Texas Follows Atlanta in More Ways than One

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Texas Motor Speedway has made the Chase more predictable. Immediately following Atlanta, just two races removed from Lowe's, and with only Phoenix sandwiched in between it and Homestead, Texas serves as the place where the best remain on top.

All you need to do is ask the last three winners of the fall Atlanta race, as they’re in victory lane the very next week at Texas. For Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart, and Jimmie Johnson, they haven’t minded a bit.

It’s downright scary how similar these two tracks have been, and look at the finishing order in the top five for each of these races:

2005
Atlanta-Texas
1. Edwards-Edwards
2. Gordon-Martin
3. Martin-Kenseth
4. Earnhardt Jr.-Mears
5. Kenseth-Johnson

2006
Atlanta-Texas
1. Stewart-Stewart
2. Johnson-Johnson
3. Earnhardt Jr.-Harvick
4. Kenseth-Ky. Busch
5. Biffle-Bowyer

2007
Atlanta-Texas
1. Johnson-Johnson
2. Edwards-Kenseth
3. Sorenson-Truex
4. Kenseth-Ky. Busch
5. Burton-Newman

The margins seem to be decreasing, but the winners have an uncanny knack for doubling up. Personally, I’d prefer the 2004 schedule to return in some way. Darlington took the penultimate spot in the Chase and Phoenix was third from the end. That’s my editorial soapbox. Let’s see where our champs finished in each Texas race since it's been in the Chase.

Champs finish:
2007: Jimmie Johnson-1st
2006: Jimmie Johnson–2nd
2005: Tony Stewart–6th

I went with Jimmie at Atlanta, and the end result was good for my fantasy team. But, for the Chase, it was a bummer. Edwards did as much as he could to cut into the lead, slinging a car around the track and making the money move when it mattered.

However, I’m torn this week as I’d love to see the tradition continue for his sake, but I have a feeling it could be broken. Look for Carl and Jimmie to be strong again, but Denny Hamlin made an impressive run that could have easily landed him in the win column.

I also expect to see Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, and Jeff Burton to be near the front. This has been a Ford/Chevy battleground, and I see no reason for that to change.

Jamie McMurray could win here Sunday. In the last few weeks, the No. 26 has been on fire, only to succumb to misfortune, whether it be parts failure or getting caught in a mess. He was fast at Lowe's and ended strong at Atlanta; he would be a smart sleeper pick.

Another smart sleeper will be Juan Pablo Montoya. He had a strong piece at Atlanta as well. My third option would be A.J. Allmendinger, unquestionably the best driver in the series without a full-time ride for 2009.

We’re going to delve down country music row for Texas. My pick this week is a perfect complement to the Texas moniker The Great American Speedway. It’s the Brooks & Dunn song “Only In America.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media