Fantasy Football: Week Nine Preview, Part Two

I'm not a big Halloween guy. Never really have been. That said, this is the first time since I was in college that the holiday falls on a Friday. Am I dressing up? Am I going to a party? You bet. I have no problem putting on a costume. For those of you that read some of these posts during baseball season, I am not going as Dana Eveland, contrary to popular belief.  

Alright, we have that covered. Let's get to the late games!

Miami at Denver

Who to Start: Chad Pennington, Ricky Williams, Ted Ginn, Greg Camarillo, Michael Pittman,

Who to Sit: Anthony Fasano, David Martin

What to Expect: As you can tell, we think that there could be some offense involved in this one.

Miami has been better against the run than they have against the pass. The secondary is still beatable, and you have to think that's where the Broncos will try to take advantage of the situation.

Cutler is coming off a bye, where he had plenty of time to study how teams are beating Miami. That in mind, big days are in order for both Marshall and Royal. Keep them active for certain.

Denver has the ability to adapt should things change. While I'll likely regret this on Monday, starting Pittman as a flex play wouldn't be a bad option. Pittman should be good for 70 total yards and a score. He knows he has to play this week, or else he'll end up in that fun platoon that we all hate Shanahan for.

To beat Denver, you run the football. Plain and simple. So why advocate playing Chad Pennington and Ted Ginn? Because the past several weeks has seen an uptick in the number of times Pennington has dropped back to pass. He put up 295 yards in a loss to the Ravens and over 300 in a win last week against Buffalo.

Ride the hot hand here. Pennington throws for two, but puts up 275 yards to help his cause. Look for Ginn and Camarillo to be the recipients.

Ronnie Brown is a must-start against the Broncos. His running mate, Ricky Williams, is a sneaky flex play for teams that need the help in a bye week. Even secondary options have done well against AFC West run defenses.

Sleeper Pickup: Ricky Williams. Just for the reasons stated above. 65 yards and a touchdown here.

Atlanta at Oakland

Who to Start: Justin Fargas, Zach Miller, Matt Ryan, Javon Walker
 
Who to Sit: JaMarcus Russell, Ronald Curry
 
What to Expect: Expect a lot of ground attacks to start the game, as neither team ranks in the top-20 against the run.

I like Justin Fargas in this one, strictly because his quarterback is Russell. With McFadden having missed practice again this week (at least on Wednesday), Fargas remains the best and most healthy option for the Raiders' offense. 

Without McFadden, he likely gets 20 carries. With him, let's take it down to 15. Regardless, he's a borderline RB2 play but is certainly a flex option for those in need.

Through the air, the only option I trust for certain is Miller, as he is constantly targeted. Those number have dipped the past couple weeks, but he is still a viable threat. Atlanta has struggled defending tight ends this year, making Miller a top-10 play this week. Walker likely grabs enough yards to be in the mix, but he's a fringe play at best.

It will be Michael Turner all day long for the Falcons. He's one of my favorite plays this week, hands down.

Matt Ryan won't be bad, either. Roddy White will draw one of the better shutdown corners in football, but I don't think that will stop him from grabbing at least one touchdown pass from Ryan. No one has been able to stop the combination of the two. Ryan should be looked at more in deeper leagues where you need the sub. White is a must-start in every format.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Miller. The best of a bad bunch in Oakland.

Dallas at New York Giants

Who to Start: Steve Smith, Kevin Boss
 
Who to Sit: Brad Johnson, Eli Manning
 
What to Expect: Don't expect to find me on the Eli bandwagon this week. I'm done there.

Look, Eli hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards in three weeks and has just one touchdown in three of his last four outings. That's not going to cut it for me. He's faced poor secondaries in enough of those games as well. Dallas may be depleted there, but Manning hasn't shown he can beat anyone. Why would that change now? I don't think it will. Manning throws one touchdown, and it goes to Smith.

You likely have to start Burress if you own him, but if you have other options, I would look to use them. He's not responding to the team-imposed discipline and certainly doesn't seem dedicated to his routes at this point. Manning seems to be working just fine with Boss and Smith. Look for that to keep up here.

As for the running game, start Jacobs. I think that covers it there.

On the Dallas side, I'm avoiding as much of this disaster as I can until Romo comes back. I'd suggest you do as well. The only piece to this puzzle that any owner should feel obligated to start is Marion Barber. Whether it's Owens, Williams, or Witten, Brad Johnson isn't making any of them look good at this point.

Witten is practicing today with extra padding on his ribs. He's another player that you almost have to start, but there are some good options available on waivers. We detailed several on Wednesday.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Smith. He's getting more and more looks as Burress creates problems.

Philadelphia at Seattle

Who to Start: John Carlson, Hank Baskett, DeSean Jackson
 
Who to Sit: L.J. Smith, Correll Buckhalter, Seneca Wallace
 
What to Expect: With Seattle coming off a win, I wouldn't expect the Eagles to be coming in and overlooking them.

