NASCAR Sprint Cup: 10 Bold Predictions for the Sprint Cup Race at Infineon
Denny Hamlin secured his first victory of the season at Michigan International Speedway on Father's Day. The Sprint Cup Series now travels to Sonoma, Calif. for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Infineon Raceway. Jimmie Johnson is the defending champion.
Infineon Raceway is the first road course race of the season. Road course races are highly unpredictable as illustrated by last season's results in Sonoma. Robby Gordon, Marcos Ambrose and Boris Said all finished within the top 10 while many big-name drivers finished near the rear of the pack.
The track is nearly two miles long and features 10 turns. The race is 110 laps long. Jeff Gordon has the most wins at Infineon, with five.
Here is a list of 10 bold predictions for next week's Sprint Cup race at Infineon.
Kurt Busch Will Win His Fourth Straight Pole
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Kurt Busch's charge toward the top of the Sprint Cup standings has been aided by strong qualifying performances. Most notably, he has won the last three poles leading to three straight finishes inside the top 11.
Busch's streak will continue at Infineon, where he qualified third last year. A fourth straight pole will put him within one of tying the all-time Sprint Cup record. Bobby Allison in 1972 and Cale Yarborough in 1980 are the only two drivers to win five consecutive poles in NASCAR's modern era.
Unfortunately for Busch, the poles haven't led to a victory. Busch has won at least one race in each of the previous nine seasons, but has yet to record a win in 2011. His average finishing position of 11.9 is the highest of his career though, which is the main reason he is currently tied for sixth in points.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. Will Qualify Outside the Top 30
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It is no secret that Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been struggling to qualify this season. His average starting position is 21.7, the third-worst mark of his career. He has started outside the top 20 in 11 of the 15 races so far this season.
His luck isn't likely to change at Infineon, where his average starting position is 21.4 in 11 career races. That number includes last season, when he qualified 24th. Overall, Infineon is one of Junior's worst tracks. He has never finished in the top 10 and has an average finish of 20.5 at Sonoma.
Despite the qualifying woes, however, Earnhardt still finds himself in third place. He is 27 points behind Carl Edwards, the Sprint Cup leader. He would likely be even closer if not for the poor qualifying results.
Denny Hamlin Will Struggle After Michigan Win
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Denny Hamlin's triumph at Michigan moved him up three spots in the Sprint Cup standings, into ninth place. The win was the first of the season for Hamlin and extended his streak of seasons with at least one victory to six. He has had at least one win in every season since becoming a full-time driver in 2006.
Hamlin hasn't performed particularly well at Infineon. His average starting position is 25, while his average finish is 17.6. He does have one top-five finish in five career races at the track, however. Hamlin has had better luck at the other road course on the schedule, Watkins Glen International, but hasn't been able to translate that success to Sonoma.
As for the momentum theory, it doesn't hold much weight for Hamlin. Last season, he won the Michigan race prior to his 34th place finish at Infineon.
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The New Fueling System Will Cost a Good Car a High Finish
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One of the most interesting stories about the NASCAR season so far has been the constant fuel issues teams are having. It is reminiscent of the issues the NBA had when they introduced a new basketball in 2006, before switching back to the old-style in the middle of the season.
With the new way that the gas can operates, teams have had trouble completely fueling up their cars or worse yet, they have not been getting any fuel in them at all. Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne both struggled with the issue at Michigan and several other drivers have complained about the new can throughout the season.
It would not be surprising if NASCAR took the NBA route and switched to the old gas cans at some point during the season. The last thing they want is a champion decided by the guy who fills up the tank as opposed to the drivers on the track.
There Will Be at Least 10 Different Race Leaders
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Over the past four years, there have been no more than eight different leaders during a NASCAR race at Infineon. Judging by laps led numbers, most of the time there are two dominant cars that lead the majority of the race.
This season is closer than most in recent memory however, with seven drivers within 41 points of the lead and 12 drivers within 100 points of Carl Edwards. That means this race should be a little better contested throughout, giving the fans more passing than they are accustomed to.
The only thing that could throw a wrench into this prediction is the difficulty of passing at a road course. With the increased number of turns and shorter straightaways, it makes it tougher to gain speed and make the pass.
Carl Edwards' Points Lead Will Shrink Once Again
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After a 37th place finish in the 5-hour ENERGY 500 at Pocono Raceway last week, Carl Edwards has seen his points lead shrink dramatically. It will likely take another hit at Infineon, where Edwards has struggled during his career.
In six career races at the track, Edwards has never finished in the top five and has only two top-10s. His mean finish is 18.8, which is his second-lowest of any track. Like Denny Hamlin, Edwards has had some success at Watkins Glen, but has struggled at Infineon.
Edwards has been the most consistent driver through the first 15 races, so he is the rightful leader at this point in the season. The tracks coming up on the schedule don't favor him though, so he'll have to survive this stretch if he wants to remain on top heading into the Chase.
Mark Martin Will Finish in the Top-10
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Once Mark Martin takes the green flag at Infineon, he will gain sole possession of first place with 21 starts at the track. Martin will break a tie with Terry Labonte. In his 20 starts at Sonoma so far, he has just one victory.
Although the wins haven't come easily at Infineon for Martin, he has usually been in contention. His average finish at the track is 11.5 and he has 13 top-10s. Those statistics make Infineon Martin's fifth-most successful track during his illustrious career.
Martin will need a strong stretch of races to make the Chase, as he currently sits in 14th place. A good finish at one of his best tracks might get him back on the right track.
Boris Said Will Finish in the Top-10
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Boris Said has gained the reputation of being a road course specialist, even if the statistics really don't back it up. Said is expected to be in Phoenix Racing's No. 51 car for both road courses this season.
In his career, Said has made 21 starts at road courses and 20 starts at normal tracks. At Infineon, he has five top-10s in 11 starts with an average finish of 19.5. At Watkins Glen, Said has two top-10s and a top-five in 10 starts, but his average finish in only 24.6.
It is unclear whether a lack of competitive equipment is the reason for Said's mediocre results at these tracks. It's either that or it's a myth that he is a road-racing expert. That said (no pun intended), he will add another top-10 to his résumé this week.
Juan Pablo Montoya Will Finish in the Top-Five
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Although his results as a whole have been disappointing since he joined NASCAR in 2007, Juan Pablo Montoya has thrived at road courses. In eight career road races, Montoya has finished in the top-10 seven times.
He has just two victories in his four-plus seasons in NASCAR, but one of them came in this race in his rookie season. Overall, he has finished in the top-10 all four times he has been to Infineon and has an average finish of 5.8.
Those numbers are hard to ignore. With Montoya needing to pick up the pace if he wants to make the Chase, look for some very aggressive driving from the No. 42 car at Sonoma leading to a top-five finish.
Greg Biffle Will Win the Race
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If there were an award for unluckiest driver, it would likely be a two-horse race between Greg Biffle and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Whether it be a pit road problem or an ill-timed caution, Biffle hasn't been able to find victory lane this season.
Biffle has an average finish of 14.9 at Sonoma and he has finished inside the top-10 three times in eight races. He has never finished above fourth, however. In last season's race, Biffle finished seventh after falling to 40th early in the race and fighting all the way back into the top-10.
Biffle is in serious danger of missing the Chase for the first time since 2007. A win would go a long way in getting him back inside the top-12. Infineon hasn't been his best track, but it seems like it's about time the luck broke The Biff's way.
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