Packers-Titans Preview, Packers' Roster Moves

Much like Tony Romo almost a year ago to the day, the Packers decided to sew up the quarterback position long-term Friday before his current contract ran out.

In fact, even the contract itself bears remarkable similarities. Reports are that it is in the same range, just over $11 million per year, beginning after the 2009 season when Rodgers' current contract expires.

This is why the Packers let Brett Favre go. With him on the roster, Rodgers would not have re-signed, unsure of when (or if) he would get a chance to start. Even if Rodgers was still on the roster once Favre retired for good, management would have lost its bargaining leverage with his contract expiring.

In another move, the Packers activated 2007 first-round draft pick (and so far, draft bust) Justin Harrell from the physically unable to perform list, and released Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila to make room for him. This divorce was handled with class by both sides which is more evidence of Favre's role in his nasty departure. The following is a quote directly from the Packers website:

"We want to thank Kabeer for his contributions to the Green Bay Packers," Thompson said. "During his time here, he has been a big part of our organization and our community. We wish Kabeer and his family well."

In leaving the organization, Gbaja-Biamila issued the following statement:

"My nine years as a Green Bay Packer have been a blessing that is beyond words. I thank God for bringing me to this first-class organization and first-class community.

During my time here, I've built relationships with a number of people in the Packer family. The front office executives, G.M.s, coaches, past and present players, the enormous support, and administrative staff plus the greatest fans in football, all have helped make my time here truly special and I am thankful for that.

"It has been a very positive experience. I was able to build a family here and grow with a community that I call home. Again, I've been truly blessed. I don't know what my football future holds, but one thing I've realized is that football is more than a game. It's about building relationships and changing lives.

"One of the commitments I've had throughout my career has been to share the gospel of Jesus Christ and that is something that I intend on doing whether on the field or not. God bless the Green Bay Packers!"

Now for the upcoming match-up with the unbeaten Tennessee Titans.

The teams have two games in common: both hosted the Indianapolis Colts and the Minnesota Vikings, winning both games. The Packers have a slight edge (+2 pts.) in combined margin of victory, 58-33 vs. 61-38.

Outside of those games, the Packers have played a slightly more difficult schedule. Excluding the games in which the Packers played, their opponents are 19-25 (.432); the Titans' opponents are 17-26 (.395) in the games played against the rest of the league.

The clearest edge the Titans have is in margin of victory. The Packers have scored an average of 27.7 (ranked fifth in the NFL) and given up 22.7 (16th), a difference of +5 points per game. The Titans have scored 25.7 (ninth) and given up 12.4 (best in the league), a whopping difference of 12.3 points per game.

In terms of yardage production, the Packers average 323.9 per game on offense (16th), with 227.9 passing (10th) and 101 rushing (24th). The Titans have generated 309.7 (23rd) yards per game, with 164.7 passing (28th) and 145 rushing (fourth).

Defensively, the Packers allow an average of 327.9 yards per game (17th), 186 of which is through the air (sixth) and 141.9 of which is on the ground (25th). The Titans allow 275.4 per game (fourth), 185.3 of which is in the air (fourth) and 90.1 of which is on the ground (tenth).

Thus, the Packers have the fifth-ranked offense going against the best defense, the tenth-ranked passing attack going against the fourth-ranked pass defense, and the ninth-worst rushing attack going against the tenth-best rush defense.

It should be noted that the Titans pass defense is all the more impressive when you consider teams have had to pass against them; likewise, their run defense is not as stout as advertised. Nevertheless, when the Packers offense is on the field, there is a slight advantage to the Titans.

When the Titans offense is on the field, I do not see either team as having a clear advantage. However, don't expect them to pass much. Their passing attack has been used less often because of the leads the Titans have built, but is still not a strength; the Packers pass defense is.

Meanwhile, the Titans have an excellent rushing attack and the Packers a suspect rush defense. Green Bay will likely load up to stop the run, but I still expect the Titans to have more success running than passing.

On special teams, the Titans have mediocre return and coverage units; the Packers are above average in both. Both teams have pretty good kicking games, with perhaps a slight edge to the Titans' punting. In other words, special teams provide a minimal edge to the Packers.

Therefore, on paper this game seems much closer than I had anticipated. Looking beneath the surface, some of the Packers' statistics were accumulated before their rash of injuries had piled up. On the other hand, there also were stats accumulated before the young players filling in had some experience under their belts, and the team is starting to get healthy again.

Those factors are therefore a wash, so the Titans maintain a minimal edge in the match-ups and they also have the homefield advantage. In terms of other intangibles, the Titans are due for a loss and someone will upset them since they are likely to be favored in any game they play.

To be the team to accomplish this feat, the Packers will need big plays early out of the passing game to play with a lead so that the Titans cannot simply run out the clock against what would be a tired Packers' defense by the fourth quarter.

In the end, I do not believe they will get enough of them against a very good Titans' pass defense and predict they will fall short, 27-21.