NBA: 8 Teams from Each Conference Who Will Make the Playoffs in 2012
This season, the quest for the title is over. The Dallas Mavericks are your 2010-2011 NBA champions.
But who is in the best position to win it in 2012?
Besides for the draft, all we have to look forward to in the NBA is the impending lockout. Woohoo. How about we take a look way in to the future: who is going to be going to the playoffs in the 2011-2012 season?
With some top draft picks and some big offseason moves, there are going to be changes in the NBA elite next season.
Let's predict the eight playoff teams from each conference, and whether they are trending upwards or downwards.
[Hop over here to see Adam Spencer's top 10 teams for 2011-2012]
Eastern Conference
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Following their heartbreaking loss to Dallas, how will Miami stack up to the rest of the Eastern conference next season?
Will Chicago be able to maintain the magic under Coach of the Year, Tom Thibodeau, or was that the best they could possibly play?
Which teams will be catapulted into the playoffs because of a strong offseason or a strong draft?
Will Dwight Howard stay?
Let's take a look at who will survive the top heavy Eastern Conference.
8. Philadelphia 76ers
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I really like what I saw with Philadelphia in the postseason, but the potential loss of Andre Iguodala is making me cautious. It seems that the Sixers are intent on shipping the face of their franchise out of town, possibly for Chris Kaman.
Depending on who they trade Iguodala for, they will be looking for different things in the draft. Right now, they are definitely looking for some size to complement Elton Brand. Spencer Hawes is solid, but he is a restricted free agent this summer—let's see if he'll be back.
Either way, Evan Turner looked awesome against the Heat. It really felt like he turned the corner in the playoffs. When I watched him at the beginning of the year, I thought he could be a decent scorer. Watching him in the playoffs, I think he could potentially be a 20-point scorer in this league as early as this coming season.
The Atlantic Division is tough, with both Boston and New York, as well as a scrappy Nets team. I still think the Sixers, even without Iggy, will sneak into that available 8th seed.
Trending: Up. Great young backcourt of Jodie Meeks and Evan Turner has them going in the right direction. They have to keep Thaddeus Young; he was phenomenal against Miami.
7. Milwaukee Bucks
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Last season, Milwaukee's surprise run to the playoffs led to a ton of expectations for the 2010-2011 season. Unfortunately, injuries and a heavy burden proved to be too much for the Bucks.
Although they had their moments, the Bucks slumped to a 35-47 record. This season, I expect that to turn around. Armed with the 10th pick in the draft, the Bucks can maybe get that second scorer they lacked this season.
Regardless of how they fare in the draft, I expect a better year from Brandon Jennings. He has been too inconsistent. He hit a rookie wall, he had a sophomore slump—it's time for him to step up for his team. Andrew Bogut also took a small step backwards this year. Last season, before his elbow injury, he was the driving force behind "Fear the Deer" fever. He's a fantastic defender, and he's still young.
With Bogut, Jennings, Mbah a Moute, Salmons and Draft Pick X, Milwaukee should be good enough to knock Indiana out of their playoff spot.
Trending: Steady. If they have a good draft, this will change.
6. Atlanta Hawks
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Despite the possible departure of sixth-man extraordinaire Jamaal Crawford, Atlanta's core is still in place. They should re-sign Jason Collins for his ability to defend D-12, but the other guys have to go. Despite their young, talented core, Atlanta needs to get much better if they want to compete with the Heat and Bulls down the road.
A healthy Joe Johnson will help this year, and a steady point guard would be helpful, but the Hawks don't have much leeway to make moves. Especially with no help coming in the draft (they don't have a first round draft pick).
This group is good enough to get them into the playoffs in the East but don't expect an extended playoff run. Unless of course, Josh Smith, Al Horford or Joe Johnson makes the leap from good to great (see: Derrick Rose). Then, anything is possible.
Trending: Down. These guys need help, and they aren't going to get it.
