2011 NFL Predictions: 50 Things You Absolutely Won't See This Season
With a lockout in place, there is little to discuss this summer. No trades, no free agency and little draft-related insight to share until the college football seasons starts.
What we can look at is the potential of an NFL season and lay down our predictions for what will and will not happen during the 2011-2012 NFL season.
Here is our take on 50 things that will absolutely not happen this season.
50. Houston Texans Missing the Playoffs
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The Houston Texans are primed and ready for a big season in 2011.
The offensive trio of Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson make their ability to score points among the best in the NFL. The addition of Wade Phillips to coach the defense, as well as three early draft choices to bolster the talent there, were major additions.
Houston will need to pick up secondary help via free agency and perhaps another wide receiver, but we are firm believers in Houston making its first-ever playoff appearance in 2011.
49. Tiki Barber on an NFL Roster
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Tiki Barber hasn't touched a football since the 2007 Pro Bowl, and now he wants to come back to the NFL?
We don't see it happening.
Barber may get a courtesy invite to training camp based on his 10,000-yard career, but he will not make it through camp without an injury or simply just quitting.
Barber's sole intention here is to generate media interest in his name. Sadly, it's working.
48. A Repeat of Super Bowl 45
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Super Bowl 45 was a great game, featuring two impressive teams with the talent to make multiple Super Bowl appearances in the next five years.
Just don't expect to see them both in Super Bowl 46.
Not since the Dallas Cowboys defeated the Buffalo Bills in 1993 and 1994 have the same two teams played in back-to-back Super Bowls.
As good as the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers are, they won't be sharing the stage in Indianapolis for Super Bowl 46.
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47. Bill Belichick in GQ Magazine
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Few people respect Bill Belichick as much as I feel that I do. That said, realistically, the man cannot dress. At all.
Belichick has made the cut-off sleeves cool (again?). He also makes me wish I could have "MM" embroidered on all of my shirts.
Belichick is one heck of a coach; he just needs a personal shopper.
46. Rex Ryan in Men's Health Magazine
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Rex Ryan is proving himself to be one of the better coaches in the NFL, but he's also just hard to look at.
Ryan famously underwent lap-band surgery in March of 2010 in an effort to lose weight, and we commend his 65-lb loss to date.
He's still an unsightly beast on the sidelines.
45. Offensive Lines Stopping the Detroit Lions
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Kyle Vanden Bosch. Ndamukong Suh. Nick Fairley. Cliff Avril.
Unstoppable.
The Detroit Lions are for real, folks. And so is that defensive line.
Good luck, NFC North offensive lines. You will have your hands full this year. The Lions defensive line may be good enough to cover up a back seven that will be weak without additions through free agency.
44. A Lack of Urban Meyer to the NFL Talk
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One thing that you won't see this NFL season is a lack of talk from national writers about the potential of former Florida head coach Urban Meyer coming to the NFL.
But it will be just that: talk.
Meyer has said "no thanks" to the NFL before, and he'll do it again. A coach with a heart condition has no place in the NFL—where the work days are on average 15 hours and there are no days off.
Meyer is a great fit for college football, and that's where he should stay.
43. The San Diego Chargers in the Playoffs
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The San Diego Chargers remain one of the most talented rosters in the NFL on paper. When the actual games begin, the Chargers consistently start off slow and then struggle to catch up.
As the AFC West improves, it will be harder for the Chargers to fall behind early and hope to make the playoffs.
That's precisely what happened in 2010, and it will happen again in 2011.
San Diego's early schedule is brutal, with two of the first four games against division winners Kansas City and New England. A three-week stretch against the New York Jets, Kansas City and Green Bay will also put the Chargers up against the wall.
An 8-8 season would be considered good in San Diego this year, where the Chargers are not as talented and face a much harder schedule.
42. The Dallas Cowboys in the Playoffs
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Much like the San Diego Chargers, the Dallas Cowboys have a talented roster with star players at almost every position.
What they do not have is the chemistry and trust needed to win late in the season.
Tony Romo, for all his publicity, is still an average quarterback and is also coming off a major injury in 2010. The four-headed running back group will prevent any one back from getting in a rhythm and the wide receivers are, quite frankly, overrated.
