The Value of Kevin Kolb: Rebuking Mike Lombardi and Comparing to Matt Schaub

The biggest question of this offseason for Eagles fans hasn't been will we trade Kevin Kolb, it has been what will we get for him.  There has been endless speculation and rumors about what the Eagles will get in return for the NFL's hottest backup quarterback.  By most counts, a first-round draft pick is considered to be the standard speculative choice.

However, Greg Esposito over at ArizonaSports.com wrote about a radio interview, hosted by Sports 620 KTAR, with ex-NFL personnel man and current NFL Network analyst Mike Lombardi.  He is a well-respected figure in the NFL community and does have applicable knowledge on talent evaluation as it was his job with multiple teams. 

Apparently, Lombardi doesn't think Kolb is worth a first-round draft pick.  His exact quote was that "It's hard to watch tape on Kevin Kolb and think he's worth a first round pick".

He then elaborates a little bit:

"When you study the tape on Kolb, it's not overly impressive," he said. "It's very disappointing at times. I know Philadelphia doesn't like me when I say this, I think ultimately if he did have to play Philly would have been a 7-9 team. If it wasn't for Michael Vick it would have been bad."

Let me say that my intention here is not to disrespect Lombardi.  But I do take issue with his opinion and wanted to provide my rebuttal as to why Kolb is, in fact, worth a first-round draft pick.

Kevin Kolb's Problem Was the Offensive Line

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PHILADELPHIA - SEPTEMBER 12: Kevin Kolb #4 of the Philadelphia Eagles is sacked by Clay Matthews #52 during a game against the Green Bay Packers at Lincoln Financial Field on September 12, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty

There were times last season when Kolb looked less than stellar but it was mainly when he was under duress.  Many QBs look bad when they are getting hit, sacked and pressured much of the time. 

Lombardi might be right that the Eagles would have went 7-9 with Kolb as the starter.  But that would have been more a reflection of the offensive line's inability to provide proper protection along with Andy Reid's refusal to have a balanced run/pass ratio. 

Last year, the difference was not Mike Vick's accuracy or prowess at reading defenses; it was his incredible athleticism that kept him in the starting lineup.  Tom Brady and Peyton Manning would have had a bad year behind that offensive line.  If Vick and Kolb's athletic ability were even, Kolb would have remained the starter because he is the more accurate QB.

Mike Lombardi Evaluated the Talent of Jamarcus Russell

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OAKLAND, CA - JANUARY 03: JaMarcus Russell #2 of the Oakland Raiders walks off the field against the Baltimore Ravens during an NFL game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on January 3, 2010 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Then we have to take into consideration just how well Lombardi can actually judge talent at the QB position. 

The last draft he was in charge of as a Senior Personnel Executive for the Oakland Raiders was in April of 2007.  The Raiders had the No. 1 overall pick in the draft and ended up selecting the most monumental bust in the history of the NFL...Jamarcus Russell. 

Could he have been anymore wrong about a quarterback?  Now having said all that, let's talk about placing a value on Kevin Kolb.

Drafting Christian Ponder with the 12th Pick Illustrates Supply and Demand

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TALLAHASSEE, FL - NOVEMBER 27: Christian Ponder #7 of the Florida State Seminoles throws for a first down during a game against the Florida Gators at Doak Campbell Stadium on November 27, 2010 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

When you're talking about assessing a player's trade value in the NFL, of course production and game tape come into the equation.  Then there is the aspect we call "projected production." 

Kolb still falls into the perception category of "unkown but promising."  People can justify a higher value placed on a player they think will become a star (thus the projection).  This is especially true when dealing the quarterbacks as they play the single most important position and are the face of the franchise.   

One needs to look no further than this past NFL draft to see how desperate teams are for quarterbacks.  Many teams drafted QBs much earlier than what their talent called for.  This is simply because of the supply and demand rule: The demand is great and the supply is limited. 

This rule also means that Kolb's value diminished a little bit due to the NFL lockout.  Had free agency began prior to the draft, there would have been many more teams in the mix for Kolb's services, thus elevating his value.  This is unfortunate for the Eagles but there will still be a market for him once the league does open for business.

The Matt Schaub Trade

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TOKYO - AUGUST 4: Quarterbacks Michael Vick #7 and Matt Schaub #8 of the Atlanta Falcons sit on a bench during the Falcons training camp on August 4, 2005 at Tokyo Dome in Tokyo, Japan. The Falcons will play the Indianapolis Colts in the American Bowl on

Arguably the biggest factor in negotiating trades is past precedent.  Trades are never really exactly the same as there are always differing circumstances but past precedent usually serves as a guideline or starting point. 

The Matt Schaub trade from Atlanta to Houston in 2007 is probably the most similar trade to Kolb's situation so let's do a comparison of the two quarterbacks and review what Atlanta received as compensation.

When looking at their statistics, I am only going to count games in which Schaub and Kolb either started or saw significant playing time.  I am discounting "garbage time" stats or games where they didn't play much since they really have no significance and only serve to alter their overall stats. 

Comparing Kevin Kolb and Matt Schaub

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DENVER - DECEMBER 26: Quarterback Matt Schaub #8 of the Houston Texans throws a pass against the Denver Broncos during the fourth quarter at INVESCO Field at Mile High on December 26, 2010 in Denver, Colorado. The Denver Broncos defeated the Houston Tex

During his three years with Atlanta, Schaub had four games where he either started or saw extensive playing time.  His stats for these games came to 64/118 for 794 yards, five TDs, four INTs and an average QB rating of 79.1. 

Kolb has started or saw extensive playing time in six games (I threw out the Dallas game at the end of last season because he played with all backups against Dallas' first string).  His stats for these games came to 147/228 for 1,729 yards, 10 TDs, seven INTs and an average QB rating of 93.9.

As you can see, though Kolb has two more games to go by, he certainly has significantly better stats.  And one other key thing to note here is their won/loss record in these games.  Schaub was 0-4 and Kolb was 3-3.  Winning can certainly influence the perception of a QB.

Here is what Atlanta received in compensation for Schaub: two second-round picks and a swap of first-round spots (Atlanta moved up from the 10th spot to the eighth spot).  Moving up from 10th to eighth is worth a fourth-round pick according to the NFL Draft Value Chart.  So in essence, the trade was for two seconds and a fourth.

Kevin Kolb Is Worth a Minimum of a 1st-Round Draft Pick

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CINCINNATI - AUGUST 20: Kevin Kolb #4 of the Philadelphia Eagles throws a pass during the NFL preseason game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on August 20, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Ultimately, given what Schaub garnered in compensation, there is definitely a solid argument that Kolb is worth more. 

Another indirect factor in trade talks and value should also be that if Kolb is traded within the same conference, the price should be higher since the Eagles would be trading him to a competitor (Schaub was an interconference trade). 

At the end of the day, determining value comes down to numerous factors and is a highly subjective art.  Kolb will go to the highest bidder and his value will be set by what the market determines.  I happen to believe that it will be at least a first-round draft pick and most likely a little more.