How Many Majors Will Tiger Woods Win?

We all know that Tiger Woods is a mere four major wins away from tying Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 career major wins. 

At the young age of 32, Woods is easily on pace to shatter Nicklaus’ record, which has stood for 22 years. But just how far beyond 18 major wins could Woods go before he is done? 

Woods burst onto the professional scene during the 1996 season.  However, his first full season on Tour was not until 1997, when he won his first major. 

In 1997, Tiger Woods won the Masters and made history on several fronts.  He became the first African-American player to win the event, the youngest player to win, and he won by the largest margin of any player to have ever won this prestigious competition.

Since Woods’ history making win at the 1997 Masters, he has gone on to win an additional 13 majors in 11 years. At his current pace, Woods is averaging 1.27 major wins per year. 

With the advancements in equipment and the renowned physical fitness regime Woods undertakes, barring any recurring trouble with his left knee, he should be physically able to compete at or around his current level into his mid-40s. 

If Woods were to continue at his current pace to the age of 45, he would be on pace to win more than 30 majors, as ridiculous as that sentence sounds at this point. 

Perhaps the biggest question is just how long Woods will continue to play. More importantly, how long will he continue to play at his current level of dominance?

In 2008 we have seen just how fragile Woods’ quest to rewrite golf’s record books really is. Back in July, after his miraculous US Open win, Woods announced that he would be having season-ending reconstructive ACL surgery.   

Right now Woods is facing an uncertain future. Will he be able to return to his pre-surgery form? If so, how long will it take him to fully recover? 

Woods will certainly need to modify his swing to take some of the pressure off of his surgically repaired left knee. How long will Woods take to adjust to his new swing, and will he be as consistently dominant after his swing change? 

Woods adjusted his swing back in 2003 and it took him nearly two years to get completely comfortable with the change—a period during which Woods went without a major.  The swing adjustments needed to take the pressure off of his left knee will almost certainly be far more dramatic than the adjustments made back in 2003. 

However, the majority of athletes tend to make a full recover from ACL surgery, so for argument's sake let’s say that Woods is able to fully recover and return to his pre-surgery form. 

Another variable that could come into play is competition, whether that be from one of the up-and-coming young guns on tour or a currently unheard-of high school or college player that will emerge as the game’s next phenom.   

Tiger Woods is the type of player that comes along once in a lifetime or at least once in a generation, so it is difficult to believe that he will face any real competition in the near future.

However, Arnold Palmer thought the same thing before a blond haired, chubby frat boy from Ohio State University arrived and more or less stole the second half of his career.  Palmer would have unquestionably won several more majors during the course of his career had Jack Nicklaus not arrived. 

Another question that cannot be overlooked is whether or not Woods will have the desire to continue competing into his mid-late 40s. 

After Woods surpasses Nicklaus’ 18 career major wins—a record Woods has been striving for his entire life—will he really have the motivation to keep putting in the hard work required to win another 10 to 12 majors? 

After Woods has broken Nicklaus’ record, will he continue to have the drive to put in the endless hours of practice that he currently undertakes to prepare himself for the majors? 

Woods has a daughter and another child on the way.  He also has numerous off-the-course business ventures that are making him 10 times more money than he earns on the golf course. 

Only time will tell, but I don’t think even Tiger Woods could answer that question right now.

We have seen time and time again what a fierce competitor he is.  It would be difficult to believe that Woods could walk away from a game that he has strived his entire life to dominate before he is physically unable to compete anymore.

Over the course of the next 13 to 25 years, any one of a hundred variables could come into play, altering Woods' ability to continue to dominate the PGA Tour.  Still, we have seen time and time again just how resilient he is. 

We thought that he could be hitting a low point back in 2003-2004 when he didn’t win a major for two years, but he came back in 2005 and went on one of the most dominant streaks in the history of the game. 

We thought that there was no way Woods could return from knee surgery to win the US Open back in July, but again he shocked us all by overcoming a torn ACL and broken fibula to win the Open.  

No one knows if Woods will be able to continue at the same pace for the next 15 years.  But if he is able to continue playing at the same level into his mid-40s we could spend the next decade and a half watching a man win 30 majors.