Fantasy Football: Week Nine Preview, Part One

After the abundance of games that took place in the early slot last week, this week's numbers are back to normal. That puts more balance in the schedule, and allows for fantasy owners to not have their entire day ruined by 4:15 PM, when the early games are all over. It's always better to prolong defeats as much as possible. Let's get to it.

New York Jets at Buffalo

Who to Start: Trent Edwards, Robert Royal, Jerricho Cotchery

Who to Sit: Marshawn Lynch, Brett Favre

What to Expect: AFC East matchups, especially between two teams that don't like each other, tend to yield more defense than offense.

Lynch is down here as a sit, but only if you have better options. With so many teams on bye this week, that might not be the case. Just keep in mind that the Jets give up just 82 yards per game on the ground, and Lynch hasn't been good for a 100-yard game yet this season.

The Bills are committed to running the football with him, and he continues to get the goal-line carries, but this is a tough defense to run against.

Trent Edwards should be in for an easier day than he had last week. The Jets are susceptible to the play-action pass, and that's what Kansas City used against them last week. If they can establish Lynch early, Edwards will be free to find Royal and Evans in the end zone. Edwards should have three touchdown tosses to go with 260 yards.

Brett Favre is feast or famine. Half of his throws last week looked like he had no clue as to what was going on in the Jets offense at all. He lucked into that win, and I wouldn't want to start him against any defense, let alone on the road for this one. He probably finds Cotchery for a touchdown, but he could easily throw another three picks. Too much risk for me here. His receivers are both solid starts, though.

Jones was second fiddle to Washington last week, but that's not always going to be the case. He has value, and should crack 90 yards with a score. Keep him active. Washington is the wild card in the equation. Don't look for him to duplicate the total yards he put up last week, but expect him to be used often in the offense. As said before, if your league counts return yards, Washington still makes a solid flex play.

Sleeper Pickup: Leon Washington. He seems to find a way to score every week, and I think he will this week as well.

Detroit at Chicago

Who to Start: Kyle Orton, Rashied Davis, Devin Hester (if healthy), Greg Olsen, Calvin Johnson
 
Who to Sit: Rudi Johnson, Kevin Smith
 
What to Expect: We've learned that Detroit is bad and cannot defend the pass.

Kyle Orton should be able to step back and torch this defense for some major yards and touchdowns. If he doesn't crack 275 yards, I'll be surprised. It's just that bad of a secondary. Rashied Davis, Olsen, and potentially Marty Booker could all be beneficiaries here. I like Orton to throw for three total on the day.

Matt Forte should certainly be started, because the Lions can't defend the run, either. He'll be good for two touchdowns and 130 yards in total, some will be through the air. Remember, he's also the Bears' leading receiver.

On the Detroit side, this game may not be as lost for them as you might think. The Chicago secondary is decidedly average. While Orlovski doesn't exactly scare teams, he should be able to throw for two touchdowns in this one, regardless of his overall ability. Calvin Johnson is obviously the primary target. Don't be surprised, though, to see Mike Furrey grab one as well. Just a feeling.

The Bears defend the run too well to ask much of Johnson or Smith. If they combine for 60 yards, that's going to be a good day. One will score, and my bet is that it ends up being Smith. They'll see what the rookie can do after Johnson averages two yards a carry in the first half. Not enough to warrant attention, though.

Sleeper Pickup: Davis. He's being targeted more frequently, and has been a good red-zone threat. Sneaky play if you're stuck in a bye week.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati

Who to Start: David Garrard, Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Jones (if not suspended), Reggie Williams
 
Who to Sit: Any Bengal not named Cedric Benson
 
What to Expect: This is another game where the Jaguars should be able to run all over their opponent. The Bengals, despite last week, are solid against the pass overall. That means running lanes.

Garrard is proving that his mobility is an asset to fantasy owners. Not only was he able to throw for two touchdowns against a defense that hadn't given up more than one in a game last week, he is also able to effectively run for yardage as well. Garrard is likely good two throwing touchdowns this week, but limited yardage through the air. He'll make up for it with 50 yards on the ground. Jones gets one, Reggie Williams the other. Williams will get Jones' if Jones is suspended.

Running the ball, you still have to like Jones-Drew more than Taylor. I'm down on Jones-Drew, but this could be the type of game that helps him to break out of it here. Look for him to score on the ground with 85 yards. Taylor is going to be more limited, in my view, but should reach 50 yards.

