NFL Draft: Ranking the No. 1 Overall Draft Picks Since 2000
Since the dawn of the century, the NFL has seen a constant turnover in the top teams in the NFL. Since the 2000 NFL season, 15 of the NFL's 32 teams have played in the Super Bowl. Perhaps nothing is more important in improving your team than how well your organization drafts players. Just ask teams like the Detroit Lions just how important it is.
The first key into transforming your team from a bottom-dweller into a top-tier team is how your team spends their first-round draft picks. This list will rank each player drafted with the No. 1 overall pick of the past 11 years from worst to best, analyze how good the pick was and who they could have had instead with the No. 1 overall pick.
Oakland Raider fans beware...
11. JaMarcus Russell
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Who They Could Have Drafted: Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson
I don't think there's any debate about this: JaMarcus Russell is the biggest bust since 2000, and perhaps is the biggest bust of all time. Ryan Leaf finally has company.
Russell was drafted with the No. 1 overall pick in 2007 by the Oakland Raiders, and there was really no debate about it heading into the draft; the Raiders were gonna select Russell barring some sort of miracle.
The Raiders needed a quarterback plain and simple. In 2006, in a dreadful 2-14 season that was bad even by Raiders standards, the team started Andrew Walter and Aaron Brooks the entire season. The two combined to throw for six TDs and 21 INTs. Not exactly Pro Bowl numbers.
The Raiders were so bad in 2006, that they went 0-9 to end the season.
Russell was supposed to be the next great rocket-armed QB for the next decade but instead, turned out to be one huge dud. Criticized for his laziness and lack of work ethic, Russell seemingly regressed every season in his three-season tenure in the NFL.
In 2008, his first year starting, Russell wasn't bad for a QB starting his first full year in the NFL. Russell threw for 13 TDs and eight INTs for a 77.1 QB rating in an extreme ball-control offense that saw the Raiders rank in the top 10 in rushing attempts to prevent exposing the flaws in Russell's game.
2009 was a completely different story. In one of the worst seasons for an NFL QB in NFL history, Russell threw three TDs and and 11 INTs for a 48.8 completion rate and a 50.0 QB rating in 12 games before he was mercifully benched for Bruce Gradkowski late in the season.
JaMarcus Russell is the perfect example of scouts getting way too excited over measurements and the combine, rather than taking the time to actually read the player.
10. Courtney Brown
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Who They Could Have Drafted: Lavar Arrington, Chris Samuels, Jamal Lewis, Brian Urlacher, Shaun Ellis
Courtney Brown was drafted with the No. 1 overall pick in 2000 by the second-year Cleveland Browns. Like Russell, Brown was a combine freak. He measured in at 6'5", 271 pounds and ran the 40-yard dash in 4.52 seconds; that's great for a defensive end.
He wasn't just a combine freak though; he was an accomplished collegiate star lineman at Penn State. He won numerous awards and was a finalist for several others.
Brown was supposed to be for the Browns what Bruce Smith was for the Buffalo Bills for so many years.
After having a productive rookie season in 2000 totaling 70 tackles and 4.5 sacks, the bottom fell out. Courtney Brown would go on to suffer through constant nagging injuries during his five-year tenure in Cleveland, until he was finally signed by the Denver Broncos in the summer of 2005 to reunite with old teammates Ebenezer Ekuban, Michael Myers and Gerard Warren.
Brown probably had his second-best season in the pros that year, starting the entire season at DE for the Broncos, where he helped them to an AFC Championship game appearance vs. the Steelers.
After it looked like Brown was about to revive his career when he signed a contract extension with Denver, he tore his anterior cruciate ligament in the preseason of '06, and was forced to retire from the NFL.
Had injuries not taken over Brown's career, he could very well still be serving in a situational pass-rusher role in the NFL today.
9. Matthew Stafford
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If Matthew Stafford could stay on the field, we might be talking about him today like we talk about Sam Bradford.
