Super Rugby: The Keys for Each Semifinalist to Win This Weekend

After 19 weeks, the Super Rugby semifinals are finally upon us. The remaining teams of the competition have unsurprisingly found their way into these final four spots, each following their own roads to the finals.

Both games promise to be hard fought encounters, with the open running of the Blues and Reds in the first game, and the uncompromising defence and hardness of the Stormers and Crusaders in the second.

We are left with a situation where any two of these four teams could potentially make it into the Final, provided they bring the right attitude and play to their strengths.

And that is key. The Blues and Reds especially have been known to be inconsistent in the way they play, as well as their commitment displayed during the game, although this has been a problem for the Blues more so than the Reds.

So, how does each team need to play this weekend? What must they do to ensure that they are the ones that will progress to the big dance next week?

The following slides outline the way I think these teams need to play to win this weekend.

The Reds

The Reds will take on the Blues in the first semifinal on Saturday night. They go into the game as the top qualifiers from the regular season, having lost just three games all season.

With a rest last week, they will be well refreshed and will not lack any energy come kickoff. 

Although the question still remains whether this is a good thing, as teams coming off the bye can often struggle in the next game, which is effectively the situation the Reds are in.

If the Reds are to win this weekend, it will be by playing the same way they have played all season, letting Will Genia and Quade Cooper run the show.

In these two they have the most dangerous 9-10 combination in the competition. Both are game breakers: Genia with his dangerous runs around the fringes and good decision making, and Cooper with his elusive running and good vision making him a nightmare for opposing defences.

But the thing that makes Cooper especially dangerous is that he isn't afraid to try things. While other players in the competition are capable of doing what Cooper does, none are as daring as Cooper and therefore don't pose the same threat.

Outside Cooper, the Reds have a very dangerous backline who have the ability to take the Reds into the Final.

But it is up front that will decide the Reds fate.

They have an above-average forward pack, but not great. Their loose forwards have impressed all year and will have a good battle with the Blues trio. Last time the teams met, the Reds got the upperhand in this department and was one of the main reasons they were so dominant.

Ultimately though, it will be the tight five that will determine if the Reds win or not. They will need to gain dominance up front to allow Genia and Cooper to get the ball they need to be dangerous.

Should they do this, they will win and should win comfortably. Should they fail to, they will struggle against an equally dangerous Blues team. 

The Blues

The Reds' opponents, the Blues, enter the semifinal encounter coming off a comfortable win over the Waratahs last weekend in Auckland.

They are the most difficult team to predict out of the four, given the way they blow hot and cold so often.

While they have been more consistent this year, an element of inconsistency crept into their game later in the season, and they must ensure that they don't let this hamper their performance this weekend.

The key to the Blues winning is for them to bring their physical game. When they do this, they are as good as anyone in the competition and would be a fair bet to comfortably beat a Reds side who won't be able to match them.

But the problem is, the Blues don't always bring their physical game.

This was best seen against the Crusaders in their first game of the season, where they got on top of arguably the best pack in the competition and ran out winners in one of the top performances of the season.

All Blacks hard man Jerome Kaino is key here and will be expected to lead from the front with his brutal defence. To surround him, the Blues have plenty of other All Black forwards who are playing well and should they be able to get on the front foot, it will be a long 80 minutes for the Reds on Saturday night.

Gaining this dominance up front, the next key to the Blues' performance will be how well Stephen Brett plays. On his best days, he is one of the most dangerous First-Five's in the world. But these performances come too inconsistently. 

Assuming Brett and his forwards do play well, the Blues should have no problem with some of the most dangerous backs in the world outside them. Should they be given good ball, the Reds won't stop them.

And that just sums up the Blues' chances.

If they bring their physical game, they should win, if they don't they will lose. Simple as that.

The Stormers

In the second semifinal of the weekend the Stormers take on the Crusaders in Cape Town.

This game promises to be a much tighter, physical encounter than that of the Blues-Reds. It is also much harder to predict, as both teams have different things in their favour, which will make for a cracking game.

Much like 2010, the 2011 Stormers have become renowned for being the toughest team defensively in the competition and have been brutal up front.

On paper they have an excellent backline, but haven't always been able to translate this onto the field. Still, they have shown they are very capable.

And it would be a surprise to see the Stormers stray too far from this. They will look to smash the Crusaders up front and will rely on not letting them score points, as opposed to scoring a large number themselves to see them through.