Stay away from all aspects of the Cincinnati passing game unless you're starting Houshmandzadeh. There is nothing else worth playing, and even Housh is borderline at this point. Ryan Fitzpatrick is doing his best to ruin any fantasy viability of all parties involved with this offense.

Cedric Benson should be able to run the same way that Jamal Lewis was able to run last week. I like Benson for 70 yards and a score. He's the only member on the Cincinnati side of the ball that I would want on my active roster. And that's only as a flex play.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Mike Walker. He's getting healthy, and should be looked at to grab any and all receptions once Jones is unavailable.

Baltimore at Cleveland

Who to Start: Willis McGahee, Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards
 
Who to Sit: Steve Heiden, Jamal Lewis, Joe Flacco, Ravens WRs
 
What to Expect: Baltimore's front seven is among the best in the league, and they're handling run defenses better than anyone. Add to that, despite an injured secondary, they've been able to hold opponents under 180 yards passing as well.

Those two sets of numbers don't bode well for the Cleveland offense. This is no doubt a grudge match, and points are always hard to come by when these teams meet. That said, someone needs to score for Cleveland. I don't think it will be Jamal Lewis. When a tough run defense comes his way, Lewis isn't able to do much. Asking him to break 60 yards is a stretch.

The passing game won't be much better. The Ravens could get Samari Rolle back this week, even though Chris McAllister likely won't see the field. With Rolle back, a secondary that is strong gets that much better. Edwards and Anderson have been getting on the same page, and I like Edwards to continue that with a touchdown catch against the Ravens.

There isn't much else to enjoy here, though. Because of how strong the front of the Ravens can be, it's likely that any Cleveland tight end will be needed to block. I don't like a big receiving day out of Heiden for that reason. Dinkins likely sees some additional time here. Avoid Anderson if you can.

On the Baltimore side, Willis McGahee didn't practice on Wednesday, but there is no indication that he will not be available against Cleveland. The Browns' passing defense isn't bad, and they'll need a healthy running back to pound away at some yards. If McGahee cannot go, I do like Le'Ron McClain as a quick-fix pickup.

Joe Flacco has been more consistent, and is coming off an impressive game last week. This is a different defense to face. I'd avoid any unnecessary Ravens for this one, including Derrick Mason. While Flacco likely throws for 190 and a touchdown, who that touchdown goes to is largely up for debate.

Not an offensive showing, this one will be.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Sorry, I'm avoiding this one. It's a grudge match, and that usually doesn't yield bonus points for going with deep sleepers.

Green Bay at Tennessee

Who to Start: Ryan Grant, Justin Gage
 
Who to Sit: Donald Driver, Aaron Rodgers
 
What to Expect: Without one of their starting defensive ends this past week, the Titans were more average than not on the defensive front. The Packers are more healthy, coming off a bye. 

This will be a tougher game for Tennessee than many might think, but strictly because of venue more than anything else. Yes, you can run on the Packers. They give up 140 yards per game on the ground. Johnson and White should both be started, potentially as RB2's in many formats. Both will find the end zone; both will have good days running the football.

You don't start Kerry Collins, but Bo Scaife and Justin Gage continue to be valuable members of the Titans' offense. Gage is a decent bye week fill-in option as a flex play. He's better in PPR formats but could grab a touchdown pass and will top 70 yards. Bo Scaife is the safer play and a top-10 tight-end play this week. The Packers have a physical secondary and are sitting at sixth against the pass. 

The Colts, though, are good against the pass, too, and the Titans were able to throw on them by varying their offensive sets. Look for more of the same.

The Packers' offense is in for a rougher go of it, but the Colts did show the way to attack such a good defense. I would keep Rodgers and Driver reserved if I have better option, but Jennings should still be a valuable commodity this week. Look for him to catch a touchdown to go with 90 yards. I just don't see a whole lot of upside for the passing attack beyond his numbers.

Ryan Grant, though, should be more effective. Rhodes had himself a decent game against this defense, and I like Grant to follow suit. 85 yards and two touchdowns on the ground for Grant. Sometimes you have to go with the hunches here.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Gage. He's valuable in PPR formats because of the consistent targets.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City

Who to Start: Earnest Graham, Warrick Dunn (beware, he's still banged up), Antonio Bryant

Who to Sit: Tyler Thigpen, Larry Johnson, Jeff Garcia
 
What to Expect: The Chiefs employed a spread offense last week and are likely to expand on that this week against one of the toughest defenses in football to throw on. The Bucs will look to run all over a defense that can't stop anyone on the ground.

