Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Biggest Surprises of the Season so Far
The Philadelphia Phillies, heading into June 14, stand at 40-26.
They currently have the best record in baseball, and hold a two-and-a-half-games lead over the Atlanta Braves in the NL East.
Their wins project to 98 for the season, one more than they amassed during their MLB-best 2010 regular season run.
So, how do we uncover and rank the 10 most surprising developments from the 66 games played so far?
That's easy. We look just a little deeper, and maybe go just a little lighter at the same time.
The Phillies started to evolve into a pitching-first team last season, and that trend has certainly continued and accelerated. Indeed, Phils fans of the last five years or so—who have enjoyed this baseball renaissance—may have known that the team would play more low-scoring contests, but were they prepared to root for a team that would now rank eighth in the league in runs scored (and closer to 13th than they are to sixth)?
On the bright side, they are tied for second in ERA, and figure to finish no worse than the top two.
So, where are the surprises? We expected Roy Halladay to challenge for another Cy Young, and he has not disappointed. We also expected Cole Hamels to be good, but this good?
And while baseball cliché No. 423 tells us that injuries are always a part of the game, did we expect this many?
Please stay tuned and view one man's opinion of the top 10 surprises of the Phillies' season so far—ranked in ascending order of "surprise" rather than "importance."
10. John Mayberry Jr: Speed Demon?
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John Mayberrry Jr. just looks the part of a terrific baseball player and all-around athlete. He's an imposing 6'6", 230 pounds, and you probably know that his dad was a two-time MLB All-Star who clubbed more than 250 home runs. Please see Senior's page on baseball-reference.com.
As for JM Jr., he has not put up huge numbers this year as a part-time player (.231, three homers, 12 RBI), but the big man is third on the team in stolen bases. OK, he has only racked up five of them, but that's not bad for only 45 games and 104 at-bats.
Just consider this: Prior to this season, Mayberry only attempted one steal (in 50 games) and was gunned down.
And as the picture seems to bear out, he has stolen a few of these bases while being covered with shaving cream.
9. Polly's Got Some Pop
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Placido Polanco has been the Phillies' most consistent hitter this season.
We expect the career .303 hitter to hit for average (.309 so far) and we also expect him to get the 85 more hits he needs to reach the 2,000-hit plateau.
But home runs and RBI are usually a luxury for Polanco, who is an excellent No. 2 hitter nonetheless.
While he won't challenge Ryan Howard, Matt Kemp and others for the NL home-run crown, he does have four, which projects to about 10; he had six all of last year.
Not impressed? I'm kind of with you, actually. But Polly is also second on the team with 32 RBI, which projects to 79.
His career high is 72.
Now we're talking.
8. Ryan Madson's an Elite Closer
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Many of you shared the same suspicions that I did.
He can do it in the regular season and in the first few rounds of the playoffs, but not in the champ...sorry, I had a LeBron moment there.
But similarly, we knew that Madson excelled in the eighth, but he did not exactly shine in save opportunities prior to this season.
Let me rephrase that: Madson was putrid, saving only 20 of his first 44 save chances (45 percent).
We knew he had the stuff, but did he have the makeup for a closers' role? The mental/emotional makeup.
If you enjoy seeing your closer save 15 of 16 games (94 percent), then you should be happy to see Madson take the hill in the ninth.
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7. Hey, Wilson Valdez Can Pitch
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We knew Valdez had a slick glove and a great infield gun, but everyone who witnessed the bizarre May 25, 5-4 19-inning bizzaro victory over the Reds, got to see the utility man take the hill for the Phillies. He did not disappoint.
Valdez pitched a hitless top of the 19th and ended up earning a MLB victory in his only game (so far) as a pitcher.
To add to his strange contribution to the game, Valdez also had three hits, a double, committed a rare throwing error and plunked a batter for good measure.
This was all part of his yeoman day of work, as captured well by Dan Gelston of the AP.
A favorite moment of the game, captured in Gelston's piece, was Ryan Howard's reaction to Valdez shaking off backup catcher Dane Sardinha's signals:
"Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard (notes) put his mitt over his face to hide his smile when Valdez shook off his catcher.
“I was like, ‘What is he going to throw? What does he have?”’ Howard said. “It was funny, but he got it done.”
"
Wilson Valdez: infielder, relief pitcher and new folk hero.
6. Michael Stutes Looks Like the Real Deal
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Gotta love that aerial view of Michael Stutes, a reliever (who else is a surprise for this team, this year?), who has pitched quite well so far this season.
The 24-year-old rookie from Oregon State turned a lot of heads in spring training, eventually getting called up to the parent club. Stutes has appeared in 21 games so far, and his ERA is a low 2.41.
In 18.2 innings, he has yielded only 12 hits while fanning 21 batters. His only downside has been his 10 walks, but that aside, he looks every bit like a quality MLB reliever.
