Brazilian GP Preview: It's Time For The Final Curtain

For the third season in a row Sao Paulo will play host to the F1 finale. Lewis Hamilton needs to finish fifth to be champion. Massa ideally needs to win and hope Hamilton finishes outside of the top five. Hamilton should do it, but when the title fight goes down to the last race, always be prepared for the unexpected—anything can happen!

Track Guide and History

The Brazilian GP was first held at Interlagos in 1972. Although it wasn’t part of the official F1 scheldue that year. The first official Brazilian GP was held in the next season.

In 1978 the race moved to Jacarepagua.

Interlagos then came back for a couple of seasons before Jacarepagua became the hosts once again until 1990 when Interlagos took over once again. The race has been held there ever since.

Interlagos has one of the best crowd atmospheres in F1. The Brazilians spent years adoring Ayrton Senna, and Formula 1 has held the interest of Brazilians ever since. They have supported Rubens Barrichello, and most recently witnessed Felipe Massa’s sharp rise up the F1 ranks.

The Brazilian crowd could witness a driver winning the championship on home soil for only the second time in F1 history.

Interlagos is perhaps the perfect place to hold the F1 finale. It is one of the classic tracks in the F1 calendar. All the charm and character of the place has stayed throughout the circuit’s history. This is the kind of character that hasn’t remained at other older venues for various reasons.

The track features a mix of slow and fast corners and a couple of long straights. There are places to overtake. The weather is also very unpredictable, and can have a big impact on the race.

The lack of facilities gives team personnel a very big challenge. The members of the F1 paddock are practically living on top of each other. Security is a big issue at the circuit. Crime is a regular occurrence in this part of the world.

For this reason all the drivers and team bosses arrive at the track in cars with bullet proof windows and added security guards.

Overall Brazil probably has the worst facilities of anywhere in the F1 calendar. A lot of people ask how it can stay on the calendar? Whilst tracks like Silverstone suffer. The answer is very simple. The Interlagos circuit is apparently owned by one of Bernie Ecclestone’s mates. So there you go then!

The track is rated as an exciting and challenging track to drive by all the drivers. The first big challenge is the anti-clockwise nature of the circuit. Interlagos is the one of only two anti-clockwise tracks in F1 along with Istanbul. This gives added stress to the driver’s neck muscles as they are not accustomed to it.

The circuit is built on a slope so there are many elevation changes throughout the lap. The track starts with the Senna ‘S” taken at 106km/h. This leads onto the back straight where the drivers will reach speeds over 320km/h before going down into a 154km/h sweeping right-hander.

This then points the drivers in the direction of turns 6 and 7, which is a long sweeping right hander taken at around 230km/h. Drivers suffer the highest G force here on the lap at 5g. Immediately after this the drivers are in the braking zone for Turn 8, which is taken at just 74km/h.

Turns 8 to 13 are all slow and twisty. In this section it is important to attack as much as possible and make full use of the kerbs. Lots of time can be won and gained in the slow twisty section. At the end of this section is Turn 13 which is a left hander, which puts you onto the full throttle rise up the hill leading back to the pit straight.

From the exit of turn 13 onwards the drivers have their foot nailed to the floor all the way to the Senna ‘S’ corner. It’s important to get as good an exit from turn 13 as possible in order to maximize the run to turn 1. If you don’t get the maximum from turn 13 then you will be compromised and lose time, and risk getting overtaken in the race.

In free practise drivers will work hard to find a setup, which works well in all sections of the track. Good straight line speed is vital for the long drag up the hill to the main straight, and for the long back straight after the Senna ‘S’. The car needs to be well balanced for the twisty section and attack the kerbs with ease.

The circuit used to be very bumpy but it has recently been re-laid. Therefore it is now a much smoother circuit so for the drivers it’s more comfortable to race on than in previous seasons.

Interlagos normally produces very good races. Overtaking is possible in the Senna ‘S’ if you can get a good run out of turn 13 and get a slipstream. The Senna ‘S’ is a very heavy braking zone after so long in full throttle so drivers can really attack one another. If you can stick close through the Senna ‘S’ then there is a very good opportunity at the end of the long back straight. (Turn 4)

Just about anything can happen at Interlagos, and it has done in the past.

Here is championship favourite Lewis Hamilton’s view of the Interlagos circuit:

“I love the circuit: it's in this incredible natural arena that is just amazing to race on. And it's anti-clockwise too - so it presents an additional challenge to the drivers. The track always seems to provide good, close racing: one of the reasons for that is because there's a long straight leading up to the first corner and you can slipstream other cars and overtake into Turn One. It's also a place where there seems to be a lot of grip so you can dice with other cars and have fun.”

Recent Brazilian GP memories

An awful a lot has happened at the Brazilian GP, and that is just in the last few years.

