Houston Texans: What is a Reasonable Expectation for J.J. Watt's Rookie Season?

Not but five minutes after J.J. Watt was selected by the Houston Texans in the first round of this year's draft, analysts and fans began to breathlessly give their opinion on how great (or not great) J.J. Watt was going to be.

I can't blame them. After all, it's an analyst's job to do this and for fans, it's part of the fun of the draft. It's just that generally their knee-jerk opinion is too extreme one way or the other.

The people that love the pick see Watt as an immediate starter as a defensive tackle/defensive end hybrid pass rusher. They feel that he will allow the disappointing Amobi Okoye to become expendable and that he will take pressure off of every other player on the defense.

Those that hate the pick see Watt as another high priced player on a defensive line full of high priced players that haven't produced. He doesn't appear to be particularly athletic or fast and they wonder why someone like Watt didn't get more national media attention if he is really that good.

There is also some fear that he is the second coming of Amobi Okoye. When Okoye was drafted, we were told that he would swing between defensive tackle and defensive end and that he would solve a lot of the Texans' pass rush issues. It has now been four years and we are still waiting.

Let me be clear on this. J.J. Watt is no Amobi Okoye. From the very beginning, Okoye was billed as a long term project. He only began playing football as a sophomore in high school. He signed with the University of Louisville football program at the age of 15.

He only had one year as a starter for the Cardinals, a team not known for stout defenses. When he was drafted, he was only 19 years old. That made him the youngest player ever drafted. He was nowhere near a polished product.

Watt on the other hand is a much more known commodity. After playing one year at Central Michigan, he transferred to Wisconsin, where he became a two year starter on one of the better defenses in the entire country. He is a high-energy, high-motor player (not to say that Okoye doesn't play hard) who is as close to a polish product as there was at the position in the draft.

I might could hear an argument that his superstar potential isn't very high, but you can't argue against the fact that his bust potential is very low. Sometimes, that's more important.

So where, then, is the happy medium on expectation for Watt?

The short answer is somewhere in between the two extremes. The longer answer is why I'm here.

J.J. Watt will not challenge for the Defensive Rookie of the Year. That has as much to do with the other incredible athletes that were drafted with him as it does with any perceived lack of talent in J.J. Watt.

He will also not be a perennial Pro Bowl player. He simply isn't a freakish enough athlete to be the type of guy that spends every Sunday blowing past offensive tackles and racking up huge sack numbers. The sack numbers will be there for him, but that isn't his sole purpose.

What Watt will give you is someone that opposing defenses will always have to account for. His motor stays in top gear at all times. Offensive lineman will have to stay with him, even after they think they have successfully pushed him out of the play. Having to constantly track Watt will allow for one fewer offensive lineman to block the rest of the Texans pass rushers.

His presence will also take a little bit of pressure off of every other defensive player. Brian Cushing won't have to blitz so much anymore. He will be able to do what he does best and that's freelance based on where the play goes. When he does blitz, they will be more effective.

Role players like Jesse Nading and Tim Bulman won't have to play so many snaps. Both guys are competent pass rushers in spurts, but when they are on the field for as many snaps as a guy like Mario Williams, you are going to get diminished returns.

Mario Williams probably stands to gain the most. It would be tough for him to give the Texans much more output. He already racks up sacks by the dozen, but J.J. Watt having an impact would allow him to get those sacks with much less effort and fatigue on his part.

Heck, even Amobi Okoye stands to gain from Watt playing well. With Watt taking the majority of the snaps he had been taking, Amobi can be used in situations that best suit him. Who knows? Okoye might flourish if he was allowed to just come in and rush the passer in third down situations rather than being a three down defensive lineman.

Watt won't be a superstar at the defensive end position like Julius Peppers or Dwight Freeney. Anyone who thinks he will be should temper their expectations.

Watt also won't be a complete bust. Anyone who plays as hard as he does and was as successful as he was at a school like Wisconsin will have some level of success.

Watt will end up with somewhere between five and eight sacks. He will have just as many tackles for loss when he runs down running backs in the backfield. Statistics for Mario Williams and Brian Cushing will increase. The efficiency of every defensive player will increase.

With a little help from an improved secondary, J.J. Watt will have the Texans defense back to respectability and the Texans team as a whole looking at the playoffs.