2011 Belmont Stakes Post Positions: How Will the Selections Affect the Field?

The Post Positions Draw for this Saturday’s 143rd running of the Belmont Stakes has been finalized. The post positions along with the horses, trainers and jockeys are as follows:

1.	Master of Hounds	Aidan O’Brien	Garrett Gomez
2.	Stay Thirsty	Todd Pletcher	Javier Castellano
3.	Ruler On Ice	Kelly Breen	Jose Valdivia, Jr.
4.	Santiva	Eddie Kenneally	Shaun Bridgmohan
5.	Brilliant Speed	Tom Albertrani	Joel Rosario
6.	Nehro	Steve Asmussen	Corey Nakatani
7.	Monzon	Ignacio Correas IV	Jose Lezcano
8.	Prime Cut	Neil Howard	Edgar Prado
9.	Animal Kingdom	Graham Motion	John Velazquez
10.	Mucho Macho Man	Kathy Ritvo	Ramón Dominguez
11.	Isn’t He Perfect	Doodnauth Shivmangal	Rajiv Maragh
12.	Shackleford	Dale Romans	Jesus Castañon

To help understand the effects of this on the field of this race it's better when considering the track, the distance and finally the post. Typically, most major tracks are one-mile ovals, like Churchill Downs, Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita.

The Belmont Stakes, however, is very different to those and all others, because Belmont Park, located in Elmont, New York, has an unusual track a-mile-and-a-half (2.4 km) in length. Therefore, its main track is the largest dirt course in all of thoroughbred racing.

The turns and the home stretch are longer at Belmont. So while at the common tracks you would start positioning before entering the final turn, the last turn is the place to gain position and then make your move in the home stretch. This is where we have seen plenty of horses enter the final furlong up front, only to be caught at or just before the wire.

While the inside rail could present major problems in the Derby or the Preakness, it has been no problem in Belmont outcomes. History says that post position No. 1 has been the most successful, with a total of 23 winners. Also, with the horses running a-mile-and-a-half, every little bit of ground they can save is golden, and the inside rail is the place to do just that.

The next best post positions for producing winners at the Belmont Stakes are Nos. 3 and 5, which have produced 13 winners each. Then follows the No. 7 post with 12 wins, the No. 2 post with 11, the No. 4 post with nine, the No. 6 post with seven, the No. 8 post six wins, the No. 9 post with four wins, the No. 10 post with two and finally the No. 11 post with two wins.

Two historical facts about the Belmont Stakes should be considered, though. Firstly, the fields are normally smaller, but not the case this year. Second, traffic should not be a problem, taking into account the additional distance.

With Shackleford drawing the outside post, trainer Dale Romans indicated that the horse “might have to be sent a little bit more at the start,” which already changes the game plan they might have had if it would have been from the middle to the inside.

For the favorite, Animal Kingdom, trainer Graham Motion, seemed pleased with the ninth post and said that due to the nature of the race, Animal Kingdom “will be naturally closer. It’s not going to take him out of his game.”

There are two horses that seemed to be benefited from this draw, Master of Hounds and Stay Thirsty. Master of Hounds, with money rider Garrett Gomez, will have the rail to save ground and that could be a difference more than in the troubled Derby trip he had. Plus, he should be in front of Animal Kingdom during the race, giving him another edge.

Stay Thirsty, could be the dark horse here, and is benefited from the post position. Here is a horse that works incredibly well and who has been a disappointment of late. This horse has very nice initial speed and with the post position inside, he should go to the front and try to stretch it out.

Stay Thirsty is a son of Bernardini, and with Javier Castellano aboard, the lead could very well be the strategy with him. Everything else has failed so far, so why not?

The race, however, now sets up more and more for Animal Kingdom, who, with John Velazquez, should be able to watch the race unfold in front of him and make the move avoiding traffic and in a timely matter. This time the distance is more than enough to catch the one up front.