Who Will Make It to the BCS Championship Game?

As we get to the final stretch of the season, it is time to look at each of the top teams and talk about what needs to happen for them to make it to the BCSCG.  I'll cover first the undefeated teams, then the stickier one-loss teams.

Alabama

What they need to do: Win. That's about all they need to do.  Obviously close games against lower teams could hurt them, but if they make it to and through the SECC with no losses, book their tickets to Miami.

Chance of making it to the game: VERY HIGH

 

Penn State

What they need to do: Win big. With their schedule, they need some style points to jump Bama.

What they need others to do: Obviously it will help them if either Bama or Texas loses.  In that case, all they have to do is win out.

Chance of making it to the game: HIGH

 

Texas

What they need to do: Just win.  No need for style points.  It is theirs to lose.

Chance of them making it to the game: VERY HIGH

 

Texas Tech

What they need to do: Beat Texas.  That's going to be a difficult task, but if they do and they win the rest of their games, they too can book their tickets to Miami.

Chance of them making it to the game: MED

 

Boise State/Utah

What they need to do: Win out and win big.  To make it to the BCSCG, they will need to win and win big.

What they need others to do: LOSE.  All of the above teams will need to go down for either of them to make it to the big game.

Chance of them making it to the game: LOW.

 

Now for the one-loss teams.  With so many no-loss teams ahead of them, it will take a lot of movement at the top before they can make it to the big game.

Florida/Georgia

What they need to do: Continue to embarrass their SEC opponents.  The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party looms large next week.  Both Georgia and Florida need to win this game and do so with some authority in order to make their case for going to the championship game.  After that, the winner needs to win out and win the SECC, and they should be the highest rated one-loss team.

What they need others to do: They need two of the top three to lose one game, preferably to a lower-ranked team.  If UT drops one and still wins the Big 12 championship game, they have a very strong case to go ahead of the SECC winner, sans an undefeated Bama.  The best case for either of them is that Penn State loses and they beat an undefeated Bama in the SECC.

Chance of them making it to the game: MED.

 

Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.

What they need to do: Win out and win big.  They probably have the least chance to make the big game just by virtue of the fact that they have both lost to Texas.

What they need others to do: Texas needs to lose twice and Texas Tech needs to lose twice.  After that, which is a long shot at best, they need the same thing that Florida, Georgia, and USC need: for all of the one-loss teams to go down.  It will also help them if the SECC team has two losses.

Chance of them making it to the game: LOW.

 

USC

What they need to do: Pile on the points.  Their SOS is pitiful.  They have one quality win against a two-loss Ohio State and did so with OSU missing their best player.

What they need others to do: Like Florida and Georgia, they need those above them to lose.  If Penn State or Texas win out, it would be helpful for the SECC to have two losses. 

Chance of them making it to the game: MED.

 

I don't know what will happen, but it looks like we've got another wild end of the season coming.  Let me know what you think.  Based on how these teams have played to date and what they have left, who do you see in the BCSCG?

Bob