5. New York Knicks
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As we saw this year, with Amar'e and Carmelo, anything is possible. I just don't think they have enough help. Yet.
If Chris Paul decides to bring his talents to Manhattan, then it is a different story. But with the lineup the Knicks feature right now? They have no depth.
And Chauncey Billups? He's a good player, and he can win in the playoffs, but he's not getting any younger. I thought Toney Douglas actually played significantly better than him offensively in the playoffs. Now let's see if Douglas can turn up the intensity on the defensive side.
Another variable: will D'Antoni be coaching next season? With Donnie Walsh stepping down, there could be some front office changes, and there are already a million rumors swirling about D'Antoni. Bringing in a defensive coach would be extremely valuable for the Knicks.
Amare and Melo' aren't going to forget how to play offense, but their defense is pitiful. They can't be like the Heat until they learn how to turn up the defensive intensity. I really like the Knicks if they can get a center or PG at the deadline though. Also, don't underestimate a full season of Melo' and Amare together.
Trending: Up. The Melo'/Amar'e duo is going to be a force to be reckoned with for a long time in the Eastern Conference. The Knicks, even without a PG or center, will do more damage next postseason.
4. Boston Celtics
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Listen, I'm the biggest Celtics fan out there, but with no Shaq (retired) and no Nenad Krstic (decided that playing in Russia was better than waiting out the lockout), the Celtics are in a deep pile of you know what. With a healthy Shaq, the C's were 3-0 against the Heat. Without him, they were 1-5.
Needless to say, the Celtics are going to have to do some wheeling and dealing this offseason. They need a center. Badly.
Rondo will be a freak again next year. Allen will be his usual, youthful self. Pierce will be efficient. Garnett will be maniacal for his last hurrah. But who else?
Jeff Green? I think people in Boston are wondering whether he has the fortitude to be a star in this league. Delonte West is great, but he will never be a superstar. Glen Davis is a disaster.
Talking about the future of the Celtics makes me sick.
Trending: Down. Unless they get an athletic big a la Samuel Dalembert, Tyson Chandler (prayer) or Jermaine O'Neal comes back to life (fairytale).
3. Orlando Magic
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They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Not this one. This picture is worth one word.
Tired.
Tired of losing. Tired of carrying the load. Tired of Orlando's front office. Tired of Stan Van Gundy's voice. Howard can't wait to get the heck out of Orlando, unless things turn around in a hurry. If Orlando starts out hot, they have a chance, but I just don't see it. Whatever happens, I don't think he will leave in the middle of the season like Deron Williams.
I think he'll stay so he has his choice next summer. He deserves it. He's a beast.
Orlando is probably going to lose J-Rich, who was actually pretty effective for them this season. With Turkoglu back on board, Jameer running the point and D-12 patrolling the paint, the Magic should be able to steal the three seed from the Celtics.
Trending: Way down. When you lose a player like Dwight Howard, good things don't happen—just ask Cleveland.
2. Chicago Bulls
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Despite all of their injuries this year (Boozer, Noah, etc.), the Bulls still managed to win 60-plus games and take home the No. 1 seed. It didn't matter in the playoffs though, because they didn't step up to the challenge against the determined Heat.
Next year, even with a fully healthy team, I don't think Chicago will be able to replicate this year's success. Miami started off the year badly, and Boston ended the year badly, and they just cut fire at the right time.
The perfect storm, if you will.
Thibodeau will keep them rugged defensively, but offensively they are in dire need of backcourt help for D-Rose. They have two picks at the end of the first round and may be able to get a scorer there (think Nolan Smith or Charles Jenkins), but that won't be enough.
Ultimately, Chicago is trying to win with one great player. That doesn't work anymore.
Trending: Steady. D-Rose is still amazing, and the core is intact. Thibodeau is the best defensive coach in the NBA, and they will always be prepared. Scoring is their top need this offseason.
