UFC on Versus 4: Predictions You Can Take To The Bank

The UFC will air another rock-solid fight card on free TV when UFC on Versus 4—or, as it is officially known, UFC Live: Marquardt vs. Story—hits the airwaves this Sunday from Pittsburgh.

Lots of storylines in this one, with 12 fights on tap and all either airing live on Versus or streaming through Facebook. But allow us to distill down the chatter into five predictions you can take to the bank.

5. Matt Mitrione Is Going to Physically Kill Christian Morecraft

Hey, just joking. I very much respect Christian Morecraft, and fully hope and expect to see him enjoy a long and fulfilling career as a UFC fighter.

But he’s going to get his butt kicked this Sunday.

Mitrione’s record to date includes a string of cans so long you’d think he was trying to organize a conference call from a treehouse. His five opponents so far—Marcus Jones, Kimbo Slice, Joey Beltran, Tim Hague and now Morecraft—have a combined UFC record of 6-9. You know what? That’s not very good.

The heavyweight division could use a little talent infusion. Mitrione isn't exactly ready for Cain Velasquez, but his body and game seem to improve with every fight. I expect Morecraft to be the final test for Mitrione before he embarks on a new phase in his fight career.

4. This Will Be Matt Brown's Final Fight in the UFC

Matt Brown is to be commended for replacing Martin Kampmann on short notice, despite the fact that he is probably facing a must-win situation if he wishes to stay in the UFC.

I’ve been a fan of Brown’s since his time on The Ultimate Fighter, when he shut up that obnoxious guy whose name I can’t remember by kicking him in the face. That’ll teach you to put lime juice in another man’s chewing tobacco, obnoxious guy.

In any event, Brown will face a stiff test in John “Doomsday” Howard, who has dropped two straight and could also use a win right about now.

Though Howard fancies himself a knockout artist and will probably comport himself thus at least initially, he knows he needs a W more than a highlight reel at the moment. As such, he will probably try to take Brown to the ground, where Howard has found six career victories by submission.

By contrast, in each of his previous three fights—all losses—Brown, who is primarily a boxer, was submitted. In fact, eight of his 10 losses have come by tapout. 

This is not a good combination of things for The Immortal, and I think it will add up to his UFC swan song.

3. Joe Stevenson Will Win, Return to Televised Cards

Joe Stevenson cannot be this bad.

Back in March, Joe Daddy lost to Danny Castillo to extend his losing streak to three. But he has also beaten the likes of Melvin Guillard, Kurt Pellegrino and Nate Diaz. 

Still, things are looking pretty grim right now for Stevenson, and it’s an open secret that a loss here would probably mean his exit from the UFC.

Fighting at featherweight for the first time, Stevenson will face Javier Vasquez, a second-degree jiu-jitsu black belt (and Gracie family in-law) with nine submission wins to his credit. But Stevenson isn’t far behind, as he is a BJJ black belt in his own right, and owns 15 submissions in 44 contests.

Given that he began his career as a welterweight, the cut might prove challenging for Stevenson. But if Stevenson is to be believed, it seems to be coming along rather well.

The true X factor here, though, may be anger. Generally known as a good-natured fighter and all-around good guy, Stevenson bristled recently at some of Vazquez’s prefight antics, and now says he intends to “break something” if given the chance this Sunday.

Stevenson may give up something in the grappling game, but he is the more well-rounded fighter and, with a serious fire now blazing beneath him, he should score the W.

2. Kongo Displays Full Arsenal, Pounds Barry Out

Cheick Kongo has been the UFC’s gatekeeper at heavyweight for quite some time now. Pat Barry won’t take that away in this battle of converted kickboxers.

Kongo has been working on his ground game and his aggression, and seems to have more options at his disposal than does Barry (clinching against the cage and ground-and-pound both seem plausible).  

Meanwhile, Barry is an exciting fighter but has not done a great deal to justify the flurry of buying that his introduction generated on the MMA futures market.

In my own personal viewing experiences, kickboxer-on-kickboxer crime usually entails either a full-on war, or a bearhug-fest in which the standup games essentially cancel each other out, leaving secondary skillsets to break the stalemate. I’m banking on the latter in this situation, with Kongo coming out on top.

1. Nate Marquardt Slams the Brakes on the Rick Story Hype Train

I think Rick Story will be a contender at welterweight some day. Sunday will not be that day.

Story has enjoyed a terrific, six-fight run of success, and springboarded to this main event after defeating Thiago Alves.

Both men like to grapple, but I see Marquardt’s power (if it survives the weight cut) giving him the advantage, particularly when the fight is on the feet.

Marquardt has also been in there with Anderson Silva, and he trains regularly with Georges St-Pierre. Not to deal in clichés, but he knows what it takes to be a winner.

Story will fight another day, but he’ll need more time and more seasoning before he can tangle with the likes of Marquardt. Simple as that.