Dallas is also getting old on defense, something even Rob Ryan can't fix.
41. The New Orleans Saints in the Playoffs
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A disclaimer before the hate mail comes in: I love Drew Brees. I have been a fan since he was playing high school ball in Texas, and I hoped my Longhorns would recruit him.
Now that we've said that, New Orleans will regress in 2011.
Brees will bounce back from an interception-filled 2010, but the supporting cast is where the team will take a hit.
If New Orleans cannot re-sign Jermon Bushrod and Carl Nicks, things will get ugly up front. They must also get faster at linebacker and safety before they can stop the Falcons and Buccaneers.
40. Josh Freeman Missing the Playoffs
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Who will be the team that knocks New Orleans out of the playoff picture in 2011?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and quarterback Josh Freeman.
A 10-6 record in 2010 was just the beginning. This is a talented, exciting team on the rise.
The additions of Adrian Clayborn, Da'Quan Bowers and a healthy Brian Price will only make the defense better. Another season together on offense will have Freeman, LaGarrette Blount and Mike Williams looking like All-Stars.
39. Donovan McNabb as a Starting Quarterback
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Donovan McNabb's days as a starting quarterback are over.
McNabb's last stand in Washington was disappointing enough that other NFL teams will view the former Pro Bowler as a backup or spot-duty quarterback only.
We would also like to mention that it's possible McNabb will just retire instead of accepting a No. 2 spot behind a young quarterback in Minnesota or Tennessee.
Either way—Donovan McNabb is done starting in the NFL.
38. Ryan Grant Leading the Packers in Rushing
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Much is being made of Ryan Grant's return to the Green Bay Packers after missing the 2010 season with injury.
While Grant will be a welcome return on a loaded offense, he will have to accept a reduced role in Green Bay.
The Packers are comfortable with James Starks, and we hear the coaches love the potential of Alex Green, a rookie from Hawaii.
Grant's return will help in the playoffs, where his experience will be invaluable, but during the regular season, he will not be asked to carry the load alone in Green Bay.
37. Norv Turner Coaching All Season in San Diego
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We mentioned before that an 8-8 record is the best we expect for the Chargers this season. Should that be the case, general manager A.J. Smith will not take the blame—head coach Norv Turner will.
Turner's job is to have the talent that Smith assembles ready to play each week. The notoriously slow starts in San Diego have put Turner on the hot seat previously.
One more bad start will mean the end of the Turner-era in San Diego.
36. Jon Gruden Coaching at Ohio State
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With every new job opening in the NFL and at major colleges, we expect to hear Jon Gruden's name linked to the position.
And we expect Gruden to continue enjoying himself on ESPN until the perfect job becomes available.
That job is not the head football coach at Ohio State.
Gruden would not leave the millions he is making at ESPN for a bad situation at Ohio State. Gruden in that scenario would be limited by NCAA sanctions and possible bad publicity surrounding the school after the resignation of Jim Tressel.
35. Tom Brady Choking in the Playoffs
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Tom Brady's play in the playoffs has not been the same since the Patriots loss to the New York Giants in Super Bowl 42.
While Brady has become known for superb regular-season play and average playoff performances, his 2011 season will change all of that.
Brady has a better group around him on offense and a defense that can hold down a talented offensive team.
The 2011 Patriots are our early pick for Super Bowl 46 champions.
34. 16 Starts for Matthew Stafford
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In two seasons as the starting quarterback for the Detroit Lions, Matthew Stafford has 13 starts in 32 possible games.
Those other 19 games were all missed with injury.
Stafford has the talent to be one of the brightest young quarterbacks in the NFL if he could stay healthy.
Unfortunately, we do not expect that to happen with the Lions' core offensive line all returning.
33. Cheers for Commissioner Roger Goodell
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When commissioner Roger Goodell tours the NFL games this season, he will not be met with cheers and well-wishes.
For those who saw the opening of the NFL draft—that's what we expect from fans and maybe even players when Goodell is making his rounds.
32. More Than Three Losses by the Green Bay Packers
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Despite playing in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL and despite a huge target on their backs as the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Green Bay Packers will do something that few Super Bowl winners are able to do: Improve their record the next year.
Green Bay finished the 2010 season with a 10-6 record but cruised to a Super Bowl win. In 2011, we like the Packers to finish 13-3.