1. Miami Heat
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After an extremely disappointing finish in the Finals this year, LeBron, Wade and CB4 will be recharged and ready to go in 2012. With a full year of playing time together, and an entire offseason, I can't imagine the Heat not ending up with the No. 1 seed.
They started last season playing worse than the Cavs, and they still almost stole the one seed by the end.
The Heat are just too big, strong, athletic and talented to be stopped by these lesser regular season teams. Once the playoffs roll around, it's a whole new ballgame, but the Big 3 should roll through the regular season.
With regards to players, they must keep Chalmers, who I thought played very well in the Finals. Also, James Jones should be kept, despite his disappearance in the Finals. He is still young, and boy can he knock down the three.
The Heat need a center and a PG who can play big minutes. They don't even have to be that good. They just have to stay in their role and produce. A healthy Udonis Haslem is going to make a gigantic difference by the way.
Trending: Down, until next season starts. LeBron, Wade and Bosh are going to figure it out sooner rather than later.
Western Conference
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Dallas was this year's team of destiny. What a magical playoff run, replete with comebacks, overtime games and the finishing touches of the careers of two of the NBA's best (Kidd and Nowitzki).
But Dallas isn't going back to the title next year. There are too many obstacles. Free agents, age, the Lakers and Thunder. The list goes on.
There is a lot of young talent in the West, who will emerge? Will Mark Jackson make good on his promise to the good people of Oakland?
Let's take a look.
8. Memphis Grizzlies
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The new face of the franchise, Zach Randolph was unstoppable in the playoffs this year. He and Marc Gasol formed an almost immovable force down-low. If it wasn't for Kevin Durant's insane shooting clinics, they would have advanced.
They have to retain Gasol first and foremost. They also need another scorer in the backcourt. I did like watching Memphis, but I also think they may have caught a little lightning in a bottle. Of course Rudy Gay is coming back, which is huge, but we'll see how well that works out (he's going to be taking Randolph's touches—Randolph is much more efficient).
I like Conley, but he isn't exciting. Tony Allen is OK. I think they'll do just enough to get back to the playoffs, I just don't think they'll play a team as bad as this year's Spurs in the first round.
Trending: Up. Gay's return is big, but they can't have a playoff hangover. They have to play like nobody believes in them, otherwise they will underachieve (see: Milwaukee)
7. Utah Jazz
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With the third and 12th picks in this year's NBA draft, the Jazz will get just enough fire power to stick out in the crowded Western Conference.
Already blessed with Devin Harris and Al Jefferson, the Jazz will add an elite talent at No. 3. Brandon Knight seems like a distinct possibility. He or Enes Kanter would immediately make Utah stick out from the group of teams who always seem to be around 40 wins in the West (Houston, Phoenix, New Orleans, etc.).
Obviously, losing Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer hurt this team, but they got lucky, and are able to rebuild on the fly.
Utah should be in contention in 2012 regardless of Andrei Kirilenko's whereabouts.
Trending: Way up. Having the third and 12th pick will do that for you.
6. New Orleans
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Just a gut feeling. Everyone is going to think I'm crazy. I think that I saw a top-five player when I watched Chris Paul carve up the Los Angeles Lakers.
I also know that players get up for their contract years. So despite the potential losses of Carl Landry and David West, I'm going to go way out on a limb and say that some how, some way, CP3 is going to will the Hornets into the playoffs for one more run.
When he has it going, no one can stop him. Everyone knows that it takes two full years to be fully recovered from knee surgeries. The time has arrived.
Unleash the beast.
Trending: Down. When you are owned by the NBA, things are not lookin' good.
5. Portland Trailblazers
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Portland and OKC are the only teams without unrestricted free agents this summer. That is a good thing. With their core intact, and LaMarcus Aldridge emerging into a top five power foward, Portland had really high hopes this postseason.
Unfortunately, they ran into the champs in Round 1. At the time, people were disappointed. In retrospect, they won as many games as Miami did. So it depends how you look at it.