Stafford is only 23 years of age and two years into his NFL career, so it's not like he's a bust. He has plenty of time to prove his worth in the NFL, unlike Russell, whose NFL career is likely over. Stafford just needs to find a way to stay on the field.
Stafford has had serious injuries to his throwing arm (which he has had surgery on) and his collarbone in his young NFL career. In his young NFL career, he helped break a 19-game losing streak for the Lions in his rookie season in 2009.
He has already had bright moments, such as the shootout with the Browns in which he returned from a collarbone injury to throw the game-winning TD pass with time expiring—a game in which he threw for five touchdowns. He threw for four touchdowns in a win over the Washington Redskins this past season.
Stafford has all of the tools of an NFL QB, so I'm not going to wonder "what if" the Lions drafted somebody else. Stafford just needs to be able to stay healthy on the field.
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8. Alex Smith
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Who They Could Have Drafted: Aaron Rodgers (Super Bowl MVP, Pro Bowler in 2009)
Alex Smith was drafted by the San Francisco 49ers in 2005. Entering the draft, the question was who would the Niners take: Aaron Rodgers or Alex Smith? The question was answered, and I think everybody already knows the answer.
Rodgers has turned into a top-three QB in the NFL, led the Packers to a Super Bowl victory in his third season in the NFL and has exceeded the heavy expectations of playing in Favre's shadow since the very beginning.
Smith on the other hand, well...
Smith has not had the best luck—I'll give him that. In his six-year tenure in the NFL, he has never had a stable offensive coordinator. He has had three different head coaches, and other than Vernon Davis, has never had a true go-to guy like other QBs have had the luxury of having to ease their transition.
But I think it's safe to say Smith is nothing more than an average QB; that's his ceiling.
After having numerous attempts in his six years to prove his worth, Smith has disappointed. Time and time again.
In 2010, the Niners were expected to run away with the NFC West in the wake of Kurt Warner's retirement from Arizona. Instead, we saw two 7-9 teams, the Rams and Seahawks battle it out for the NFC West crown (can we even call it that?) in the final game of the regular season, while the Niners watched from home.
In a season in which Smith was supposed to break out after having the best season of his career in 2009, Smith was benched in favor of Troy Smith, before regaining the starting job and then being benched again before the end of the regular season, in favor of Troy Smith.
7. David Carr
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Who They Could Have Drafted: Julius Peppers, Roy Williams, John Henderson, Dwight Freeney, Mike Williams
The expansion Houston Texans drafted David Carr with their first-ever draft pick in 2002, in hopes that he'd lead Houston into the new millennium the way that Lone Star legend Troy Aikman led the Cowboys into the 1990s.
Only one problem: You need an offensive line to protect your quarterback.
After drafting tackle Tony Boselli in the expansion draft with their first pick, Boselli was unable to ever play a game for the Texans due to nagging injuries. Boselli's injury started a five-year trend that saw David Carr become the NFL's punching bag.
Carr became the most sacked QB during his tenure with the Texans, setting the record for most times sacked in a single season (76) and holding the dubious distinction of recovering the most fumbles in a season (recovering 12 of his own).
Carr was a quarterback who had all of the tools in the world to become a franchise NFL QB, but from the very onset he was screwed due to the lack of an offensive line that protected him.
6. Sam Bradford
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I think we can safely say that the Rams were on the money with their pick of Sam Bradford in the 2010 NFL draft.
In the best season for a rookie QB since Peyton Manning in 1998, Bradford led a Rams franchise that went 1-15 the previous season to a 7-9 record and one win away from securing an NFC West title and a home game in the playoffs.
Bradford put up statistics of 3,512 yards, 18 TDs, 15 INTs and a 60 percent completion rate becoming the Rams' leader on offense.
A few years from now Sam Bradford might be No. 1 on this list...
5. Carson Palmer
7 of 11Who They Could Have Drafted: Andre Johnson
Carson Palmer was drafted with the top overall pick in 2003 by a Bengals franchise that had been on the losing end for the past 12 years of their existence.