Last season was the 3-way title fight between Fernando Alonso, Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Raikkonen. Hamilton had the lead in the championship but the race proved a disaster for him.

He lost 2 positions in the Senna ‘S’ and then as he tried to get back at Alonso he slid wide off the track and lost a few positions. He fought back but then there was a temporary gearbox problem, and he was stuck in neutral.

By some miracle he got going again but he was all the way back in 17th place. He overtook car after car but he could only manage seventh position. He needed fifth place to clinch the title.

The BMW Saubers and Rosberg’s Williams almost took each other out and gifted those two places Lewis needed. However it wasn’t to be. Alonso didn’t have the pace to keep up with the Ferraris and ended up third. Kimi Raikkonen took the win and became the surprise winner of the 2007 championship.

In 2006 Alonso just needed one point to beat Michael Schumacher. Schumacher had a problem in qualifying and started only 10th. He then had further bad luck as he punctured a tyre whilst trying to overtake Giancarlo Fisichella. This all but guaranteed the title for Alonso.

The race wasn’t over as Schumacher entertained in his final ever F1 race and fought back in style. From being nearly a lap down he ended up finishing in fourth place. The highlight was a spectacular move on Kimi Raikkonen into the Senna ‘S’. This race almost summed up Michael Schumacher’s entire career in 90 minutes.

In 2005 Alonso became the youngest F1 champion (this record could go this weekend). He just needed to finish third which is what he did behind the two Mclarens.

2003 was one of the most dramatic races of all time in terrible wet conditions. The race started behind the Safety car and ended with a red flag. Alonso crashed when hitting debris from Mark Webber’s wrecked Jaguar. He finished third in an ambulance.

Seven or eight cars also hit the wall at turn 3 as an ever-changing puddle of water caught drivers out. This even included Michael Schumacher. Fisichella took the win in the Jordan. It was first thought Kimi Raikkonen won the race but once the two-lap count back had been applied, it was Fisichella who was leading.

2001 saw the dramatic entrance in Formula 1 of Juan Pablo Montoya. He brought fans to their feet, as he made a huge lunge on Schumacher at the Senna S and hung him out to dry. He was looking good for the race win until he lapped Verstappen and then immediately got hit by him. His big chance had gone.

Michael Schumacher resumed the lead but then rain came. Coulthard closed down on Schumacher and performed an even better move than Montoya. Coulthard used a backmarker to good effect and dived cleanly down the inside of Schumacher. Coulthard went on to take the chequered flag. This was one of the Scot’s finest F1 wins.

If you continued to go back in time you could go on forever recalling great events, which have happened at this GP.

What is likely to happen this weekend?

Lewis Hamilton goes into this race seven points ahead of Felipe Massa in the Drivers Championship. In the Constructors Championship Ferrari are 11 points ahead of Mclaren.

To have any chance of winning the title Felipe Massa has to finish in the top two. If he wins the race he needs to hope that Lewis Hamilton finishes outside of the top five. If Felipe Massa finishes in second position, Hamilton has to ensure that he finishes in at least seventh position to take the crown.

If Massa were to finish second and Hamilton were to finish eighth, the pair would be level on points. In this situation Felipe Massa would win the title on the virtue of having more second place finishes than Hamilton.

Felipe Massa says that all the pressure will be on Lewis Hamilton this weekend. On the whole that is true. Hamilton threw the title away last season, and as the points leader the pressure is on him not to throw away the title again, from a comfortable position for the second consecutive season.

He was 7 points clear of 2007 title winner Kimi Raikkonen at last season’s finale. However Hamilton has learnt a lot since 2007. He admits he wasn’t well enough prepared for the title deciding races in 2007. This season he has ensured to be better mentally prepared. Another plus is he doesn’t have his team mate in the title battle too. Therefore he has a wingman to help him out if necessary.

Not so much pressure is on Felipe Massa. Everyone is expecting Hamilton to do what he needs to do. Massa knows that he just has to go all out for the victory, and take risks to do this if necessary.

Although there will be an expectant home crowd, and media who will all be wanting the first Brazilian title winner since Aryton Senna. Massa will be very likely receiving a lot of attention and questions all weekend long. Keeping focused throughout all of this may be a challenge for him this weekend.

Last season Ferrari had by far the quicker car in Brazil on raceday. This was down partly to new track surface, which was laid before the race. It removed the bumps, which suited the Ferrari.

Even more importantly the new tarmac was darkened so it absorbed the heat a lot more. This made the track temperature soar on raceday. This again suited Ferrari. Mclaren’s development was also affected by all the politics that were going on and inter team rivalry between Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton.

The team were very distracted and not as well prepared as they should have been.

