Boston Red Sox: What Choice Does Theo Epstein Have Re-Signing Big Papi?

In retrospect, Theo's decision to exercise David Ortiz's 2011 option looks like a genius move.  If you wanted to, you could rattle off a slew of reasons why he's started out great—Adrian Gonzalez, good HGH (just kidding!), better technique at the plate—but who cares?  He's back and it's a pleasure to watch! 

Now that Papi is back in the saddle again, the next question on my mind is...should he be re-signed? 

Why not? I would.  As you look out on the DH market it's clear David Ortiz is cream of the crop in an otherwise weak market.  Currently it's looking like Papi has the leverage, so if the team wants to continue to get great DH production they have no choice.  Keeping Ortiz around for one to two more years is a smart play, and let's scroll through the reasons why.....

He really is the top-notch DH.

What else is out there?  Bobby Abreu could hit the market if he doesn't hit his vesting option, which is 550-plate appearances this year.  On one hand he's still an OBP machine, but isn't slugging like he used to.  As of this writing he has only two moon shots in 248 at-bats. 

Jack Cust is signed through 2011, but do you want him to DH?  I don't.  His OPS is a very weak .677.  Travis Hafner will be in Cleveland through 2012 and the team has an option for 2013, so he's out of the picture. 

Vlad Guerrero has done a good job reinventing himself as a DH. but he's not producing at quite the same level Ortiz is.  Victor Martinez is off the market.  Really now, who else is there? 

Minimal wear and tear

Ortiz is a full-time DH who doesn't split time with another player.  You don't have to worry about him getting roughed up playing first base.  Last year he played just four games in the field. 

Durability questions

In eight full years with the Red Sox, David Ortiz has played in 128, 150, 159, 151, 149, 109, 150 and 145 games.  The number of games in 2003 is somewhat misleading; it took him a month to wrestle the DH job from Jeremy Giambi.  He's thick for a ballplayer, so there's a chance he might rapidly decline like Mo Vaughn did, but with the exception of 2008 he's shown to be fairly durable. 

Diminished production/Human nature questions

It's unrealistic to think Ortiz is going to stay on his pace.  Injuries and general wear and tear will happen, which will bring his numbers back to earth a little bit.  He's not going to the same DH that he was during his '03 - '07 run but he'll still be very very good.  His OPS for the past three full years are .876, .794 and .899.  

OK, maybe he's a little overpaid for a DH.  Who cares?  The Red Sox aren't pinching pennies and Papi is a sure thing.  We literally have nine years of experience that tells us Ortiz he can play in Boston.  He is the epitome of the OBP/SLG/OPS template the sabermetrics guys strive to get and checks out on the other questions no stat could ever match. 

It's a risk betting on a 35-year-old player to stay healthy, but banking on Papi is one risk Theo should be willing to take. 

I would if I were in his shoes.