Palmer led the Bengals to an unexpected AFC North crown in 2005 for the Bengals' first playoff appearance since 1990, before suffering a career-altering injury on the first play of their Wild Card Game against the Steelers, in which he tore his ACL and MCL, along with suffering damage to his cartilage and meniscus.
Palmer is not the same QB that he was before the injury, but he is still a decent QB. He led the Bengals to another AFC North crown in 2009 in a caretaker role, allowing Cedric Benson to become the go-to guy for Cincy.
Palmer's NFL career may or may not be over, depending on what Cincy does with him, but there's no doubt that Palmer has lived up to his billing in only eight years of NFL service. He brought stability and a winning culture to a franchise that didn't have any.
4. Michael Vick
8 of 11Who They Could Have Drafted: LaDainian Tomlinson
In 2001, the Falcons drafted Mike Vick and from the moment that he was drafted, people all around the NFL waited in anticipation to watch this skinny kid from V-Tech run all around the field and make defenders look like crash dummies.
Vick finally got his chance when his predecessor, Chris Chandler, had worn out his welcome late in the 2001 season.
Vick led the Falcons to two playoff berths in the four years he started for the team, becoming the first QB to ever win at Lambeau Field in a playoff game.
Vick revived his career in 2010 with the Eagles after going four years without starting due to legal troubles, having the best season of his pro career, throwing 21 TDs, six INTs for a 100.2 QB rating, while also adding 676 yards rushing. The Eagles would win the NFC East in 2010 before falling to Green Bay in the Wild Card Round.
Had Vick not gotten into legal trouble and missed two (basically three) seasons of his NFL career, a case could have easily been made for him being No. 1 on this list.
3. Eli Manning
9 of 11Who They Could Have Drafted: Larry Fitzgerald, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger
Eli Manning was drafted by the San Diego Chargers in 2004, but before the draft, demanded that he be traded from SD if he were chosen by them with the No. 1 overall pick.
He got his wish.
He was traded to the Giants, where he has become one of the top 10 QBs in the NFL. Although shaky at times, Manning has made the Giants into an annual playoff contender and is already a Super Bowl champion, knocking off the undefeated New England Patriots in one of the greatest upsets in sports history.
Who would have thought that Peyton's little brother Eli would step out of his shadow...
2. Mario Williams
10 of 11Who They Could Have Drafted: AJ Hawk
In 2006, the Texans held the No. 1 overall pick. The choice was between two guys: Mario Williams and Reggie Bush.
After the Texans made Mario their No. 1 overall pick, ESPN and the media shredded the Texans for their pick. How could you draft a defensive end instead of a running back who can play numerous positions and make defenses adjust on the fly because of his presence on the field? How can you draft a defensive end who will probably be an average player instead of a guy who will be one of the premier running backs in the game for the next 10 years?
Yeah, ESPN was right on the mark with that one.
While Bush has toiled in New Orleans, Mario Williams has become one of the best defensive ends in the game. A two-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro, Mario Williams silenced the critics after a tough rookie season and proved he was worthy of the No. 1 overall pick after all.
1. Jake Long
11 of 11Who They Could Have Drafted: Matt Ryan
In 2008, Miami was coming off their worst season in franchise history when they went 1-15. A lot of positions needed to be filled, including quarterback.
Miami could have had franchise QB Matt Ryan, but instead they got a guy who is a franchise left tackle. And he's on his way to becoming one of the greatest of all time.
Long has been selected to three Pro Bowls and is a two time All-Pro in his three-year NFL career.
In 2008, he gave up only two sacks, and in 2009 he gave up only four sacks. The only offensive tackle that has better numbers than that is Cleveland's Joe Thomas.
Jake Long is the definition of a dominant tackle and will continue to anchor Miami's offensive line well into the next decade.
Jake Long is the best No. 1 overall pick of the new millennium.
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