Tiger Woods and 10 Other Likely Winners at the US Open at Congressional CC

Kathy Bissell

Most U.S. Opens have been won by players from the United States.  Historically you could count on it, even wager on it. 

However, in the last 17 years, there have been two champions from South Africa,  Ernie Els and Retief Goosen (both winning twice); one from Australia, Geoff Ogilvy; one from New Zealand, Michael Campbell; one from Argentina, Angel Cabrera; and one from Northern Ireland, defending champ Graeme McDowell. 

Since Els’ breakthrough victory in 1994 at Oakmont, a US professional has won just nine times, while a foreign-born player has won eight.  Compare that to the previous 50 years when the only non-American winner was Tony Jacklin. 

Times, like the world rankings, have changed. 

After his victory last year, Graeme McDowell looked at the inscriptions on the trophy and said,” …to join the names, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Tom Kite, Tiger Woods, me…. wow. I'm not quite sure if I belong in that list, but, hey, I'm there now.”

As McDowell realized in that moment, the time has come to toss aside the idea that the US Open is won by golfer from the US, just as The Open Championship is no longer dominated by those from Great Britain.     

But to figure out who will win, we must look to the golf course, Congressional CC, which was home to the Tiger Woods’ AT&T National tournament in 2008 and 2009, to the Kemper Open from 1979-1985 and to the US Open in 1964 and 1997. Looking at those winners is instructive.  

Anthony Kim,  K.J. Choi and Tiger Woods all won Woods’ tournament when it was at Congressional.  Ken Venturi and Ernie Els were the last two US Open winners at the club. 

In the most recent playing, the final hole was a par three, but, though exciting, that will not be repeated this year.

Golfers from the Kemper Open era have migrated to the Champions Tour, but the list of who won there shows that any type of player, from short-hitting John Mahaffey to long-hitting Fred Couples and Greg Norman can win.

But with the names of Mahaffey, Craig Stadler, Couples, Norman and Bill Glasson on that old trophy, a longer hitter appears to do better than a medium of short hitter.

In those days, the PGA Tour only reported the first 50 places in driving distance, and Mahaffey was no where to be found, nor was Craig Stadler. 

Couples was in the top five or top ten as were Greg Norman, and Bill Glasson. In his day, most agreed that Greg Norman was the best long driver of the golf ball they had seen.     

So, who today has those skills?  Or who today can overcome rough?  Well, since the most recent playing at Oakmont CC and Phil Mickelson’s wrist injury, there has been a kinder, more sensible, USGA in course set up.

They created a first cut and then a second cut of rough.  Most contenders end up in that first cut these days, not the second. 

Any player would rather be in the gallery with trampled grass and trees than in the second cut, which Bubba Watson explained after playing a drive to a location beyond the gallery and over the trees at New Orleans this year because he knew he had a shot from there to the green.    

Heat will be an issue because the southeastern US has been experiencing a ridiculously long, unusually hot stretch of weather, so those who play most of the time in Europe and are used to sweaters and vests all the time will have some acclimating to do. 

Perhaps that is why Westwood is headed to Memphis this week.  Regarding the weather, it’s something about a high pressure system that seems stuck in the wrong place and the jet stream going north instead of straight across the country. 

Note to Jet Stream, give us all a break here.  Bring some cold air down from Canada.  Ken Venturi nearly died playing 36 holes on Saturday at Congressional back in the days when they had a 36-hole finish for the championship.  His condition pretty much ended the 36- hole finales, and the USGA went to four days.

So who’s a long, straight driver, young enough or in good enough shape to withstand uncommon heat for six days, strong enough to hit out of rough, and has a great putter? 

We’re going to assume that most professional golfers have some kind of short game.  Not everyone is in the Mickelson and Els and Goosen category, but there are plenty of good short game guys.

If he had been playing at all, you’d say damn the rough, it’s Tiger Woods again. But he hasn’t.  He’s been in boot camp, the kind where your foot is in a boot. 

Yet he finished well at The Masters on no practice, playing with strained leg tendons and ligaments.  Top ten, if he tees it up. If he can walk the course, which is somewhat hilly, he’ll play.

One key to remember was from Phil Mickelson who said recently, “… At The Players, the US Open, British, PGA, the importance off the tee is more accuracy than it is distance.  At Augusta it's about distance.”

If not the injured Tiger clawing his way toward the top, who?  

There’s a gaggle of good golfers, starting with Luke Donald and Lee Westwood followed by Charl Schwartzel, and Jason Day, all of whom have shown good form this spring. Steve Stricker, after his performance at Muirfield Village, has to be a contender, if not a winner.

Westwood may be the best, consistently straight driver in the game today.  Donald and Stricker can find trouble off the fairway, but they make up for it with great putting.   

Schwartzel was a clinic in perfection the last round at The Masters.  Birdie-birdie- birdie finish?  Has it ever been done before?  

K.J. Choi may be poised to take a US Open after his victory at The Players on a very demanding golf course, and he won at Congressional in the AT&T National with Steve Stricker as runner-up.  That would be another huge accomplishment for Korean golf.

However, there are other candidates.  Matt Kuchar is not long, but he is straight and a good putter. Ricky Barnes has a thing for USGA events.  

In the long and strong category, Dustin Johnson was a couple of bad decisions away from two majors in 2010.  Maybe having Joe LaCava on the bag will help with that aspect of his game.

For sure LaCava’s used to talking over shots with his former boss, Fred Couples.  La Cava is DJ’s new 15th club.       

Finally, the last time Northeast Florida was on fire, literally, Jim Furyk won a US Open. So if there’s a repeat in him, maybe the smoldering trees and brush along I-95 and in the Okeefenokee Swamp across the border in Georgia will fire Furyk up for another major championship.

Something has to cool down the embers before half the state expires from smoke inhalation. A US Open victory would do it.    

There you have it, Tiger Woods and 10 others most likely to come home with a US Open trophy in 2011.