31. A Veteran on the Tampa Bay Defensive Line
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With second-year players Brian Price and Gerald McCoy at defensive tackle and rookies Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers coming in to anchor at defensive end, the Buccaneers will feature four starters in their first two years of NFL play.
Tampa has a nice thing going on the defensive line.
30. A Rookie Quarterback with Eight Wins
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Cam Newton. Jake Locker. Blaine Gabbert. Christian Ponder. Andy Dalton. Colin Kaepernick.
Six quarterbacks were drafted in the first two rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft, but none of those six will find themselves with eight wins or more in 2011.
Newton, Locker and Ponder are likely to start, and there's a chance Dalton will be the Week 1 starter, but none of these promising young players will see a winning record in 2011.
29. Aqib Talib in Tampa Bay
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Aqib Talib was indicted last week on federal grand jury charges related to a gun being shot at his sister's boyfriend.
Talib may spend the 2011 season in jail, but we feel certain he will not spend it in Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers have a young roster and need to make an example that, no matter how talented you are, the law cannot be broken.
Talib will be looking for employment soon after the lockout ends.
28. Antonio Cromartie in a New York Jets Uniform
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Free-agent cornerback Antonio Cromartie has proven this offseason that he is not loyal to his team, his teammates or the player's union.
Antonio Cromartie is loyal to Antonio Cromartie. And he needs to get paid.
Cromartie is the type of player who will leave New York for the highest bidder.
We would bet on Dallas or Houston being contenders.
27. Jay Cutler Quitting on His Team
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Jay Cutler received heat for "quitting" on his team during the NFC championship game when he sprained his MCL after a hard hit.
Cutler may or may not have been injured. We believe he was, but the general feeling was that Cutler quit on his team.
That won't happen in 2011.
Cutler will be on guard to make sure that his on-field attitude, demeanor and play back up the fact that he's a strong leader.
26. A 1,000 Yard Rusher in New England
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With talented backs Danny Woodhead, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and rookies Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley coming to town, there will not be enough carries to go around in New England.
There is also a chance that Green-Ellis, a free agent, will not return in 2011—but even so, the Patriots offense is not designed to give one running back enough carries to produce over 1,000 yards.
25. A Team Sweep Their Division
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The 2010 Oakland Raiders swept the AFC West with an impressive 6-0 record against division rivals, and they missed the playoffs.
In 2011, not one team will sweep their division, playoffs or not.
With parity becoming more prevalent in the NFL and the way the lockout will prevent teams from getting better this offseason, we do not see any team going 6-0 against division opponents.
24. An NFC West Team in the Super Bowl
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During the 2010 season, the NFC West failed to produce a team with a winning record. And then, the Seattle Seahawks shocked the defending champion New Orleans Saints in the opening round of the playoffs.
The Seahawks made it one round farther than anyone expected in the playoffs, but do not look for your next Super Bowl champion to come from the NFC West.
The Seahawks, Cardinals, Rams and 49ers are all incredibly young teams with huge, crippling holes on the roster that will keep them from emerging as a title threat.
23. An AFC West Team in the Super Bowl
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When looking at the AFC West, you see a promising team like the Kansas City Chiefs, a perennial contender in the San Diego Chargers and then two cellar dwellers in the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders.
Kansas City will win the division again in 2011, but they are not good enough yet to see a Super Bowl appearance.
Maybe next year.
22. The Denver Broncos Using One Quarterback All Season
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With established starter Kyle Orton, promising sophomore Tim Tebow and former first-rounder Brady Quinn all on the roster, the Denver Broncos will not find themselves using just one quarterback for all 16 games.
Our prediction is that Orton begins the season as the starter, gives way to Tebow, and at some point, Quinn will come in relief to Tebow.
There's also the chance that Orton gets traded and then Tebow starts and Quinn backs him up, which leads to playing time due to injury.
21. DeAngelo Hall in the Pro Bowl
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DeAngelo Hall's inclusion on the NFC Pro Bowl team last year highlights the ridiculousness of the entire game and the way the rosters are selected.
Hall may have defended 16 passes and notched six interceptions, thank you Jay Cutler, but his other numbers show why he shouldn't have been voted to the Pro Bowl.