5. And...How About That Bastardo?
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The little, 25-year-old Dominican lefty with the great, unfortunate last name has been brilliant thus far this year.
Consider this comparison of his stats from last year and the first part of 2011.
STAT | 2010 | 2011 |
Games | 25 | 28 |
W-L | 2-0 | 3-0 |
Saves/BS | 0/1 | 2/0 |
IP | 18.2 | 25.0 |
Hits | 19 | 11 |
K/BB | 26/9 | 30/12 |
ERA | 4.34 | 1.08 |
WHIP | 1.50 | 0.82 |
Bastardo is also second on the team in appearances, and first in ERA (for any pitcher who has thrown more than three innings).
4. Raul's Hot May
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Through the end of May, one could almost hear the local commentators saying: "They're not saying Ra-uuuul; they're saying, Booooooooooooooo!"
Fans were not very patient with Ibañez, and there was good reason for even his staunchest supporters to think that he couldn't do it anymore.
Ibañez, the 39-year-old Cuban left fielder, was an instant hero when he joined the Phils in 2009, putting up an amazing first half. He faded down the stretch, mostly due to injuries.
Raul rebounded from a bad first half in 2010 to end up with decent numbers (.275 / 16 / 83). although many fans wanted to invoke the signature call of the late, great Harry Kalas and send him "outta here."
Other than his family and his manager (and presumably, his teammates) Ibañez had few supporters left by the time April had ended. At the end of April, the left fielder was batting .161 with one homer, 10 RBI and 10 runs. His (on-base percentage /slugging percentage /OPS) slash line was .247/.218/.465.
When June began, Ibañez had upped his average to .246, and his slash line had been elevated to .297/.431/.728. That is quite a jump in one month's time.
Raul also led the team with seven homers and 19 RBI in May.
For more on Raul and other Phillies' performances during the month of May, please see my article of June 1.
3. Cliff Lee's Leading the Staff...in Walks?!
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It's not really as if Cliff Lee has been very wild this year; it's just that he is wild by his own incredible standards in this department.
Also, one of the beauties of the four aces is that they do not issue many free passes.
So here is the strange sight of Lee leading the whole pitching staff in walks with 22.
Lee has pitched 95 innings, so his walks per nine innings is only 2.08; many pitchers would love to have that ratio.
The walks are also mitigated by his sensational, MLB-best 107 strikeouts. That's a huge number for Cliff, who has never fanned more than 200 batters in a season.
In 2010 (split between Seattle and Texas), Lee fanned 185 batters and walked an impossibly low 18. Again, that's for the whole season.That's historically great, and almost unprecedented.
Compared to last year's 10.27 K/BB, Lee's 4.86 K/BB ratio does not look very good.
But don't worry. Compared to most pitchers—both currently, and in the history of the game—it’s still a very fine ratio.
2. Cole Hamels' Mastery
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If I put a gun to your head and asked you who has been the Phillies' best pitcher this year, who would you say?
And, please make it quick.
Halladay, er, Hamels, er, at times, Lee, time's up!
So far, it's been almost a coin flip between Halladay and Hamels. That's true for two reasons:
1. We take Halladay's brilliance for granted—already.
2. Cole Hamels has been almost equally dazzling this year.
I hesitated to put Hamels on the list, as he is a former All-Star who just happened to bag NLCS and World Series MVP awards in 2008.
Cole came off a very disappointing 2009, and struggled early last year before pitching to a misleading 12-11 record. His ERA was a low 3.06, he struck out 211 batters and only walked 61 in 208.2 innings.
This year, he has been even more brilliant. Cole is 8-2 with a 2.49 ERA and an NL-leading WHIP of 0.95.
Aside from his poor (and abbreviated) opening start at home versus the Mets, Hamels has pitched a quality start in 11 of 12 outings, and his other start (four runs in six innings, and a no-decision) was not all that bad.
1. The Injury Bug
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The Phillies were bit fairly hard by the injury bug in 2010, but it has been even worse for them in 2011.
Rather than list all of the injuries, consider the amount of games that several of the regulars have been able to play this year. The team has played 66 games so far.
All of these players' numbers have been affected by injuries (I also realize that Brian Schneider is a backup, but he has been out since mid-May).
Player | Games Played | Games Pitched |
Domonic Brown | 21 |
|
Carlos Ruiz | 49 |
|
Brian Schneider | 16 |
|
Chase Utley | 18 |
|
Shane Victorino | 49 |
|
Joe Blanton |
| 6 out of expected 13 |
Jose Contreras |
| 15 |
Brad Lidge |
| 0 |
Roy Oswalt |
| 11 out of projected 13
|
With all that, the Phillies still (as of June 14) have the best record in baseball. And perhaps that's the biggest surprise of all.
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