Brandon Roy is a sad story at this point, I would be surprised if he helped at all. Same with Greg Oden. With that said, Portland is going to be looking for size either in the draft (21st pick) or in free agency.
I think Portland will make a little more noise next postseason. Aldridge is just straight beastin' it right now. He looks like a smaller Dwight Howard (except he has post moves).
Trending: Up. I love Aldridge.
4. San Antonio Spurs
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So San Antonio finally fizzled in the playoffs. Doesn't mean they aren't going to perform well in the regular season.
The Spurs front office is too good to screw up such a good core, even one that includes a decrepit old man (Tim Duncan...just kidding, I love Tim Duncan, but his skills have declined like crazy the last two years).
George Hill is solid, Ginobili is Ginobili and Parker is unstoppable when he is healthy. They don't have the size to compete with OKC, LA or Dallas though.
Sounds like another early round exit to me.
Just make sure that you catch a few Spurs games next season, it might be the last time you get to watch one of the 10 best players of all time.
Trending: Down. They are losing Duncan soon, whether to retirement or old age. Either way, they are in trouble.
3. Dallas Mavericks
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Dallas has a lot to do this summer. They have to lock up Barea. They have to decide how much they want to spend on Chandler.
What do you do with Stevenson? Or Peja? What about a guy like the "Custodian" (Brian Cardinal)?
These guys helped you win a title, but you have to keep an eye on the future. I think Barea and Chandler are guys they must sign.
You also don't know what J. Kidd is going to do. Is it possible he retires? He's 38, won his title, what the heck is he playing for now?
As long as they have Dirk, they are going to win 50, but without Chandler, they are going to have very big problems on defense. It's Cuban time.
Trending: On Twitter. Because they are world champs.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
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I think the Lakers will have just enough distractions to remain in second place. A new coach. Trade rumors with Andrew Bynum all season. Who's going to play PG? Derek Fisher again? He's too old—the Lakers brass have got to try and find a younger more athletic guard who can stay in front of guys like CP3, Rondo and Westbrook.
Kobe is going to be impossible this year. You don't think he is going to cause problems? Once Phil Jackson left, Kobe basically became the head coach. Don't you think that will be a distraction?
I don't know about the Lakers. They are definitely going to be there at the end, fighting for the Western Conference crown, I just wonder whether the extracurricular stuff will be too much for them to handle (sort of like this year).
Pau Gasol has to come back strong this year. Andrew Bynum has to stay healthy.
Even though I'm putting them at two, I think the Lakers have to be favored out of the West next season.
Trending: Steady. We'll see how Kobe handles Mike Brown. We'll also see how Bynum handles all the trade rumors.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
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Kevin Durant. Russell Westbrook. The big two.
They really need some scoring help. Down the stretch, the Thunder become way too predictable. They reminded me of the New England Patriots in 2009. It was either a bomb to Moss or a dump-off to Welker. Everyone knew what was coming.
A KD iso jumper, or a Westbrook iso mid-range jumper.
Sam Presti has done a fantastic job of putting together a talented, affordable, young core. He needs one more piece if he wants a title. I know it sounds crazy, and I don't even know if it is feasible, but can they go after Jamaal Crawford? What about a big man to take the pressure off of Perkins and Ibaka late in games?
Despite their insane amounts of talent, I'm convinced they need one more player, I just don't know who it is yet. Just like Tyson Chandler put Dallas over the top, OKC needs a game changer.
Trending: Up. This team was built perfectly. Scotty Brooks is a good coach, KD is the best scorer in the game and Sam Presti is one of the best GM's in the NBA.
Finals Prediction
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As much as it pains me to say it, I think it is going to be Lakers over Heat. Although I guess in that series it's a win-win. Or a lose-lose, depending on how you look at it.
Anyway, I hope you enjoyed! Be sure to comment and let me know what you think.