In fact, Football Outsiders ranked him as the third worst cornerback in the NFL in 2010.
20. Tony Sparano Lasting All Season in Miami
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Tony Sparano started out in the NFL with a hot streak and an 11-5 record in 2008. He then fell on his face with back-to-back 7-9 seasons in 2009 and 2010.
Sparano is under pressure to do better in 2011—or else.
The Miami ownership is getting impatient. They want a winner and have the talent to produce more than seven wins.
Unfortunately for Sparano, he won't be around to see it happen.
A slow start in Miami will result in a midseason firing of Tony Sparano. We'll even predict that it happens after the Week 12 game against Dallas.
19. Gary Kubiak Fired in Houston
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Gary Kubiak is on the hot seat.
If the Houston Texans do not win in 2011, Kubiak will be fired.
Lucky for him, the Texans will win the AFC South in 2011 and make ownership proud enough to extend Kubiak's contract.
18. A Winning Record in the NFC West
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Here are two predictions for the price of one:
The St. Louis Rams will win the NFC West.
And they'll do it with a 7-9 record.
The NFC West sums up everything that is wrong with the current NFL playoff system. A 7-9 division winner will host a 10-6 wild card team. How does that make sense?
Either way, in 2011, the NFC West will once again send a team with a losing record into the playoffs.
17. Donovan McNabb in Arizona
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Donovan McNabb has been linked to many teams this summer as final destinations for him once the Washington Redskins decide to cut or trade the veteran quarterback.
One team you can cross off your list is the Arizona Cardinals.
McNabb is not only a bad fit for the Cardinals roster, the Cardinals have much bigger plans at quarterback.
Those plans include McNabb's old backup, Kevin Kolb.
16. Nnamdi Asomugha in Oakland
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Many Oakland Raider fans are holding out hope that they will be able to re-sign cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha. They won't be able to.
Asomugha has publicly not ruled out returning to Oakland, but why would he return to a lackluster team when he could literally pick his spot in the NFL?
Asomugha will want to win a ring, and he'll want a big pay day.
And that is why he will sign with the Philadelphia Eagles.
15. Alex Smith Starting All 16 Games in San Francisco
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Here's a fun fact: Alex Smith has not played an entire season since 2006.
It seems pretty obvious to say this, but Smith will not start all 16 games in San Francisco this season.
Smith is being handed the starting quarterback job in San Francisco, even though he's a free agent. We believe this is an error.
Thankfully, the 49ers have Colin Kaepernick to rely on if and when Smith goes down.
14. Vince Young as a Minnesota Viking
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Vince Young is due a $4.25 million signing bonus on the 10th day of league business once the lockout is lifted and the official league year begins.
That basically means he will not be a Tennessee Titan much longer.
We also do not believe Young will be a Viking, despite reports that he is working out with Adrian Peterson every day in Houston.
Young will find a new home in the NFL—it just won't be in Minneapolis.
13. Albert Haynesworth in a Redskins Jersey
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In what may go down as the worst contract in professional sports history, the Washington Redskins signed him to a seven-year, $100 million contract after the 2008 season.
Two years later, Haynesworth is on his way out.
Playing in only eight games during the 2010 season, Haynesworth posted career-lows with 13 tackles and just 2.5 sacks.
He's also been a malcontent regarding the Redskins decision to run a 3-4 defense.
The combination of the two will lead to Haynesworth being cut as soon as possible.
12. DeMarcus Ware Leading the NFL in Sacks
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In two of his five seasons in the NFL, DeMarcus Ware has led the NFL in sacks twice, including during the 2010 season.
Ware will not be seeing a repeat performance in 2011.
While we do expect a double-digit number from Ware next season, he will face stiff competition from Clay Matthews and Tamba Hali for the sack crown in 2011.
11. Carson Palmer in Cincinnati
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Carson Palmer issued a famous "trade me or I will retire" ultimatum to Bengals' ownership after the 2010 season.
Bengals' owner Mike Brown replied with, "buh bye."
Brown has called Palmer's bluff and is prepared to let him sit out the 2011 season, or retire, if he does not want to play for the Bengals this year.
We don't buy it.
Brown will eventually give in the the media pressure and calls from other NFL general managers and trade Palmer away before the season starts.
