College Football 2011: Are LSU and Alabama Really Locks to Lead the SEC in 2011?

Every fan has heard the old adage, defense wins championships. This adage, as with most, must be taken with caveats. A team with a passable defense and good offense will beat a team with an overwhelming defense and a mediocre offense most times.

In 2010 there were four teams in hot contention for the SEC Western Division. Two of those teams had very good defenses and mediocre offenses, neither won the division. The other two teams had passable defenses and good offenses and they took the top two spots in the division.

Statistics Per Game 2010

Team	Alabama	Arkansas	Auburn	LSU
Total Defense	286.38 yards	347.92 yards	368.36 yards	307.15 yards
Pass Defense	176.23 yards	185.31 yards	259.29 yards	259.25 yards
Rushing  Defense	110.15 yards	162.62 yards	109.07 yards	137.31 yards
Scoring Defense	13.54 points	23.38 points	24.07 points	18.23 points

These teams’ final standings in the SEC Western Division were.

1. Auburn
2. Arkansas
3. LSU
4. Alabama

This is how another old adage was proved to be less than reliable.

There is a very simple reason for this: The improvement curve for offenses is unlimited, and the improvement curve for defenses is very limited. Only a very few outstanding defenses have ever finished the season allowing less than 10 points per game average.

For 2011, this puts Alabama and LSU in a difficult position. For either team to improve their position in the SEC West, they can only hope for their defenses to improve by very little. They will likely have to look upon their offensive units for the improvement necessary to move up in the rankings.

Statistics Per Game 2010

Team	Alabama	Arkansas	Auburn	LSU
Total Offense	444.08 yards	482.54 yards	499.21 yards	341.31 yards
Passing Offense	261.15 yards	333.69 yards	214.43 yards	155.62 yards
Rushing Offense	182.92 yards	148.85 yards	284.79 yards	185.69 yards
Scoring Offense	35.69 points	36.46 points	41.21 points	29.69 points

This leaves the rest of the SEC in a favorable position. They have much more room for improvement on defense while having just as much potential to improve on offense. LSU, followed by Arkansas and Alabama, are favorites by many to lead the SEC this season. Auburn is expected to reload and prepare for another run in 2012.

The above statistics indicate that other teams in the SEC just may have an opening to ease into the SEC championship game if LSU and Alabama do not get a lot better on offense than they were in 2010.