MLB Draft 2011: Pittsburgh Pirates to Select UCLA Right-Hander Gerrit Cole

News leaked this morning that the Pittsburgh Pirates will select UCLA Bruins right-hander Gerrit Cole with the first overall pick in tonight's MLB Draft.  Cole will be taken ahead of Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon, Virginia southpaw Danny Hultzen, high school pitcher Dylan Bundy, high school outfielder Bubba Starling, and high school shortstop Francisco Lindor.  Rendon has been clamored for by many fans, but his medical situation has clouded his draft stock and likely contributed to the Pirates' selection of Cole. 

There's no debating Cole's upside; he has better stuff (a fastball that has touched 101 mph, a power changeup and biting slider) than any other pitcher in the draft, and at 6'4'' and around 220 pounds, he has the projectable frame of a Josh Johnson, Felix Hernandez or Michael Pineda.  

His arm is vastly superior to that of Hultzen, and he's further along in his development and more polished than Bundy.  His array of pitches is better than either Bundy's or Hultzen's.   

Strangely, Cole's advanced arsenal hasn't always translated into success at UCLA. After striking out 11 batters per nine innings in his first two years in college, Cole punched out only about a batter per inning this year as a junior.  Even when he's getting strikeouts, he's been giving up hits and walking more batters than anybody would have expected.  He's not even in the top 50 in Division I strikeouts this season, and fellow Bruin right-hander Trevor Bauer has out-shined him in almost every way imaginable.  

In short, Cole's astonishing talent has not been met by equally astonishing results.  He should be dominating hitters, but he's not.  Why?

There are several possibilities as to why Cole has seen his strikeouts drop and his ERA rise. His control could, perhaps, be too good, causing him to catch more plate than he'd like, and thus allowing hitters to square the ball up.

Another idea is that Cole's wide-open delivery allows the batter to see the ball too clearly out of his hand. His pitching motion carries astonishingly little deception, so batters can identify pitches quickly. That offsets the pure nastiness of Cole's arm.  

Promising for Cole, both of those issues seem correctable.  There have been no reports of injury to his right arm or any drop in his velocity, so none of Cole's problems this year seem irreversible with the proper instruction.  

Of course, pitchers present an inherent risk to teams that hitters do not.  The first time Cole grabs in pain for his throwing elbow or grimaces during his follow-through, his career will take a significant downturn.  College hitters—even ones with medical histories as complicated as Rendon's—are generally much safer bets to remain on the field than pitchers.  

In that sense, Cole represents a huge risk.  He'll likely become the second or third highest-paid draft pick in Major League history, as his agent, Scott Boras, will ensure.  

The Pirates could be getting a Justin Verlander—another college righty with a mediocre ERA but tremendous talent and size as of his junior year in college—or they could be getting a Luke Hochevar type of pitcher.  

Pittsburgh scouting director Greg Smith was with the Tigers when they took Verlander second overall in 2004. The pick was fairly controversial; Jered Weaver, Jeff Niemann and Phillip Humber were also considered by many to be more worth the pick, especially considering that Verlander had been underwhelming as a junior.  Nonetheless, Smith trusted his organization's ability to harness Verlander's golden right arm and turn it into a dominant one for the Tigers.

He'll make a similar decision tonight, when the Pirates officially take Cole first overall.