Who will go where? All of those answers are in the following slides.

10. Kansas

The worst team in the Big 12 doesn’t look to improve much in 2011.

No proven quarterback? Check. No semblance of a run game? Check. Offensive line allowing more than three sacks per game? Check. Top wide receiver have under 500 yards? Check.

Freshman RB Darrian Miller has turned some heads but he’s...wait for it...a freshman.

How about defense?

Barely averaging a sack per game? Check. Return talent to an awful unit? Check—that awful unit is the secondary where the Jayhawks had seven interceptions in the whole season. Jayron Hosley of Virginia Tech had two more interceptions than an entire team in the Big 12.

The linebackers will be a solid group led by leading tackler Steven Johnson. And their special teams replace both kickers and return some of the worst coverage units in the country.

Hopes were high for new coach Turner Gill and he could not have flopped harder. Sure it was his first season and he had highlights against Georgia Tech and Colorado. But until Kansas can put real talent on the field or run a scheme like Texas Tech’s to put up points on the board, something’s gotta give in order for the Jayhawks to get more than three wins in 2011.

9. Iowa State

Iowa State was able to pull off the upset in 2010 against Texas and almost went to a bowl but lost by one in overtime to Nebraska. Don’t expect anything similar from the Cyclones in 2011. Austen Arnaud is gone and with him almost all hope of reaching a bowl. There’s really no proven offensive talent on the team outside of OT Kelechi Osemele.

Defensively the Cyclones have two outstanding linebackers in Jake Knot and AJ Klein, but an almost nonexistent defensive line allowed over 185 yards per game. The cornerbacks are experienced but the chances of them doing damage against the wide receivers of the Big 12 are slim, especially when they average less than a sack per game.

Their game against Connecticut should be hotly contested and if Iowa State can grab a win there, maybe there’s a chance for a bowl, especially if another team overlooks the Cyclones like they did in 2010.

Still, the odds are strong that this team will be home for the holidays.

8. Kansas State

The Wildcats have to replace their best passer, rusher, two best receivers and three linemen on offense. This transfer-heavy team will rely on RB Bryce Brown, the top prospect from 2009 who transferred from Tennessee, WR Chris Harper, transfer from Oregon, and possibly QB Justin Tuggle, transfer from Boston College, who may beat out run-happy Collin Klein for the starting job.

Defensively the Wildcats start and end with their putrid rush defense, ranked second to last in the country last season. Miami transfer and brother of Bryce Brown, Arthur, will hopefully bring some needed leadership and tenacity. Safety is the lone bright spot on this defense with All-Big 12 Ty Zimmerman. The line is largely unproven and will also be relying on transfers to pressure the quarterback.

This team is really a year away from doing anything substantial. If they don’t have five wins by the end of October, a bowl is really out of the question for the Wildcats. A five-win season should be considered great progress.

Their season finale against Iowa State will either be a display of their progress or proof that a team of transfers won’t make the cut in the BCS.

7. Texas Tech

Texas Tech comes in next because of a lack of talent at the skill positions. The Red Raiders go from two quarterbacks to none but the entirety of the offensive line returns to ease the transition. The quarterback, whoever that may be, should have plenty of time to throw the ball. To whom is a very valid question. Who will run the ball is also an excellent question.

No one has pulled away in the quarterback race seeing as apparent frontrunner Seth Doege couldn’t muster better than 17-of-26, three TDs and an interception against his own atrocious defense in his best scrimmage. That defense does return its entire secondary but that unit ranked 118th in yards allowed and 79th in pass efficiency.

But there is hope and his name is defensive coordinator Chad Glasglow who was at TCU for the past 10 years. How much magic he can work in one offseason is anyone’s guess but it will go a long way in determining if this team will reach a bowl.

It will be close but a winner-goes-to-bowl season finale will go to...

6. Baylor

Baylor! The Bears will have the most underrated offense in the Big 12.

Baylor got back into a bowl for the first time in 15 years, the next step will be to win one and with Robert Griffin and new, stud defensive coordinator in Phil Bennett, winning a bowl is more than doable.

Considering the last time Baylor went to back-to-back bowls was 1991-92, that’s a feat within itself.

To help Griffin are four returning linemen as well as his top three receivers including Kendall Wright who almost broke the thousand yard mark last season, albeit in very quiet fashion.

Running back is the primary concern, where someone will need to replace Jay Finley. At the moment there’s no star, so a committee of backs is the likely course of action.

The defense will simply have to get pressure on quarterbacks in order to compensate for a lack of talent in the defensive backfield. They’ll also need to replace mammoth, first round tackle Phil Taylor. None of this bodes well for a unit ranked 104th in total defense in 2010.

In order to make it back to a bowl, Baylor will need to beat every team they should beat which includes Texas Tech. Lose one and they’ll have to pull a serious upset, the most likely candidates being at home against Missouri or Texas or against an emotionally drained Oklahoma State on the road.

The Meineke Car Care Bowl is the perfect location for the in-state Bears.

5. Texas

Texas gets the fifth spot because they recruit with the best in the country and have the best linebackers in the conference.

A stagnant 2010 offense can really only go up from the 88th best scoring offense in the country with so much talent at the skill positions. But the lack of a proven quarterback and only two returning linemen will make this revamping no cakewalk.

The defense wasn’t an issue last year but the run defense will improve with Emmanuel Acho, Keenan Robinson and high school Butkus Award winner Jordan Hicks starting at linebacker. They’ll need to step up because after Kheeston Randall, there aren’t any proven defensive tackles. Both safeties return while both corners are gone, but that shouldn’t be much of a concern—there’s always a corner in Austin.

