NBA Finals: Updated Odds for Every Team to Win a Championship in 2011-12
We just witnessed (that wasn't necessarily a dig at LeBron James) one of the most exciting NBA Finals in recent memory, and I would put it up there with one of the best of my lifetime when Michael Jordan wasn't involved.
For six straight games we saw hard-fought, nose-to-the-grindstone basketball, and in the end, I guess you could say the good guys won.
Sure, there are those out there inclined to disagree with me, but in reality, would you rather see the combination of Jason Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, Peja Stojakovic and Jason Terry (not to mention Brian Cardinal!) get their first ring, or LeBron James and Chris Bosh get their first, with Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem winning their second?
This was Buster Douglas-Mike Tyson, USA-USSR—hell, it was Tonya Harding-Nancy Kerrigan except one of the two actually won the gold.
Now that the 2011 NBA season is out of the way, it's time to start looking forward to other things. Smaller things in comparison, but other things nonetheless, like the draft, the looming lockout, and yes, even next year's Finals.
So before you all go into shock, without having predictions for the 2012 Finals, I've put my bookie hat on (it's one of those little umbrella hats in case you were curious) and put together my own odds for who will be next year's champions.
Detroit Pistons: 1,000-1
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I don't know a lot of things about the Detroit Pistons right now.
I don't know whether or not they will keep their draft pick, and if they do I don't know who they will draft with it. I don't know what they are going to do with Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Ben Gordon or Charlie Villanueva (their aging players who aren't contributing like they used to), and I don't know what they are going to do with Greg Monroe, Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey (their young players who aren't contributing like they should).
There is, however, one thing I do know. Detroit has absolutely no shot at turning into a title-contending team this season. Zero.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 500-1
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Categorize the Cavaliers under "It'll take a miracle."
They do have two top-five picks in this year's draft and a few decent players, plus the luxury of having some trading pieces.
And who knows? Maybe Kyrie Irving turns into a superstar overnight...and maybe I develop a J, try out for the Cavs this summer and start at shooting guard, but neither are very likely.
Charlotte Bobcats: 500-1
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The Bobcats are kind of like the Detroit Pistons in this scenario.
They just traded away their best player at the deadline last season and now they are relying on Stephen Jackson to be "The Man" on this team, so don't count on them making any waves.
They could, however, surprise everyone and make a good pick in the draft in a few weeks for once—now that would be newsworthy.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 500-1
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But wait, Ricky Rubio is coming over right? No more Jonny Flynn has to be good for something.
Well, it is, but it isn't good for much. Rubio has yet to play an NBA game, so excuse me if I'm not as excited and optimistic for his arrival as the rest of the NBA world.
Meanwhile, they have a team that is incapable of playing defense and, with the exception of Kevin Love, incapable of rebounding.
Toronto Raptors: 500-1
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People keep trying to tell me that the Raptors have a chance at making the playoffs next year, claiming they have a good point guard, a few young players ready to make a step up and an All-Star-caliber center.
Those who call Andrea Bargnani an "All-Star," I call "escaped mental patients."
It's near impossible to make it to the playoffs when your center and "star" player is openly against crashing the boards.
Milwaukee Bucks: 400-1
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I'm starting to love Andrew Bogut and they have a nice amount of cap space after Michael Redd's contract expires, but that's about everything nice I can say about Milwaukee.
Otherwise, they rely too much on Brandon Jennings handling the ball on offense, they signed John Salmons to an atrocious contract, Carlos Delfino is a seventh man at best (yet he's starting for them) and I'm not thoroughly convinced that Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is a starting-caliber player either (although he is turning into quite the defender).
Sacramento Kings: 400-1
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Sacramento is a team so pasted together and frustrating that there is no way the Kings make much improvement this year.
They are focused on young players like Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins and Marcus Thornton, yet they rely on three mediocre older guys like Beno Udrih, Samuel Dalembert and Francisco Garcia to make up 60 percent of their starting five.
Washington Wizards: 400-1
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Washington has a more experienced John Wall and a few other nice young players like JaVale McGee, Nick Young and Jordan Crawford, but they are still at least a year out from making the playoffs.
Having guys like Rashard Lewis (overpaid and even he knows it) and Andray Blatche (stat-driven, self-centered, no-defense guy) on your team isn't good for a young team in the early stages of its formation.
Golden State Warriors: 250-1
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Golden State has some wiggle room and will probably end up trading at least one All-Star-caliber player, getting another (hopefully more defensive-minded) All-Star-caliber player in return.
