UFC 131 Fight Card Analysis: My Main Card Predictions
For the second year in a row the UFC will invade Vancouver, CA as they present UFC 131: Carwin vs. Dos Santos. The main event will pit Junior Dos Santos against Shane Carwin with the winner earning the right to face current UFC Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez later this year.
Carwin is stepping in for Brock Lesnar, who was felled by a recurrence of the diverticulitis that he first came down with in 2009. While the card loses some of its star power with the loss of Lesnar, the main event still carries the same air of importance due to the No. 1 contendership being up for grabs.
Fans will also see the debut of Kenny Florian as a featherweight as he takes on Diego Nunes in a bout that could see the winner in line to face current UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo somewhere down the line. Demian Maia and Mark Munoz will do battle in a middleweight match-up that could either be a wonderful ground battle or a boring kickboxing match.
Donald Cerrone was originally scheduled to face Mac Danzig, but an injury forced Danzig to the shelf and Cerrone will not face UFC newcomer Vagner Rocha. Two more fighters will be making their UFC debuts as heavyweights Dave Herman will face Jon Olav Einemo.
Out of these five fights, the three main contests are going to be very close and could see either fighter win the bout. Carwin and Dos Santos both have one-punch power that could end the fight quickly, and Florian vs. Nunes will be interesting, especially if Ken-Flo had a difficult time with the weight cut. Maia and Munoz is a tough one to call as well.
UFC 131 Fight Card Analysis: Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha
1 of 5
As much as I can't stand Cerrone and his annoying personality, the man brings it every time he fights. He also seems to be taking huge strides as a fighter as he has looked exceptional in his bouts with Jamie Varner, Chris Horodecki and Paul Kelly.
Cerrone has won 12 of his 14 career victories by submission and will look to grab Rocha and get this fight down to the ground where he can use his long limbs and submit the UFC newcomer. That doesn't mean Cerrone won't stand and bang because he will, he has very good Muay Thai skills and isn't afraid to get hit.
Rocha is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt who has competed for Bellator on two cards and was on the undercard of the Strikeforce: Werdum vs. Fedor event last June. Other than defeating Igor Gracie at Bellator 11, there isn't much known about him.
Experience goes a long way, especially in mixed martial arts. There is something to be said about a fighters ability to tune out 15,000 screaming fans and be able to concentrate on the task at hand. Cerrone has been in big fights before while Rocha hasn't. That is a big edge for Cerrone.
Result: Cerrone via first round submission.
UFC 131 Fight Card Analysis: Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman
2 of 5
To be honest with you, I know very little about Herman and even less than Einemo. The only bout I ever watched of Herman's was when he faced Ron Waterman on an EliteXC card back in 2008. He used some very interesting striking to catch Waterman off guard before earning a TKO victory in the first round. He has compiled a 20-2 record with one of the losses being to Rameau Thierry Sokodjou by DQ in a bout he was dominating.
Herman has never really bothered to do any traditional martial arts training, that is until he suffered his first career loss to Choi Mu Bae in Japan. He is only 26-years-old and with the right training could do some damage in the heavyweight division. It'll be interesting to see how he fares in his UFC debut against a relative unknown fighter in Einemo.
Speaking of Jon Olan Einemo, he has been training with Alistair Overeem and the Golden Glory team. He is currently the only man to have ever defeated Roger Gracie at the ADCC tournament. He is 6-1 in MMA, but hasn't competed since defeating James Thompson back in November of 2006. He is 35-years-old, and taking five years off between fights isn't the smartest move if you want to be competitive.
I have to go with Herman here based on the simple fact that he has fought in this decade.
Result: Herman by second round TKO.
UFC 131 Fight Card Analysis; Demain Maia vs. Mark Munoz
3 of 5
This is the first bout that could go either way in my opinion.
Munoz is a strong technical wrestler who has some serious ground and pound while Maia is an outstanding Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner who has won four Submission of the Night bonuses. He is outstanding off of his back and will capitalize on any mistake that Munoz makes.
If these two decide to stand and trade, Munoz has the advantage in power and can certainly take a punch. Maia isn't all that much of a striker and doesn't have the power that will make Munoz back off. Munoz may see the advantage he has early on and decide to forgo the takedowns and walking into any traps that Maia sets.
Munoz is 5-1 since dropping down to 185 lbs., with the only loss coming via split decision to current No. 1 contender Yushin Okami. A win over Maia could spring Munoz toward the top of the division and a title shot. Maia may need a few more wins unless the championship changes hands and Anderson Silva is out of the picture. No one wants to see that rematch anytime soon.
I am going with Munoz here, although I have gone back and forth a million times.
Result: Munoz via unanimous decision.
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UFC 131 Fight Card Analysis: Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes
4 of 5
This fight comes down to one very simple question: Will the additional 10 pounds effect Florian and hurt his performance? It's not like Florian had any extra body fat that he could afford to lose, so it's not an absurd question to ask. If he was able to handle the cut and rehydrate himself properly then he should be the favorite here.
Nunes made his UFC debut at UFC 125 and defeated former WEC Featherweight Champion Mike Brown by split decision. Considering that Brown was not himself and didn't seem to give a usual Mike Brown performance, it is hard for me to put too much stock into that victory for Nunes. At 16-1 overall, he is 5-1 fighting in the WEC/UFC. His only loss was to LC Davis at WEC 44.
Both fighters are very well rounded, but Florian has the advantage in experience and has fought some of the top lightweight fighters in the world. If he is right then he will win, but it won't be easy. I expect to see a great fight from Florian and Nunes. The winner will put themselves either next in line or in the No. 2 position to fight for the featherweight title currently held by Nunes' teammate Jose Aldo.
Result: Florian via unanimous decision.
UFC 131 Fight Card Analysis: Shane Carwin vs. Junior Dos Santos
5 of 5
Carwin weighed in at 254 lbs. yesterday, while it is only 11 lbs. under the heavyweight limit it is also the lowest he has weighed since his UFC debut against Christian Wellisch at UFC 84 in May of 2008. Will the lighter weight help him with his stamina and add some speed to his game, or will it sap him of some of his power?
I think his power is fine; he has nothing to worry about in that department. He is going to be able to match Dos Santos' speed regardless of how much weight he loses, and we won't know how his body will react to a prolonged fight until he gets put in that position again. He will have to wait for another night to test that theory out.
Dos Santos has been a wrecking machine, knocking his opponents out with thundering strikes. The only man to take the Brazilian the distance was Roy Nelson, who also absorbed a lot of punishment in their fight at UFC 117.
That's what gets me. As tough as Nelson is, Dos Santos had ample opportunity to put him away, but he never did. Nelson was also able to land some shots, the type of shots that will put JDS to sleep if Carwin lands them.
Carwin has a background in wrestling and we have yet to see Dos Santos spend any significant time on the ground, but don't look for that to change tonight. One of these guys is going to sleep, and it's going to happen early.
Don't worry about the time off Carwin has had because he has come back on a few occasions after spending some time on the shelf. As he stated in the interview I conducted with him, the training they do at Grudge is harder than the actual fights they are in.
Carwin is a beast and all it will take is one shot from him to hand Dos Santos his first loss inside the Octagon. It's bound to happen sooner rather than later once those cage doors shut.
Result: Carwin via 1st round knockout.
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