McNabb should be in for another solid game here. Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis are both in the lineup. While I'm not a huge fan of Brown this week, the added weapon makes McNabb that much more dangerous. 275 and a three touchdown day for the Eagles quarterback. I like Jackson and Baskett to get in on the action, with the third going to Westbrook.

Speaking of the running back, you obviously start him. He should be in for a two touchdown day as well.

On the Seattle side, I don't want to touch anyone on offense other than Carlson. The running backs share the ball too much, the receivers aren't healthy, and the quarterback isn't good. Beyond that, they should be in for a great day. Yes, they looked better against the 49ers, but I wouldn't want to base anything on their success against a poor team.

So why Carlson? Because you have to account for the amount of a rush that will be placed on Wallace. Without Hasselbeck, the Eagles will bring players up and make Wallace throw the ball. They love to blitz, meaning that Carlson will end up the outlet on most patterns. Should be a good day for him.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Baskett. I'm not yet sold on Brown's return. Baskett fills his role well.

New England at Indianapolis

Who to Start: Kevin Faulk, Wes Welker, Anthony Gonzalez
 
Who to Sit: Matt Cassel, BenJarvus Green-Ellis
 
What to Expect: I hate this matchup on both sides, not gonna lie to you there. As we look at it, the Colts should be looking to throw the ball, while New England should be focusing on the run.

Indianapolis looked better last week in the way they were able to move the ball on offense. Manning looked much more comfortable than he has in the past few weeks, and that was evident in the way he made his throws to Clark as much as anything else.

I like him to continue this positive trend, especially against a secondary that can be thrown on. Give Manning 280 and three. Wayne, Gonzalez, and Clark should all get in on the fun here.

I'm not a big fan of the running-game situation this week. Rhodes has done the bulk of the work, but it looks as if Addai will be back in the mix. While we just aren't sure who we're going to get and how much of that runner, we're taking a pass here. If you need to go with one, I still like Rhodes better this week, but relegating both to flex plays is your safest bet.

In New England, they'll look to do what Tennessee did last week and beat up the Colts on the ground. Indy has had more players on the injury list this week than practicing, so that could prove challenging. While we saw a lot of Green-Ellis last week, and Faulk was certainly the primary option in the run game. He'll be that way again. He's versatile, and the Pats will use him in every aspect of the game.

Cassel looked decent through the air against the Rams, but the Colts have a much better pass defense than you might think. It's also likely they get Bob Sanders back this week, and that will help both in run support and pass protection. They'll roll him over the top of Moss, forcing the underneath routes. It's why we like Welker this week. Welker works that underneath route better than almost anyone in football.

Moss has been slightly slowed by a foot injury this week. Nothing to bench him over, but something to pay attention to. Cassel likely throws for two and 210 yards. It's not something that excites me enough to play him here.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Faulk. He's being used like Tomlinson but doesn't have the same skill, obviously. Faulk could still total 100 total yards with a touchdown here.

Pittsburgh at Washington

Who to Start: Santonio Holmes, Willie Parker (if healthy), Santana Moss, Jeff Reed.
 
Who to Sit: Both quarterbacks, Antwaan Randle El
 
What to Expect: Expect a potentially sloppy and poorly-played offensive game. I don't find there's a whole lot to like here.

Roethlisberger looked miserable against a New York team that has seen guys have good days against them (yes, I know they're a top-10 team against the pass, but they have some bad weeks). Washington is much better against the pass and has the corners to play the Steelers receivers. They give up just one touchdown pass a game and have held opponents under 200 yards.

Big Ben likely is stuck south of 200, give him 185 and a touchdown. I think it goes to Ward, but the best upside of the day has to be Holmes. He may not grab a touchdown, but he could put up 90 receiving yards. In PPR leagues, he's got value this week.

The question for Pittsburgh will be their running game. Who gets the rock isn't known yet. If Parker is healthy, he will get all the touches. He went through a full practice on Thursday, so you could reasonably conclude he should be fine. Make him a flex play this week, and you should be rewarded with in-line results. Mewelde Moore is a risk play. Keep an eye on the situation here. He could still get the start. Tomlin isn't letting on yet.

Jason Campbell is going up against the toughest pass defense in the league. So yeah, I'd keep him on the bench. Campbell hasn't thrown a pick all year, but this is the type of game that could see that happen. The Steelers will be coming with some pressure. For that reason, I wouldn't start anyone outside of Chris Cooley and Moss here. It's too much of a reach based on what Pittsburgh usually gives up. 

You have to start Portis, that's just about all there is to it here.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Nate Washington. I still have a good feeling here. Went with him last week, and let's go with him again. If you need someone to fill shoes on the bye, this guy has upside. 

Enjoy the games!