They have a good young core of players, and they have shown that they can produce in the past, they just need to throw it all together and play some defense, and maybe Mark Jackson can get them to do just that.
Utah Jazz: 200-1
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They are without their star point guard of the past and have Andrei Kirilenko leaving as well, yet they still have to pay Al Jefferson and Mehmet Okur, two guys who are turning into borderline stiffs.
They have the draft picks to make some immediate improvements, but they won't be contending for anything this year, and I would be surprised if they turn around and make the playoffs.
Los Angeles Clippers: 150-1
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This will probably be the year when the Clippers make one of three jumps a team has to make to win a title.
Their first jump will be from being an entertaining young team to being an entertaining playoff team. The next two will be entertaining playoff team to elite playoff team and then from elite playoff team to championship team.
They have quite a few young players and will have the cap space to add a few more guys to get better than they were last year.
Phoenix Suns: 150-1
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Phoenix is like the Clippers, but in reverse.
This is probably the last year they have to contend for the playoffs as they are currently put together.
Steve Nash is getting older and if anyone in that organization has a third of a brain they will be trading him at some point this year to help in their rebuilding effort.
Houston Rockets: 100-1
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If there is a candidate for a team to do what the Grizzlies did this year other than next year's Grizzlies, it's the Rockets.
They have a player to run their offense through in Kevin Martin like the Grizzlies had in Rudy Gay until his injury, and the other four players on the court with him are tough as nails and scrap like they're working at a junkyard.
The only thing they are missing is that Zach Randolph-type player who can score with ferocity in the post. Wait, what am I thinking? They have Chase Budinger!
New Jersey Nets: 100-1
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This all depends on what Deron Williams can do for the team and what kind of effort he will give in the final few months of the season with the Nets probably fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot.
They actually had a worse record after the Deron Williams trade, but it takes some time for a new point guard to get into the swing of things. Plus, expect Mikhail Prokhorov's crew to pull out all the stops in acquiring players to get Williams to return next year.
New Orleans Hornets: 100-1
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They have Chris Paul, and last year that's all they needed down the stretch to get into the playoffs.
He willed a ragtag bunch of cast-offs and misfits into the seventh seed and gave the Lakers the first-round fight of their life, but they couldn't pull if off.
Ultimately, they rely too much on Paul, and with David West coming off surgery (and possibly leaving via free agency), it's going to be hard to get past the first round again this year.
Indiana Pacers: 75-1
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Indiana was a surprise by all measures last season.
Nobody (and by nobody I mean me) expected to see Tyler Hansbrough turn into a good player so fast, and with a bench consisting of Jeff Foster, Dahntay Jones, Brandon Rush, Josh McRoberts and Mike Dunleavy, would you really expect much from them?
However, they made their threes when they took them, they played defense and they were just tough enough to throw around an elbow or two.
Philadelphia 76ers: 75-1
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There are a lot of questions surrounding the sixth seed from the East last year.
The biggest one comes from the mystery surrounding Andre Iguodala, who may be on the move. Who can they expect to get in return for him, and can they expect him to be as good as Iggy was last year?
At first glance I say no, as they are looking at getting either Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman in return at the moment, neither of which can match up to Iggy on both ends of the floor.
Denver Nuggets: 75-1
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Denver was persistent last year after the departure of Carmelo Anthony, and at times they actually looked better without him.
Anthony was a halfcourt player who thrived with the ball in his hand, breaking down his opponent until he could get into the lane. The new-look Nuggets thrive on speed, transition and ball movement and try to score 120 a game.
They also have a nice trade piece (Raymond Felton) and could get a halfway decent player in this year's draft.
New York Knicks: 50-1
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New York should have a better season this year, but it should still be looking to the future as well.
The Knicks will have Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire on the floor with a training camp together under their belts, and are speculated to have the possibility of adding Chris Paul, Deron Williams (not likely) or Dwight Howard over the course of the season, which would just be frightening for the rest of the league.
However, I remain unconvinced that New York could make it anywhere near the Finals with Mike D'Antoni as the head coach.
San Antonio Spurs: 50-1
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The Tim Duncan era may be over in San Antonio, but that doesn't mean that Duncan is done altogether.
He is still the smartest big man in the game and can hit that sexy bank shot any time he has a good look. Plus, the Spurs still have Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker.
They may need to get younger for the future, but they still have a good team at the moment.
Atlanta Hawks: 40-1
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The Hawks have been dropping bit by bit in the past three years, but their upset of Orlando in the playoffs this year made people take another look at them.