10. Kyle Orton in Denver
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We mentioned before in this article that Kyle Orton may start in Denver, and that he may be traded.
That's what we like to call "foreshadowing."
Orton will not be in Denver for the entire 2011 season, even if he begins it there.
Orton's value is only going up as the season nears, and the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Redskins struggle to find a starting quarterback.
9. Kevin Kolb in Philadelphia
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Kevin Kolb did things the right way by formally asking the Eagles to trade him to a team where he can contend for a starting quarterback position if the Eagles will not give him a fair chance to start in 2011.
Andy Reid has obliged and will trade Kolb once the lockout is lifted.
The Eagles will have no shortage of interest, namely from the Cardinals and Seahawks.
In the end, we see Arizona forking over the two second-round picks and defensive player it will take to secure the quarterback.
8. Steve Smith in Carolina
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As one of many star players who have asked to be traded or released this season, Steve Smith is a favorite to be traded to a team where he has a chance to win a ring as his career comes to an end.
Smith has already been linked to the New England Patriots, Chicago Bears and San Diego Chargers. He would be an immediate impact in all three cities.
We like the Chicago connection best, and we also believe Smith would explode in Mike Martz' offensive system.
7. A 2,000-Yard Rusher
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In the history of the NFL, six players have amassed 2,000 yards rushing. The 2011 season will not produce No. 7.
With a lockout limiting practices and workouts this summer, NFL teams will rely heavily on the passing game, which requires less intricate blocking schemes and is more of a one-on-one competition largely won by athleticism alone.
This, combined with defenses being better against the run early in the season, will keep rushers from amassing the necessary numbers to break 2,000 yards.
6. More Than 20 Rushing Touchdowns from One Player
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Much like the potential for 2,000 yards rushing from one player this coming season, there will not be a running back with more than 20 rushing touchdowns in 2011.
The No. 20 has been a hard level to surpass in NFL history, but it has been done 11 times before. It just won't happen again in 2011.
The NFL is going to a running back by committee approach with more specialized players running the ball in the red zone while others carry the load between the 20s.
This will keep us from seeing Madden-esque numbers from running backs.
5. Peyton Manning Throwing for 30 Touchdowns
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Peyton Manning has thrown for 30 touchdowns or more six times in his illustrious NFL season. The 2011 season will not mark No. 7.
Manning's skills and numbers are on the decline. Many will point out that Manning threw for the most yards of his career, but he also had his lowest yards per attempt since his rookie season.
Many do not want to hear that Manning is getting worse, but he is.
4. Cam Newton Winning a Game
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Cam Newton was the much-hyped No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 NFL draft by the Carolina Panthers.
Coming off a 2-14 season and potentially losing the best player in team history (Steve Smith) will not help things in Newton's first year.
There are those who believe Newton should be thrown to the wolves and allowed to start from day one. We are not in that group, but we do think Newton will be handed the job full-time around midseason.
In his time as a starter, Cam Newton will not win one game.
Bank on it.
3. The Colts in the Playoffs
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A nine-year streak of playoff appearances will end in 2011 when the Indianapolis Colts lose the division to the Houston Texans and fail to secure a wild card birth.
A ragged defense with no one to stop the run, an aging quarterback and an unproven offensive line will all be responsible parties in the ending of a dynamic run through the last decade.
As it's said, all good things must come to an end.
2. Games Lost to the NFL Lockout
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Many are afraid that the on-going NFL lockout will last well into the regular season, causing a cancellation of games and complete hysteria among NFL fans.
Call me an optimist, but I just do not see the NFL and the players letting that happen.
Too much money, publicity and reputation is at stake for either side to allow cancellation of regular season games.
And there's of course one other reason...
1. Dry Eyes on September 11
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The 2011 football season will kick off on a special anniversary.
Ten years ago to the day, America was attacked by terrorists in one of the worst days in the history of our country.
It seems small in comparison, but the NFL has planned a special opening weekend with a 9/11 memorial at the center of it.
In large part because of the emotion surrounding that date, we firmly believe the NFL will come together and get a deal done with the players association in time for the regular season to begin without a loss of games.
And when the national anthem is sang across the country in 16 different stadiums, there will not be a dry eye.
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