The set piece will be crucial, and while I would give the Crusaders the edge at this stage, the Stormers are capable of getting the better of them. If they can do this, it will go a long way towards winning the game.

Their loose forwards have been very good with Francois Louw being the pick of them, impressing with his ability at the breakdown. It will require a massive effort from these three men this weekend though, as they go up against the best loose forward trio in the competition.

In the backs, the key will be to shut down the Crusaders. They are dangerous all over the park and are capable of scoring plenty of tries.

The Stormers are the best defensive team in the competition and if anyone is going to shut down the Crusaders, it will be them. How well they do this could determine the outcome of the game.

On attack they should be fine as long as they are tidy, and Peter Grant is accurate in his goal kicking. Although if Jacque Fourie, Jean De Villiers, Bryan Habana, Gio Aplon, or any of their other backs could show how dangerous they can be, the Crusaders may find themselves with a few extra problems.

The other thing on the Stormers' side is that they have home ground advantage. This is crucial. Only one team has ever gone to South Africa and won a playoff match, that being the 1999 Highlanders. 

To sum up, if the Stormers are to win this weekend, their best bet is to keep doing what they've been doing. They've been consistent all year so it's a good bet they will do just this.

Whether it sees them through will depend on how good the Crusaders are.

The Crusaders

2011 has been a truly remarkable season for the Crusaders. After the Christchurch February Earthquake, they were left shaken and without a home. 

This has caused them to effectively play every game on the road. And despite this they have still been able to play some top rugby and yet again find themselves in the top four.

They are a quality team all over the park and don't really have any weaknesses.

However, there are areas where they will need to target if they are to beat the Stormers. It can be assumed that the Stormers will play a similar game to the one they've played all year, so the Crusaders will know exactly what they have to do to win.

It is almost certain that the Stormers will be physical up front and look to smash the Crusaders' forwards, as was mentioned earlier. Therefore, the Crusaders must match this and be just as brutal, as they were when they triumphed in Cape Town earlier in the season.

If they can gain dominance in the rucks and on defence in the early stages of the game, they will be able to rattle the Stormers, who will have a hard time getting back into the game.

They boast the best loose forward trio in the competition and should they gain dominance at the breakdown, they will be able to make this count.  

The Crusaders have the best scrum in the competition and will need to make this count if they are to get the ball to their dangerous backs.

In saying this, the Stormers have shown that they are capable of winning without the ball. It will largely depend on how well the Crusaders' backs play as to how important this will be.

The midfield, in particular, will be crucial. The 9-10 combination of Andy Ellis and Dan Carter will be good. Carter in particular will be influential, that goes without saying. The midfield is more erratic.

Sonny Bill Williams is potentially the most dangerous player in the competition; he is dangerous running, while also has the ability to create for others with his signature offload, which at times is undefendable.

But whether he brings this game is another thing. In the big games he has tended to go into a shell and look to distribute rather than create. 

Likewise, Robbie Fruean has shown himself to have a ton of potential, but hasn't fired at all during the second half of the competition. He is dangerous running off Williams, and should they combine in the right way, they will be a handful for the Stormers.

Zac Guildford and Sean Maitland are both try-scoring machines, and both need to ensure they are involved in the game to make their presence felt.

Should all this fall into place, they will be tough to stop. And don't be surprised if it does—the Crusaders are masters of playing good finals rugby.

However, it isn't quite that simple.

Don't forget the Crusaders will be playing in Cape Town, in front of a vocal Stormers home crowd. South Africa has proven to be the hardest destination for New Zealand and Australian teams to win in this competition over the years, and this game will be no different. As mentioned earlier, only one team has ever travelled to South Africa and won a finals match.

But the other thing to remember is that this Crusaders team is used to playing away from home. They have played every game away from their home in Christchurch this year, and while it will still be a tough assignment, the home ground advantage won't be as important against the 2011 Crusaders. Also, the Crusaders have already beaten the Stormers in Cape Town this year, which will give them a psychological boost.

They are the team with huge spirit and physicality up front, coupled with an in-sync backline that should be enough to see them home. If their backs don't fire, they could still win. But it will be left much more up to chance as they will find scoring points that much harder, particularly against the Stormers.

It's still a big task, but if any team could go to South Africa and put all of this together when it matters, it is this Crusaders team.