They will probably end up losing Jamal Crawford this year in free agency, they may deal Josh Smith and who knows if Joe Johnson will rebound after his worst season in years.
However, none of that is a certainty as of right now, so they still have some slight shot at falling into a title.
Orlando Magic: 40-1
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As long as Dwight Howard is there then they have a shot, otherwise they are walking down a road blind.
The Magic almost have to trade Howard at some point this season, but they seem determined at this point to ignore the fact that he has his bags packed and waiting at the door. If they stay stubborn and keep him, and Howard doesn't put on his "LeBron in the playoffs" face, then they could still make waves.
Memphis Grizzlies: 30-1
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I've been up here on the Grizzlies bandwagon for nearly two months now and I'm finally starting to assess where this team could be next year.
Memphis has to re-sign Marc Gasol this offseason—something that I am convinced it can do—but that will probably eat up a large portion of the Grizzlies' cap space, leaving little room to re-up with Shane Battier.
He may openly take less money, as he has said that he loves playing for Memphis, the team he started in the NBA with. If they can get those two guys back they will be dangerous yet again, especially if Rudy Gay stays healthy.
Portland Trail Blazers: 30-1
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Now that Dallas won the title, I think it's a bit easier to assess what happened to the Trail Blazers in the first round.
After Dallas gave up the 23-point lead in Game 4 (the last time they lost consecutive games in these playoffs), they went on a tear and Portland seemed to disintegrate.
Dallas then went on to do the same thing to the Lakers, they took the life out of the Thunder, and watched as the Heat blatantly quit in the final four minutes of Game 6. Dallas just took teams apart in the past two months, frustrated them and didn't let them play their game.
Portland was merely a casualty of that, but the Trail Blazers were still a good team, and I'm convinced that they can come back and have an even better season this year.
Boston Celtics: 20-1
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They're old, they have no depth down low and they got dismantled in the playoffs, but they still have three Hall of Fame-caliber players on their team.
The Celtics may not have looked very good in the playoffs this year, but given an offseason to recuperate coupled with the fact that they may only be playing half a season (saving their "old dude" stamina in the process) with the lockout coming then you have to say they have a decent shot.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 10-1
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Oklahoma City took that second jump this year from entertaining playoff team to elite playoff team. There's only one more logical step the Thunder have to take, but it's the hardest step of them all.
They had some internal problems in the playoffs, like Russell Westbrook turning into a chucker at the worst possible time, but I still think they can solve those problems easily and turn in another impressive season.
Then, when the playoffs roll around, and they have Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka rolling around down low, putting elbows into anyone that bats an eye at them, they may have enough to make that leap to the Finals.
Los Angeles Lakers: 10-1
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The world has no faith in Mike Brown, but I do.
What is it the Lakers were lacking in the Hornets series and more so in the Mavericks series? Pau Gasol was as soft as ever and they had defensive lapses like we have never seen this team have before.
What does Mike Brown do best? He toughens players up, hardens their skin and gets them to play team defense.
Brown has nowhere near the offensive mind that Jackson had, but with a superstar like Kobe Bryant running the team, does he really need to be severely offensive minded?
Dallas Mavericks: 9-1
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The soon-to-be defending champs have a lot of things they are going to have to assess this offseason.
Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler, DeShawn Stevenson and J.J. Barea are all going to be free agents and (I know we talked about this all last year and it didn't matter, but still) Jason Kidd is going to be 39 next season.
If they can put everybody back on the roster the same as they had them this year then I say they can repeat, and even if they don't, they still have Dirk Nowitzki.
Chicago Bulls: 6-1
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We all saw the problems they had in the Eastern Conference finals this year. Carlos Boozer became a defensive liability and they have an obvious weakness at shooting guard.
Other than that, you can't find much to say negative about the Bulls.
Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah will be another year older, more experienced and better. Luol Deng is going to continue to get overlooked, yet will continue to average around 17 points a game and, if anything, their bench will just get better.
Miami Heat: 5-1
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Yeah, they lost and the world rejoiced.
However, how often does a team with just three players carried over from the previous year make the Finals?
It's remarkable that they were able to put it all together and make it to the Finals this year, and despite the fact that LeBron James looked like he was mush in the fourth quarters of games and Chris Bosh may or may not have broken down and cried in the hallway just after Game 6, you have to believe that Miami is the favorite for next season.
Let's just hope we have the same outcome.
Follow me on Twitter if you want to: @JDorsey33. If not then whatever.