I don't know what Mangini's gameplan was last week against the Chiefs, but don't expect Jon Gruden to make that same mistake. Graham will be used heavily to punish a defense that cannot stop teams on the ground. Warrick Dunn may or may not be available. If he is, he makes a decent flex option. I'd start Graham regardless of that fact.

With the running game so prevalent, Jeff Garcia could see a diminished role in what he's asked to do. Given his ability to put up some lousy fantasy numbers, at least this takes the decision out of owners' hands. Keep him reserved, but look to use Antonio Bryant. Bryant is the most consistent receiver and merits attention in deeper leagues.

I'm not a believer in Tyler Thigpen. He'll have to do more than start one decent game against a bad team to make me look to him. He did, though, make other pieces to the offense more valuable. Bowe and Gonzalez looked much more at ease in the newer format, and should be good going forward.

I wouldn't grab him yet, but keep an outside eye on Mark Bradley this week. He looked good against the Jets, and the AFC West has weak defenses in general. He could be a steal in the second half for some matchup plays.

Larry Johnson practiced with the scout team yesterday, so it's not exactly likely that he takes a snap here. Kolby Smith is the better play in our estimation. The Bucs, though, are eighth against the run and haven't allowed a rushing score yet this season. Just saying.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Kolby Smith. Not this week, but going forward.

Arizona at St. Louis

Who to Start: Kurt Warner, Steve Breaston, Donnie Avery, Marc Bulger
 
Who to Sit: Edgerrin James
 
What to Expect: Good matchup for Warner this week, as he gets a secondary that can be thrown on, even if they aren't the easiest of candidates. Good matchup for Bulger this week, as he gets a secondary that can be thrown on, even if they aren't the easiest of candidates.

The Cardinals are giving up two touchdown passes a game, though that number is slightly skewed by the torching delivered at the hands of Brett Favre. I still like the fact they're 20th in the NFL against the pass as a reason to trust Bulger if you need a quarterback. The emergence of Donnie Avery has given him a bit of a confidence boost and enabled Torry Holt to face less double coverage.

Bulger should be good for the two touchdown average here, and I like one to head the way of both receivers.

Steven Jackson wasn't available last week, despite saying all week he would be. Antonio Pittman ran well in his place. Whichever back is named starter is a definite play in this matchup. Jackson was limited yesterday, so monitor closely. He's an RB1 type start in this matchup if active, Pittman needs to be viewed as RB3 material.

Warner got Boldin back last week and was still able to spread the ball around to his top three receivers effectively. It's why we feel that Breaston is still a good play in this one. He had 90 yards last week, and there should be enough to go around this week as well.

That's especially true as the running game continues to flounder. Warner should be good for three touchdowns this week, with Fitzgerald and Boldin the lucky recipients. I don't see Breaston catching on, but he makes a good PPR play.

Edge has been marginalized in this offense, and his complaining isn't going to make that any better. Tim Hightower is getting more attention, and it likely isn't long before James isn't valuable at all. Keep him reserved and start Hightower in leagues that are TD heavy.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Antonio Pittman. As Jackson's handcuff, if nothing else.

Houston at Minnesota

Who to Start: Kevin Walter, Matt Schaub, Bernard Berrian, Gus Frerotte
 
Who to Sit: Chester Taylor, Ahman Green
 
What to Expect: Expect that each team will look to win this battle differently. The Vikings are not as solid against the pass, while the Texans can be run on.

I'm not a big Steve Slaton guy this week, but it's tough to bench the rookie. The Vikings have been tough on opposing running backs this season, so the key is to temper expectations. Slaton likely keeps his rushing totals under 100 yards, but should find the end zone at least once to make up for it. Ahman Green has been valuable in recent weeks, but that won't happen against Minnesota.

Matt Schaub will find better going through the air and should be able to repeat his three-touchdown performance from last week. Kevin Walter was held out of practice yesterday, but if healthy, he should be looked at as a strong start against the Minnesota defense. Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels are must plays, and both should find the end zone in this matchup.

For the Vikings, you start Adrian Peterson; we don't even need to really discuss this one. He should be in for one of the better days of the week among running backs. You have to like that. I wouldn't use Chester Taylor unless I was in a complete bind.

Gus Frerotte has proven to be a more than adequate game manager of a quarterback. I like him for two touchdown tosses this week. Berrian is a must play and grabs both of them. Frerotte should be looked to in deeper formats more than anything else, as this is going to be a day that focuses on getting Peterson back on track and to the level Minnesota needs him playing.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Walter. You might be too late, but this guy is worth a look here.

Back tomorrow for the late games!