US Open 2011: Why It's Nearly Impossible to Pick a Winner This Year or Any Year

Pick a winner for the 2011 U.S. Open golf championship?

Good luck.

This tournament, more than any other major championship is so very difficult to handicap, so difficult to foresee, so difficult to select a champion on the Monday of tournament week.

OK, raise your hand if you picked Graeme McDowell last year at Pebble Beach,

Going into the 2010 U.S. Open, McDowell finished T18 in 2009, didn't play in 2008, tied for 30th in 2007 was tied for 48th in 2006. So you really saw G-Mac coming at Pebble, right?

Not.

Here's an even better one—Lucas Glover.

Raise your hand if you had Lucas Glover on your short list in 2009?

Impossible. This guy was a total stiff when it came to the U.S. Open. He didn't play in 2008, missed the cut in 2006 and 2007 and didn't get in in 2003, 2004 and 2005.

He tied for 58th last year so might we use the word "fluke"?

Ah yes, Broken Leg Eldrick came through like a true champ in 2008, otherwise, you'd have Rocco Mediate as the U.S. Open champion. Yikes.

How about Angel Cabrera? Prior to his 2007 win, he was T26 in 2006, T35 in 2005 and 16th in 2004.

Right, you saw Angel coming, didn't you?

You had Geoff Ogilvy in 2006 and the immortal Michael Campbell in 2005.

Enough evidence.

So basically Tiger Woods has been the favorite for every U.S. Open since 2005, and he won once. And that means you're batting .166 which means you can't even play catcher for the Tampa Bay Rays.

More often than not, the U.S. Open has produced totally unexpected winners.

Covered six of them from 1976 to 1981. Every year I picked Jack Nicklaus as my favorite and I got:

1976: Jerry Pate; 1977: Hubert Green; 1978: Andy North; 1979: Hale Irwin, 1980:  JACK!!!, finally; 1981: David Graham.

So basically, like everyone picking Tiger Woods, went one for six with Jack.

Just goes to show what happens at this event.

Have a hunch it will be someone no one expects again this year.

That's just the way it's gone this year on the PGA Tour.

It's exactly the way it went at the Masters?

Who out there had Charl Schwartzel?

I thought so.