NHL Politics Determine Expansion/Relocation

Way back in October 2009, I predicted that Quebec City would be Canada's seventh NHL team. Instead, Winnipeg has usurped that role. 

How did my calculations go wrong?

The one solid thing that Winnipeg had going for them, was that Winnipeg's investors, Mark Chipman and Dave Thomson are indisputably solid financial owners. However so too are Quebecor, Jim Balsillie, and probably a future Hartford owner.

Everything else about Winnipeg was inferior to its three major competitors: Quebec, Hartford, and Hamilton.

All three currently have arenas that are equal or larger than Winnipeg's MTS Center.  Furthermore, Hamilton was willing to spend the money to upgrade its arena to 18,500 and can boast a maximum of 200 luxury boxes to Winnipeg's 62.

Quebec will be building a new $400 million, 18,000+ arena that will be ready by 2015.  Meanwhile an expansion/relocation team could easily survive in the old Colisee until the new facility is built.

All three competitors have better markets than Winnipeg.

Winnipeg can draw fans from its native Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and northern Ontario but that is peanut size in comparison to what its rivals can muster.

The southern Ontario market is a goldmine.  It has been estimated that a Hamilton franchise could become the third most valuable in the NHL.

Quebec has the whole eastern half of its province, plus the entire Maritimes as well to do its business.

Hartford has the whole of Connecticut and probably most of Rhode Island, including Providence, to sell its product.

Winnipeg is also inferior in terms of potential natural rivals.  The Jets will have some rivalry with its three western Canadian neighbors, Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver, and possibly with Minnesota as well.

But they won't be as intense as Hamilton-Toronto-Buffalo, Hartford-Boston, or Quebec-Montreal.

So with all due respect to Chipman and Thomson, who will be fine NHL owners, why would the NHL choose the worst of four choices and make my Quebec prediction fall by the wayside?

The answer is the behind-the-scenes figure of Detroit Red Wings owner, Mike Ilitch.

As owner of one of the "original six" teams, Ilitch and Detroit have a lot of clout in the NHL boardroom.

When the latest recession struck and made it difficult for fans in "Hockeytown" to post the usual sellout at the Joe Louis Arena, Ilitch stepped up his campaign to get Detroit moved from the western conference to the east.

Detroit, being in the Eastern Standard Time Zone, paid huge penalties each year for being stuck in the western conference.

It cost far more in airfare to play games on the west coast, especially at playoff time. Playing more games in the far west also hurt television ratings and thus, television revenue. Finally, except for Chicago, Detroit never had many western rivals to ignite local interest.

Ilitch has been lobbying for a franchise shift for years.  Commissioner Gary Bettman and the Board of Governors had had enough and when Winnipeg appeared, it gave them the chance to get Ilitch off their backs for good.

So Bettman did the exact opposite of what he had been doing for years.

He went to Winnipeg and told the locals that their new 15,000-seat arena was NHL acceptable, while at the same time he told Quebec and Hartford's mayors that their old 15,000 seat arenas were not, and to build new larger ones. Hamilton's 17,000-seat arena was stigmatized under the name Balsillie.

Bettman also dropped his fear that any franchise shift to Canada would jeopardize his attempts to get a rich American television contract.

He also abandoned the main principle he has followed since he became NHL Commissioner regarding expansion and relocation; that to make hockey an American "national sport,, worthy of 'big 4'" status and television revenue, new franchises had to be established in non-traditional hockey cities in the United States.

There would be no fight to the death to save the larger and better Atlanta market like what is going on to preserve the even worse money-losing Phoenix.  In this case, the NHL meekly surrendered.

So much for Bettman's statements about the horrors of having to shift a franchise.  Anything to get nagging Mike off his back. Except for the selection of Thomson and Chipman as owners, there has been little wise, long-term thinking in this decision.

Winnipeg lost the Jets because of shaky ownership, high salary costs, a low Canadian dollar, and a small arena. While the first factor is likely dead, the other three factors could occur again.  In particular, the small arena could become an albatross very quickly.

Winnipeg was also very fortunate that no new local investors (suckers?) appeared to save the Thrashers. They were also fortunate that no rival western American city with a bigger market and a better arena made a bid.

If Kansas City had sold out its Islander exhibition game; if Houston, and Las Vegas, reportedly markets that the NHL longs to be in, had made bids; if any other decently sized American western city with competent investors, with or promising to build an NHL-size arena had tried for the Thrashers, Winnipeg might not have got them so easily, despite Thomson and Chipman.

As it is, the NHL still can't get anybody to own and keep the Coyotes in Phoenix.

Meanwhile, if I'm Quebec, Hamilton, or Hartford, I'd hire a rich shrew. If all it takes is someone with clout who keeps nagging like Mike Ilitch to get Bettman and the Board to change the entire NHL policy of the past 20 years, get the best possible.

Every man knows the best way to drive a man up the wall, long for peace and quiet, is a persistently nagging woman.

Get an ugly, loud, shrill one with a harsh voice to drive Bettman and his board crazy, who keeps harping over and over endlessly that Hamilton, Hartford and Quebec should have franchises now.

Somebody like Margaret Hamilton.

Don't forget to honor them on Mother's Day.