This season it should be a much closer battle between the two teams. Mclaren’s performance has improved throughout the season. Mclaren and Ferrari are a lot closer together on all types of tracks, which wasn’t the case in 2007. Mclaren’s development over the last couple of races has also been very strong. In China Mclaren totally outclassed Ferrari.

For this race Mclaren are promising more aggressive development in order to put themselves ahead of Ferrari. This will include a new rear wing. Mclaren have no distractions this season going into the final race. The whole operation is far more stable and positive than it was this time in 2007.

So it should overall be very close. If it is very warm in Brazil this weekend then Ferrari will have the slight advantage but it won’t be by much. However if temperatures are cooler as they are expected to be throughout the weekend, then Mclaren could have the advantage as they did in Shanghai. Light showers are a possibility.

The Ferrari have problems warming up the tyres in damp conditions, so Mclaren would be at a definite advantage here. Rain would make life harder for Felipe Massa who has never finished in the top two in a race that has been rain affected. If rain were to fall he would simply have to break that trend, in this race to have any chance to win the title.

A factor that wasn’t seen in last season’s title showdown as that we could see one or two other drivers getting into the mix. Renault have dramatically improved their car over the last couple of months.

Along with this, Fernando Alonso has been in simply inspired form. The Renault should work well around this track so he may be close enough to get amongst the Mclarens and Ferraris. The sight of Fernando Alonso may not be too welcome for Hamilton.

Alonso has made it perfectly clear, that he would rather see Massa win the title than Hamilton. Alonso may try something to ruin Lewis’s chances. However how far he would be prepared to go is an entirely different question.

Kubica has been another driver in strong form this season. If he can pull a good weekend together he is also close enough to challenge the top four.

To have any chance of the constructor’s title, Mclaren need to have a 1-2 finish and hope Ferrari have a few problems. To get a 1-2 Hamilton will really have to push hard and that could lead to mistakes affecting his drivers championship. Remember that Ferrari should be hard to beat in Brazil.

So do Mclaren gamble and try and take on Ferrari in the Constructors knowing that if Hamilton were to push too hard in trying to win the WCC they could lose both championships or do they take the attitude that its unlikely they will win the constructors (unless Ferrari have a DNF) therefore just ensuring Hamilton wins his title?

From Ron Dennis’s recent words is that the priority is to allow Lewis Hamilton to win his first driver's title. He wouldn’t be too upset by Ferrari getting a 1-2 if Hamilton does enough to be champion.

Ferrari have this similar dilemma. They should wrap up the Constructors title with ease. In order for Massa to be champion he needs to push hard in order to win and hope something happens to Lewis. This could result in Massa making an error and de-railing the Constructors Championship hopes. Although it seems that the Driver’s title has always been Ferrari’s biggest passion.

So the end result is that both Mclaren and Ferrari will be focusing on the Driver’s title as their number 1 priority. The Constructors title doesn’t mean as much to the team these days.

So now it’s prediction time!

Lewis Hamilton should be able to finish fifth or higher. We need to remember though, that this season has featured many twists and turns. In a championship final absolutely anything can happen. A whole number of things could go wrong for Lewis Hamilton:

He could have a puncture (as he did in Hungary)

He could have a collision with a backmarker (as Montoya did with Jos Verstappen in 2001)

He could fumble his pitstop.

He could have a reliability issue as team mate Kovalainen did in Fuji.

He could crack and make another error.

Lewis Hamilton has scored no points on four occassions this season. Felipe Massa has scored no points on five occassions, so instances as above have happened a lot to front running drivers during the 2008 season.

Lewis’s approach should be to go for pole position, and then see how the race pans out from there and try to take it steady. McLaren should try and put Kovalainen on an aggressive strategy and make him go for the win, and interrupt Massa’s race. This could make Hamilton breath a little easier.

For Massa the approach is simple. Throw caution to the wind.

In conclusion, I think Hamilton’s race will go to plan and he will get what he needs to win the title. However it will be a very nerve wracking race for everyone as viewers hold their breath every time he approaches a backmarker.

Everyone will wonder whether his car will hold together. I think Massa will respond to his home crowd and dominate the race but this season it won’t be enough for him.

I think Lewis Hamilton will be crowned the youngest ever winner of the Formula 1 world championship on Sunday. On the other side of the coin Ferrari will retain their constructors trophy.

Top 3 Prediction

1. Felipe Massa
2. Heikki Kovalainen
3. Lewis Hamilton

And my final word goes to veteran driver David Coulthard, who will be hanging up his helmet after the chequered flag comes out on Sunday. He has had a very strong career with 13 GP victories and a second place in 2001 in the championship. He will be missed by all in 2009. He will remain at Red Bull racing in a consultant role similar to Michael Schumacher at Ferrari.