In order for the Longhorns to compete in the Big 12 they will have to put up more points than the loaded offenses of the other teams in the conference. Bryan Harsin will need to pull something out of his bag which he was known to do at Boise State.

If he can outwit opposing coordinators with his “numbers, leverage and grass” philosophy, Texas will skyrocket up the ranks.

Still, under pressure, Gilbert or whoever will be the quarterback is unlikely to rise above it all which will cost them at least one game. But a rough road schedule puts Texas’ best season at two losses.

Cotton Bowl is the highest the Longhorns will go but the Insight or Holiday Bowl will likely snatch them up for ticket sales.

4. Oklahoma State

The Cowboys will easily have one of the best offenses in the entire country. Every lineman, every receiver and their quarterback. The only offensive question mark is Joseph Randle at running back but fans from Stillwater know that won’t be too much of an issue. One of the top recruits for OSU in 2010, Randle averaged 5.5 yards per carry, backing up Kendall Hunter. And there's some guy named Justin and his last name isn't Beiber.

All of the questions facing Oklahoma State are on defense. A much improved unit in 2010 will face a serious overhaul in 2011, especially in the front seven. Expect teams with great running backs to use and abuse that unit. But the secondary got lit up for a lot of yards last season and will need to get their act together to come close to stopping the returning talent at Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Missouri.

The other very major concern is offensive coordinator. Dana Holgorsen is now the head coach at West Virginia and Todd Monken leaves a lot of fans nervous that despite all of the talent, the yards won’t come. Assuming they do, the defense will dictate how far this team can go. They won’t be ready for Texas A&M on the road but have very real chances against Missouri and Oklahoma.

If they don't, there should be enough talent to reach a bowl but with hype at a high, that simply won't cut it for the Cowboys' die-hard fans.

A BCS appearance could happen and it would make a lot of people happy. A return trip to the Alamo Bowl is more likely, though.

3. Missouri

There is quite a buzz going around about quarterback James Franklin. And assuming that buzz has any truth to it, expect the Tigers to light up the scoreboard. I’ve seen his film and those rumors have a lot of truth to them. A lot.

The Mizzou spread has every single receiver returning and four of their linemen. With Franklin’s running abilities, a QB spy will be necessary to keep his 4.6 speed under control, thus freeing up TJ Moe and Michael Egnew. Keeping opposing defenses honest like this is imperative for the Tigers’ success.

Defensively, there won’t be many teams running on against Missouri. Quarterbacks should also get rid of the ball quickly against stud ends Jacquies Smith and Brad Madison. Quick passing is clearly the way to go against this team as they have to break in two cornerbacks and a safety.

Gary Pinkel has turned the Tigers into a contender in every facet of the game. Winning on the road will be the next step. Arizona State, Oklahoma and Texas A&M are going to be rough and stopping Justin Blackmon could present a serious problem.

But Mizzou gets a nod at three because of the simply filthy defense that exploded onto the scene last season. I’ll put my money on a pass defense that ranked 11th in the country in passing efficiency even though they have to replace starters.

If their line can stop A&M on the road, this team could get to the Fiesta Bowl but a Cotton Bowl appearance is more likely.

2. Texas A&M

A midseason change in quarterback and philosophy seemed to catapult a wilting Texas A&M team back into Big 12 relevance. But a thrashing by LSU in the Cotton Bowl has dimmed the expectations for this team returning their entire offense minus a safety as well as the majority of a defense that was spectacular.

Consider the hype back. The Aggies could have the most balanced offense in the Big 12 with Tannehill, Cyrus Gray, Christine Michael and Jeff Fuller all returning. Gray is definitely the most established back in the conference and Michael provides much needed rest.

However, there are some serious concerns on defense despite returning eight starters. Von Miller was a great player but he won’t be anchoring the linebackers anymore. Three of the front seven are gone while all of the secondary remains intact. Whether or not the Wrecking Crew can stop the run will go a long way in determining the success of this team. But there are only a few teams with legitimate running threats which bodes well for a great bowl game.

The other major plus for A&M is a really favorable home schedule at the menacing Kyle Field. Barring a total defensive collapse or injury ridden season, the Aggies will be a force to be reckoned with in every game they play.

Gray will run over Oklahoma State, Missouri doesn’t play well on the road and Texas needs to get to a bowl before anyone projects an upset.

An at-large Fiesta Bowl is the most likely destination with the lowest an Alamo Bowl appearance and highest a spot in the national title if they can win at Oklahoma and beat Arkansas.

1. Oklahoma

The Sooners will be as close to a unanimous number one pick since USC in 2005. They return a disgusting amount of talent including Ryan Broyles, Landry Jones and Travis Lewis as well as 14 other returning starters.

And none of this accounts for the top notch recruiting classes that come in every year like clockwork.

The only place of real concern is in the secondary where cornerbacks Demontre Hurst and Jamell Fleming, who was just reinstated after academic issues, are the only returners. A confident leader will have to emerge at safety.

Luckily, the typically pass-happy Big 12 will be breaking in a lot of new quarterbacks. Two of the teams who don’t have that problem, Baylor and Oklahoma State, are the final two games of the season. Missouri breaks in hyped quarterback James Franklin but the game is on the road where OU hasn’t lost in a very, very long time—the 2005 opener to be exact.

That's not good if you're a Texas A&M fan.

Dominating home games as well as demolishing OSU since forever puts the Sooners in a great spot to go undefeated. It’s just a game at the equally tough Doak Walker Stadium versus an equally balanced Florida State in week two that could trip up Oklahoma.

But even if that is the case, the absolute worst case is a Cotton Bowl appearance with a likely spot in the national title.

If that doesn’t top a power ranking of bowl chances, I don’t know what will.